Jul 26, 25sim 94
6101
9(H)99
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2SEA
SEA
17-17
8078
ATL
21-12
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
eattle Storm went into Atlanta Dream and beat them, 80–78. Decided by 2.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer
Skylar Diggins
G · #4
21.3Game score
21
Pts
3
Reb
11
Ast
ATL · top performer
Brionna Jones
F · #24
16.5Game score
18
Pts
10
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Seattle Storm at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SEA17-17
8078
ATL21-12
SEA17-17ATL21-12
SEA
17-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 16 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
| 25 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 27 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -13 | |
| 34 | 21 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +6 | |
| 34 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | |
USG%.28786 AST/TO1.857 TS%.54843 | ||||||||
| 19 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +12 | |
| 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| Team | 80 | 30 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 6 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, L. Brown | ||||||||
ATL
21-12
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 25 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 28 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -11 | |
| 37 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -3 | |
| 33 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | |
| 36 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | |
| 13 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +12 | |
| 16 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -11 | |
| 12 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | |
| Team | 78 | 37 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 12 | ||
| DNP: T. Thierry, S. Kone, J. Canada | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
47
21
Ast
16
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 31ATL94@SEA87
ATL94@SEA87Jul 3SEA80@ATL79
SEA80@ATL79Aug 14ATL85@SEA75
ATL85@SEA75Aug 16SEA80@ATL78today
SEA80@ATL78todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowSEA ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 32pp · 4th Quarter · 21.0
SEAS. Diggins
GGame leader · 34 min
21 PTS · 3 REB · 11 AST
ATLB. Jones
FGame leader · 25 min
18 PTS · 10 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
SEA beat ATL 80-78. S. Diggins led with 21 PTS, 3 REB, 11 AST. ATL outscored the other side 23-13 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs SEA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSEAstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 20 REB · 18 AST
GS 56
Bench(3)
12 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST
GS 9
ATLstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 27 REB · 10 AST
GS 43
Bench(4)
19 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST
GS 18
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSEA3rd Quarter · 6:11 · 52-43
+27pp→ 82% WP
Rhyne Howard · makes 12-foot pullup jump shot
ATL4th Quarter · 7:25 · 67-63
+21pp→ 30% WP
Nneka Ogwumike · misses 7-foot two point shot
SEA4th Quarter · 21.0 · 79-78
+21pp→ 87% WP
Dream Coach's Challenge ·
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 21 | 19 | 27 | 13 | 80 |
| ATL | 20 | 14 | 21 | 23 | 78 |
Period scoring
SEA won 3 · ATL won 1
21
20
Q1
Ogwumike 8
Gray 5
19
14
Q2
Diggins 6
Jones 3
27
21
Q3
Malonga 6
Howard 11
13
23
Q4
Diggins 7
Ogwumike 18
SEA
ATL
Shooting comparison
SEA
ATL
46%
33-71
FG
47%
27-58
33%
6-18
3PT
15%
2-13
62%
8-13
FT
88%
22-25
Play-by-play · 391 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 80·ATL 78
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 80·ATL 78
−1pp
- Q4·0.5
Dream offensive team rebound
SEA 80·ATL 78
- Q4·0.5
Rhyne Howard misses 9-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
SEA 80·ATL 78
−19pp
- Q4·8.7
Dream timeout
SEA 80·ATL 78
- Q4·8.7
Ezi Magbegor makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 80·ATL 78
−4pp
- Q4·8.7
Brionna Jones enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
SEA 79·ATL 78
- Q4·8.7
Storm offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
SEA 79·ATL 78
+10pp
- Q4·8.7
Ezi Magbegor misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
SEA 79·ATL 78
+6pp
- Q4·8.7
Allisha Gray personal foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 79·ATL 78
−20pp
- Q4·11.1
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Te-Hina Paopao
·
SEA 79·ATL 78
- Q4·11.1
Naz Hillmon enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
SEA 79·ATL 78
- Q4·11.1
Storm Full timeout
SEA 79·ATL 78
−0.8pp
- Q4·14.0
Ezi Magbegor defensive rebound
SEA 79·ATL 78
−4pp
- Q4·14.8
Brittney Sykes blocks Rhyne Howard 's 5-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
SEA 79·ATL 78
−13pp
- Q4·21.0
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Maya Caldwell
·
SEA 79·ATL 78
- Q4·21.0
Nia Coffey defensive rebound
SEA 79·ATL 78
+4pp
- Q4·21.0
Rhyne Howard blocks Skylar Diggins 's 3-foot driving layup
·
SEA 79·ATL 78
−4pp
- Q4·21.0
Dream Full timeout
SEA 79·ATL 78
- Q4·21.0
(00:21) [Dream] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Dream] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
SEA 79·ATL 78
+32pp
- Q4·21.0
Dream Coach's ChallengeBIG MOMENT
SEA 79·ATL 78
−21pp
- Q4·43.2
Storm Full timeout
SEA 79·ATL 78
- Q4·43.2
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SEA 79·ATL 78
−10pp
- Q4·43.2
Nia Coffey enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
SEA 79·ATL 77
- Q4·43.2
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 79·ATL 77
+3pp
- Q4·43.2
Brittney Sykes shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 79·ATL 76
+15pp
- Q4·55.6
Dream Full timeout
SEA 79·ATL 76
- Q4·55.6
Brittney Sykes makes two point shot (Gabby Williams assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 79·ATL 76
−9pp
- Q4·58.8
Rhyne Howard bad pass (Gabby Williams steals)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 77·ATL 76
−12pp
- Q4·1:08
Maya Caldwell defensive rebound
SEA 77·ATL 76
+3pp
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
33-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
27-58
46
FG %
47
6-18
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
2-13
8-13
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
22-25
21
Assists
16
6
Turnovers
12
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28786
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Rhyne HowardATL13.8± 9.6low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Madina OkotATL5.0± 5.3low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
- Stefanie DolsonSEA0.9± 1.3low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Angel ReeseATL1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
ATL
41.6%
FG%
44.7
▶43.6%
34.1%
3PT %
◀
32.6
31.4%
79.5
PPG
85.4
▶83.9
17.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.9
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.9