Jul 29, 25sim 92
982
3(H)92
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+6PHX
PHX
27-14
7569
WSH
16-26
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury went into Washington Mystics and beat them, 75–69.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
13.0Game score
12
Pts
11
Reb
9
Ast
WSH · top performer
Shakira Austin
C · #0
15.1Game score
15
Pts
10
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX27-14
7569
WSH16-26
PHX27-14WSH16-26
PHX
27-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 6 | +8 | |
TS%.57671 eFG%.51071 AST/TO2.471 | ||||||||
| 22 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +4 | |
| 28 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 32 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +4 | |
USG%.30999+ TS%.4510 eFG%.3620 | ||||||||
| 24 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 27 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +5 | |
| 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 24 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +12 | |
| Team | 75 | 40 | 22 | 6 | 7 | 10 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown, K. Laksa, K. Williams, L. Held | ||||||||
WSH
16-26
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 29 | 18 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -8 | |
| 27 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | |
| 29 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 31 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | |
| 10 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| 12 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| Team | 69 | 39 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 8 | ||
| DNP: M. Scott | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
38
22
Ast
21
Season series
PHX wins series 3-0
May 25WSH62@PHX68
WSH62@PHX68Jul 27PHX88@WSH72
PHX88@WSH72Sep 4PHX75@WSH69today
PHX75@WSH69todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ WSH
Biggest swing: 23pp · 3rd Quarter · 2:48
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 33 min
12 PTS · 11 REB · 9 AST
WSHS. Austin
CGame leader · 27 min
15 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
PHX beat WSH 75-69. A. Thomas led with 12 PTS, 11 REB, 9 AST. Mystics Coach's Challenge's play in the 3rd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
53 PTS · 33 REB · 20 AST
GS 47
Bench(3)
22 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
GS 16
WSHstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 30 REB · 16 AST
GS 43
Bench(4)
11 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST
GS 10
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWSH3rd Quarter · 2:48 · 53-52
+23pp→ 44% WP
Mystics Coach's Challenge ·
WSH4th Quarter · 5:43 · 65-59
+14pp→ 25% WP
Monique Akoa Makani · shooting foul
PHX4th Quarter · 2:26 · 71-64
+14pp→ 96% WP
Satou Sabally la · ne violation
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 22 | 22 | 17 | 14 | 75 |
| WSH | 16 | 20 | 19 | 14 | 69 |
Period scoring
PHX won 2 · WSH won 1
22
16
Q1
Mack 6
Clark 7
22
20
Q2
Copper 12
Iriafen 6
17
19
Q3
Whitcomb 6
Iriafen 6
14
14
Q4
Thomas 6
Sutton 9
PHX
WSH
Shooting comparison
PHX
WSH
42%
28-67
FG
38%
28-73
38%
13-34
3PT
25%
4-16
67%
6-9
FT
64%
9-14
Play-by-play · 379 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 75·WSH 69
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 75·WSH 69
- Q4·3.1
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
PHX 75·WSH 69
- Q4·6.4
Sonia Citron misses 9-foot jumper
PHX 75·WSH 69
- Q4·7.1
Sonia Citron offensive rebound
PHX 75·WSH 69
- Q4·10.6
Alysha Clark misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHX 75·WSH 69
- Q4·11.6
Shakira Austin offensive rebound
PHX 75·WSH 69
- Q4·15.5
Sonia Citron misses 27-foot three point jumper
PHX 75·WSH 69
- Q4·17.7
Mystics timeout
PHX 75·WSH 69
- Q4·17.7
DeWanna Bonner makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 75·WSH 69
- Q4·17.7
Mercury offensive team rebound
PHX 74·WSH 69
- Q4·17.7
DeWanna Bonner misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 74·WSH 69
- Q4·17.7
Sug Sutton personal foul
PHX 74·WSH 69
- Q4·23.7
Alysha Clark personal foul
PHX 74·WSH 69
−2pp
- Q4·33.0
Kahleah Copper defensive rebound
PHX 74·WSH 69
−1pp
- Q4·36.6
Kiki Iriafen misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 74·WSH 69
−5pp
- Q4·50.3
Satou Sabally makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sami Whitcomb assists)
·
PHX 74·WSH 69
+4pp
- Q4·1:06
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 71·WSH 69
- Q4·1:06
Kiki Iriafen makes layup (Shakira Austin assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 71·WSH 69
+8pp
- Q4·1:11
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
PHX 71·WSH 67
+2pp
- Q4·1:13
Kahleah Copper misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
PHX 71·WSH 67
+4pp
- Q4·1:37
Sug Sutton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sonia Citron assists)
·
PHX 71·WSH 67
+4pp
- Q4·1:55
Alyssa Thomas lost ball turnover (Sonia Citron steals)
·
PHX 71·WSH 64
+2pp
- Q4·2:05
Sonia Citron bad pass (DeWanna Bonner steals)
·
PHX 71·WSH 64
−2pp
- Q4·2:09
Kahleah Copper bad pass (Shakira Austin steals)
·
PHX 71·WSH 64
+2pp
- Q4·2:26
Satou Sabally lane violationBIG MOMENT
PHX 71·WSH 64
−14pp
- Q4·2:26
Kahleah Copper defensive rebound
PHX 71·WSH 64
- Q4·2:26
Shakira Austin misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
PHX 71·WSH 64
−7pp
- Q4·2:26
Satou Sabally shooting foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 71·WSH 64
+7pp
- Q4·2:26
Shakira Austin makes 4-foot two point shot
PHX 71·WSH 64
+0.7pp
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
28-67
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-73
42
FG %
38
13-34
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-16
6-9
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
9-14
22
Assists
21
10
Turnovers
8
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 14 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.30999+- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FTS%.57671
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
- Shakira AustinWSH2.9± 2.6low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
WSH
42.3%
FG%
44.7
▶45.7%
31.4%
3PT %
◀
32.6
28.0%
83.7
PPG
85.4
83.4
17.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶18.7
12.4
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.6