Jun 29, 25sim 96
1784
11(H)81
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+23MIN
LA
4-8
78101
MIN
10-1
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx held off Los Angeles Sparks, 101–78. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Rickea Jackson
F · #2
13.9Game score
18
Pts
5
Reb
2
Ast
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
33.2Game score
32
Pts
8
Reb
6
Ast
WNBA · Los Angeles Sparks at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LA4-8
78101
MIN10-1
LA4-8MIN10-1
LA
4-8
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -13 | |
| 18 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -22 | |
| 36 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -14 | |
| 33 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -16 | |
| 28 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -24 | |
| 22 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | |
| Team | 78 | 36 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 20 | ||
| DNP: C. Brink, O. Sims, R. Burrell | ||||||||
MIN
10-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +20 | |
| 22 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +16 | |
| 31 | 32 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +22 | |
| 21 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +26 | |
| 18 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +21 | |
| 14 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | |
| 13 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 20 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +9 | |
| 25 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| Team | 101 | 27 | 30 | 9 | 10 | 9 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
57
14
Ast
30
Season series
MIN wins series 4-0
May 18MIN89@LA75
MIN89@LA75Jun 14LA78@MIN101today
LA78@MIN101todayJun 22LA66@MIN82
LA66@MIN82Jul 10MIN91@LA82
MIN91@LA82Headlines · top performers
Game flowLA ↔ MIN
LAR. Jackson
FGame leader · 36 min
18 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 31 min30+ point game
32 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
MIN beat LA 101-78. N. Collier paced them with 32 PTS, 8 REB, 6 AST. MIN outscored the other side 34-15 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs LA
Starters vs bench
production by unitLAstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
56 PTS · 30 REB · 11 AST
GS 37
Bench(5)
22 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
GS 11
MINstarters 61% of ptsStarters(5)
62 PTS · 17 REB · 17 AST
GS 55
Bench(7)
39 PTS · 10 REB · 13 AST
GS 40
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 15 | 11 | 25 | 27 | 78 |
| MIN | 34 | 24 | 20 | 23 | 101 |
Period scoring
LA won 2 · MIN won 2
15
34
Q1
Jackson 5
Collier 16
11
24
Q2
Jackson 3
Collier 10
25
20
Q3
Plum 10
Collier 6
27
23
Q4
Cannon 8
Kliundikova 9
LA
MIN
Shooting comparison
LA
MIN
41%
24-58
FG
57%
41-72
53%
8-15
3PT
41%
12-29
79%
22-28
FT
70%
7-10
Play-by-play · 378 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 78·MIN 101
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 78·MIN 101
- Q4·18.1
Sania Feagin defensive rebound
LA 78·MIN 101
- Q4·22.0
Maria Kliundikova misses 13-foot jumper
LA 78·MIN 101
- Q4·37.2
Liatu King lost ball turnover (Karlie Samuelson steals)
·
LA 78·MIN 101
- Q4·49.1
Natisha Hiedeman makes 3-foot two point shot
LA 78·MIN 101
- Q4·1:03
Shey Peddy makes free throw 1 of 1
LA 78·MIN 99
- Q4·1:03
Maria Kliundikova shooting foul
LA 77·MIN 99
- Q4·1:03
Shey Peddy makes driving layup
LA 77·MIN 99
- Q4·1:13
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes layup
LA 75·MIN 99
- Q4·1:25
Sania Feagin vs. Karlie Samuelson (Maria Kliundikova gains possession)
· ·
LA 75·MIN 97
- Q4·1:25
Maria Kliundikova defensive rebound
LA 75·MIN 97
- Q4·1:26
Maria Kliundikova blocks Sania Feagin 's 5-foot layup
·
LA 75·MIN 97
- Q4·1:43
Natisha Hiedeman makes 24-foot three point jumper (Karlie Samuelson assists)
·
LA 75·MIN 97
- Q4·1:52
Diamond Miller enters the game for Courtney Williams
·
LA 75·MIN 94
- Q4·1:52
Liatu King loose ball foul
LA 75·MIN 94
- Q4·1:52
Sarah Ashlee Barker bad pass
LA 75·MIN 94
- Q4·2:08
Maria Kliundikova makes 3-foot two point shot (Anastasiia Olairi Kosu assists)
·
LA 75·MIN 94
- Q4·2:29
Azura Stevens makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Sarah Ashlee Barker assists)
·
LA 75·MIN 92
- Q4·2:47
Azura Stevens defensive rebound
LA 73·MIN 92
- Q4·2:50
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu misses free throw 2 of 2
LA 73·MIN 92
- Q4·2:50
Azura Stevens enters the game for Emma Cannon
·
LA 73·MIN 92
- Q4·2:50
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 73·MIN 92
- Q4·2:50
Liatu King shooting foul
LA 73·MIN 91
- Q4·2:59
Sania Feagin makes two point shot (Shey Peddy assists)
·
LA 73·MIN 91
- Q4·3:00
Emma Cannon defensive rebound
LA 71·MIN 91
- Q4·3:02
Courtney Williams misses 20-foot jumper
LA 71·MIN 91
- Q4·3:17
Emma Cannon makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 71·MIN 91
- Q4·3:17
Emma Cannon makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 70·MIN 91
- Q4·3:17
Shey Peddy enters the game for Kelsey Plum
·
LA 69·MIN 91
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
24-58
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
41-72
41
FG %
57
8-15
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-29
22-28
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
7-10
14
Assists
30
20
Turnovers
9
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
- Dearica HambyLA16.0± 8.0low
Rebounds
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
MIN
50.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
50.1%
34.3%
3PT %
32.6
34.5%
91.6
PPG
◀
85.4
88.4
21.1
Assists / G
18.0
21.1
16.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶15.3