Jun 25, 25sim 91
2055
3(H)68
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+16MIN
MIN
9-0
8165
DAL
1-9
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx went into Dallas Wings and beat them, 81–65.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
27.8Game score
28
Pts
10
Reb
4
Ast
DAL · top performer
Maddy Siegrist
F · #20
15.8Game score
15
Pts
11
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Dallas Wings · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN9-0
8165
DAL1-9
MIN9-0DAL1-9
MIN
9-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +23 | |
| 32 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +25 | |
| 37 | 28 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +17 | |
| 35 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +21 | |
eFG%.47757 AST/TO1.343 TS%.54729 | ||||||||
| 17 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +20 | |
| 9 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -13 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -12 | |
| 20 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |
| Team | 81 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 11 | 6 | ||
DAL
1-9
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 17 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 | |
| 34 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -13 | |
| 40 | 26 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | |
| 16 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 28 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -22 | |
| 16 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 26 | 15 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| Team | 65 | 41 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 15 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
29
25
Ast
14
Season series
MIN wins series 4-0
May 16MIN99@DAL84
MIN99@DAL84May 22DAL81@MIN85
DAL81@MIN85Jun 8MIN81@DAL65today
MIN81@DAL65todaySep 2DAL71@MIN96
DAL71@MIN96Headlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ DAL
Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 9:37
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 37 min
28 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST
DALM. Siegrist
FGame leader · 26 min
15 PTS · 11 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
MIN beat DAL 81-65. N. Collier paced them with 28 PTS, 10 REB, 4 AST. MIN outscored the other side 24-9 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 27 REB · 23 AST
GS 72
Bench(7)
15 PTS · 10 REB · 2 AST
GS 10
DALstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
41 PTS · 23 REB · 9 AST
GS 20
Bench(5)
24 PTS · 18 REB · 5 AST
GS 17
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDAL3rd Quarter · 9:26 · 46-39
+6pp→ 22% WP
Wings de · lay of game violation
MIN4th Quarter · 9:37 · 60-56
+13pp→ 73% WP
Napheesa Collier · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Courtney Williams assists)
DAL4th Quarter · 6:03 · 64-56
+7pp→ 16% WP
Alanna Smith · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 24 | 22 | 11 | 24 | 81 |
| DAL | 14 | 25 | 17 | 9 | 65 |
Period scoring
MIN won 2 · DAL won 2
24
14
Q1
McBride 10
Quinerly 4
22
25
Q2
Collier 10
Ogunbowale 17
11
17
Q3
Collier 7
Siegrist 8
24
9
Q4
Collier 7
Siegrist 5
MIN
DAL
Shooting comparison
MIN
DAL
43%
29-67
FG
29%
19-65
42%
13-31
3PT
33%
8-24
71%
10-14
FT
83%
19-23
Play-by-play · 381 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 81·DAL 65
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 81·DAL 65
- Q4·1.1
DiJonai Carrington bad pass (Jessica Shepard steals)
·
MIN 81·DAL 65
- Q4·3.1
DiJonai Carrington defensive rebound
MIN 81·DAL 65
- Q4·6.0
Arike Ogunbowale blocks Anastasiia Olairi Kosu 's 2-foot jumper
·
MIN 81·DAL 65
- Q4·26.0
Jessica Shepard defensive rebound
MIN 81·DAL 65
- Q4·30.0
Luisa Geiselsoder misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIN 81·DAL 65
- Q4·33.1
Arike Ogunbowale makes free throw 1 of 1
MIN 81·DAL 65
- Q4·33.1
Maria Kliundikova away from play foul
MIN 81·DAL 64
- Q4·33.1
Wings offensive team rebound
MIN 81·DAL 64
- Q4·35.1
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu blocks JJ Quinerly 's 5-foot driving layup
·
MIN 81·DAL 64
- Q4·39.1
Jessica Shepard makes two point shot
MIN 81·DAL 64
- Q4·40.1
Jessica Shepard offensive rebound
MIN 79·DAL 64
- Q4·41.2
Luisa Geiselsoder blocks Anastasiia Olairi Kosu 's 3-foot layup
·
MIN 79·DAL 64
- Q4·58.2
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu enters the game for Napheesa Collier
·
MIN 79·DAL 64
- Q4·58.2
Alissa Pili enters the game for Kayla McBride
·
MIN 79·DAL 64
- Q4·58.2
Maria Kliundikova enters the game for Alanna Smith
· ·
MIN 79·DAL 64
- Q4·58.2
Jessica Shepard enters the game for Bridget Carleton
·
MIN 79·DAL 64
- Q4·58.2
Diamond Miller enters the game for Natisha Hiedeman
·
MIN 79·DAL 64
- Q4·58.2
Lynx timeout
MIN 79·DAL 64
- Q4·1:00
Arike Ogunbowale lost ball turnover (Napheesa Collier steals)
·
MIN 79·DAL 64
- Q4·1:16
Natisha Hiedeman makes driving layup
MIN 79·DAL 64
- Q4·1:19
JJ Quinerly enters the game for Kaila Charles
·
MIN 77·DAL 64
- Q4·1:19
(01:19) [Lynx] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Lynx] retain their timeout
MIN 77·DAL 64
- Q4·1:19
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 77·DAL 64
- Q4·1:22
DiJonai Carrington personal foul
MIN 77·DAL 64
- Q4·1:33
Napheesa Collier defensive rebound
MIN 77·DAL 64
- Q4·1:35
DiJonai Carrington misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIN 77·DAL 64
- Q4·1:51
Kaila Charles defensive rebound
MIN 77·DAL 64
- Q4·1:53
Alanna Smith misses 26-foot three point jumper
·
MIN 77·DAL 64
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
29-67
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
19-65
43
FG %
29
13-31
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-24
10-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-23
25
Assists
14
6
Turnovers
15
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
Blocks
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
DAL
50.1%
FG%
◀
44.7
46.6%
34.5%
3PT %
32.6
▶37.3%
88.4
PPG
85.4
88.9
21.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
15.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.3