Jul 4, 25sim 95
1675
8(H)92
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2LA
LA
11-14
10199
NY
17-7
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks went into New York Liberty and beat them, 101–99. Decided by 2.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Rickea Jackson
F · #2
19.2Game score
24
Pts
3
Reb
2
Ast
NY · top performer
Sabrina Ionescu
G · #20
27.0Game score
30
Pts
8
Reb
6
Ast
WNBA · Los Angeles Sparks at New York Liberty · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LA11-14
10199
NY17-7
LA11-14NY17-7
LA
11-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 17 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 31 | 17 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 31 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 35 | 20 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
| 38 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +3 | |
| 18 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| Team | 101 | 37 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 12 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, C. Brink, S. Barker | ||||||||
NY
17-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 31 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 29 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
ORB%.08986 DRB%.25386 eFG%.45529 | ||||||||
| 34 | 22 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -5 | |
| 36 | 30 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +9 | |
| 13 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 17 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 19 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| Team | 99 | 33 | 21 | 9 | 6 | 10 | ||
| DNP: J. Sherrod | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
51
FG %
49
24
Ast
21
Season series
NY wins series 2-1
Jul 3LA79@NY89
LA79@NY89Jul 26LA101@NY99today
LA101@NY99todayAug 13NY105@LA97
NY105@LA97Headlines · top performers
Game flowLA ↔ NY
Biggest swing: 45pp · 4th Quarter · 0.1
LAR. Jackson
FGame leader · 31 min
24 PTS · 3 REB · 2 AST
NYS. Ionescu
GGame leader · 36 min30+ point game
30 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
LA beat NY 101-99. R. Jackson led with 24 PTS, 3 REB, 2 AST. LA outscored the other side 35-20 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
NY vs LA
Starters vs bench
production by unitLAstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
82 PTS · 34 REB · 23 AST
GS 66
Bench(3)
19 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST
GS 12
NYstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 23 REB · 20 AST
GS 73
Bench(5)
20 PTS · 10 REB · 1 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY4th Quarter · 2:58 · 93-92
+15pp→ 43% WP
Natasha Cloud · makes 25-foot three pointer
NY4th Quarter · 2:18 · 95-94
+17pp→ 58% WP
Julie Allemand · shooting foul
LA4th Quarter · 0.1 · 101-99
+45pp→ 98% WP
Rickea Jackson · makes driving layup (Dearica Hamby assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 35 | 23 | 16 | 27 | 101 |
| NY | 20 | 25 | 24 | 30 | 99 |
Period scoring
LA won 1 · NY won 3
35
20
Q1
Jackson 17
Ionescu 5
23
25
Q2
Burrell 9
Ionescu 12
16
24
Q3
Stevens 7
Johannes 9
27
30
Q4
Stevens 10
Cloud 9
LA
NY
Shooting comparison
LA
NY
51%
39-76
FG
49%
36-73
41%
11-27
3PT
33%
10-30
67%
12-18
FT
89%
17-19
Play-by-play · 388 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 101·NY 99
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 101·NY 99
- Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Sparks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
LA 101·NY 99
−2pp
- Q4·0.1
Rickea Jackson makes driving layup (Dearica Hamby assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 101·NY 99
−45pp
- Q4·5.2
Sparks Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
LA 99·NY 99
+33pp
- Q4·5.2
Stephanie Talbot personal foulBIG MOMENT
LA 99·NY 99
−34pp
- Q4·23.0
Sparks delay of game violation
LA 99·NY 99
- Q4·23.0
Stephanie Talbot enters the game for Marine Johannes
·
LA 99·NY 99
- Q4·23.0
Sparks Full timeout
LA 99·NY 99
- Q4·23.0
Sabrina Ionescu makes 17-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LA 99·NY 99
+7pp
- Q4·31.1
Jonquel Jones defensive rebound
LA 99·NY 97
+3pp
- Q4·33.1
Kelsey Plum misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LA 99·NY 97
+6pp
- Q4·56.0
Azura Stevens defensive rebound
LA 99·NY 97
−3pp
- Q4·56.0
Natasha Cloud misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
LA 99·NY 97
−9pp
- Q4·1:03
Liberty Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
LA 99·NY 97
−9pp
- Q4·1:03
Azura Stevens makes two point shot (Rickea Jackson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 99·NY 97
−6pp
- Q4·1:08
Julie Allemand defensive rebound
LA 97·NY 97
−3pp
- Q4·1:11
Jonquel Jones misses 26-foot three point shotBIG MOMENT
LA 97·NY 97
−8pp
- Q4·1:17
Julie Allemand bad pass (Leonie Fiebich steals)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 97·NY 97
+11pp
- Q4·1:20
Sparks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
LA 97·NY 97
−8pp
- Q4·1:21
Leonie Fiebich blocks Rickea Jackson 's 2-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
LA 97·NY 97
+7pp
- Q4·1:41
Leonie Fiebich makes 11-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
LA 97·NY 97
+7pp
- Q4·1:58
Kelsey Plum makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
LA 97·NY 95
−9pp
- Q4·2:18
Marine Johannes enters the game for Stephanie TalbotBIG MOMENT
·
LA 95·NY 95
+9pp
- Q4·2:18
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
LA 95·NY 95
−7pp
- Q4·2:18
Julie Allemand shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LA 95·NY 94
+17pp
- Q4·2:18
Sabrina Ionescu makes 2-foot layup (Jonquel Jones assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 95·NY 94
+6pp
- Q4·2:38
Azura Stevens makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Kelsey Plum assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 95·NY 92
−8pp
- Q4·2:58
Natasha Cloud makes 25-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
LA 93·NY 92
+15pp
- Q4·3:06
Kelsey Plum makes finger roll layupBIG MOMENT
LA 93·NY 89
−8pp
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
NY
Home
39-76
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-73
51
FG %
49
11-27
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-30
12-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-19
24
Assists
21
12
Turnovers
10
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 15 players in cohort
Jonquel JonesNY · CORB%.08986
Breanna StewartNY · FUSG%.27771
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
NY
50.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
45.6%
34.3%
3PT %
32.6
▶35.3%
91.6
PPG
◀
85.4
86.6
21.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.7
16.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.4