Jul 4, 25sim 98
1675
8(H)92
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+14MIN
LV
5-6
6276
MIN
11-1
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx held off Las Vegas Aces, 76–62.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
Tiffany Mitchell
G · #3
8.3Game score
10
Pts
5
Reb
0
Ast
MIN · top performer
Courtney Williams
G · #10
14.4Game score
20
Pts
4
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV5-6
6276
MIN11-1
LV5-6MIN11-1
LV
5-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | |
| 33 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -11 | |
| 21 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -17 | |
| 34 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | |
| 31 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -2 | |
| 12 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 14 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 15 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -13 | |
| Team | 62 | 34 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 17 | ||
| DNP: A. Wilson, M. Gustafson | ||||||||
MIN
11-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +13 | |
| 31 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +11 | |
| 19 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -12 | |
| 36 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +10 | |
| 32 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | |
| 14 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +16 | |
| 25 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +21 | |
| Team | 76 | 40 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | ||
| DNP: A. Kosu | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
36
FG %
38
18
Ast
20
Season series
MIN wins series 3-1
Jun 18LV62@MIN76today
LV62@MIN76todayJul 25LV78@MIN109
LV78@MIN109Aug 2MIN111@LV58
MIN111@LV58Sep 5MIN87@LV97
MIN87@LV97Headlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 9pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:56
LVT. Mitchell
GGame leader · 21 min
10 PTS · 5 REB · 0 AST
MINC. Williams
GGame leader · 32 min
20 PTS · 4 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
MIN beat LV 76-62. C. Williams led with 20 PTS, 4 REB, 5 AST. MIN outscored the other side 26-13 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
47 PTS · 26 REB · 16 AST
GS 28
Bench(5)
15 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST
GS 5
MINstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
52 PTS · 30 REB · 15 AST
GS 41
Bench(5)
24 PTS · 10 REB · 5 AST
GS 22
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMIN1st Quarter · 3:00 · 12-13
+9pp→ 68% WP
Courtney Williams · makes 1-foot layup (Alanna Smith assists)
LV3rd Quarter · 5:13 · 43-40
+9pp→ 54% WP
Aaliyah Nye · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jackie Young assists)
LV3rd Quarter · 3:56 · 46-45
+9pp→ 46% WP
Jewell Loyd · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jackie Young assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 18 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 62 |
| MIN | 15 | 15 | 26 | 20 | 76 |
Period scoring
LV won 2 · MIN won 2
18
15
Q1
Mitchell 6
Collier 7
21
15
Q2
Young 6
Bell 6
13
26
Q3
Nye 5
Miller 7
10
20
Q4
Loyd 3
Williams 12
LV
MIN
Shooting comparison
LV
MIN
36%
23-64
FG
38%
29-76
38%
9-24
3PT
22%
5-23
78%
7-9
FT
76%
13-17
Play-by-play · 389 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 62·MIN 76
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 62·MIN 76
- Q4·5.1
Alanna Smith defensive rebound
LV 62·MIN 76
- Q4·8.2
Kierstan Bell misses 6-foot step back jumpshot
LV 62·MIN 76
- Q4·18.1
Alanna Smith makes free throw 1 of 1
LV 62·MIN 76
- Q4·18.1
Jackie Young shooting foul
LV 62·MIN 75
- Q4·18.1
Alanna Smith makes two point shot
LV 62·MIN 75
- Q4·18.2
Alanna Smith offensive rebound
LV 62·MIN 73
- Q4·21.1
Bridget Carleton misses 31-foot three point jumper
LV 62·MIN 73
- Q4·35.1
Bridget Carleton offensive rebound
LV 62·MIN 73
- Q4·38.0
Courtney Williams misses 19-foot pullup jump shot
LV 62·MIN 73
- Q4·58.1
Jackie Young bad pass (Kayla McBride steals)
·
LV 62·MIN 73
- Q4·1:13
Alanna Smith makes two point shot (Courtney Williams assists)
·
LV 62·MIN 73
- Q4·1:20
Alanna Smith defensive rebound
LV 62·MIN 71
- Q4·1:22
Jewell Loyd misses two point shot
LV 62·MIN 71
- Q4·1:28
(01:28) [Lynx] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Lynx] charged with a timeout
LV 62·MIN 71
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:28
Lynx Full timeout
LV 62·MIN 71
- Q4·1:28
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 62·MIN 71
- Q4·1:29
Courtney Williams blocks Jackie Young 's 2-foot two point shot
·
LV 62·MIN 71
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:31
Jewell Loyd defensive rebound
LV 62·MIN 71
- Q4·1:34
Kayla McBride misses two point shot
LV 62·MIN 71
- Q4·1:48
Kierstan Bell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Chelsea Gray assists)
·
LV 62·MIN 71
- Q4·2:01
Alanna Smith out of bounds bad pass turnover
LV 59·MIN 71
- Q4·2:22
Chelsea Gray makes 15-foot jumper (Jewell Loyd assists)
·
LV 59·MIN 71
- Q4·2:41
Courtney Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 57·MIN 71
- Q4·2:41
Lynx offensive team rebound
LV 57·MIN 70
- Q4·2:41
Courtney Williams misses free throw 1 of 2
LV 57·MIN 70
- Q4·2:41
Kierstan Bell shooting foul
LV 57·MIN 70
- Q4·3:00
Jewell Loyd makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jackie Young assists)
·
LV 57·MIN 70
- Q4·3:02
Jackie Young offensive rebound
LV 54·MIN 70
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
23-64
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-76
36
FG %
38
9-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-23
7-9
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-17
18
Assists
20
17
Turnovers
8
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
Rebounds
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
- Olivia MilesMIN1.2± 1.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
MIN
49.7%
FG%
44.9
▶51.7%
34.9%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.3%
91.0
PPG
◀
86.0
89.7
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
21.3
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.4