Jun 18, 25sim 98
1762
8(H)76
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+17MIN
WSH
8-10
7592
MIN
15-2
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx held off Washington Mystics, 92–75.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
WSH · top performer
Lucy Olsen
G · #33
16.8Game score
19
Pts
1
Reb
3
Ast
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
21.6Game score
28
Pts
5
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Washington Mystics at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
WSH8-10
7592
MIN15-2
WSH8-10MIN15-2
WSH
8-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | |
| 21 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -16 | |
| 23 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | |
USG%.28780 ORB%.03740 DRB%.12540 | ||||||||
| 29 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -15 | |
| 28 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -21 | |
| 20 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | |
| 18 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | |
| 19 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 17 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| Team | 75 | 35 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 20 | ||
| DNP: S. Sutton, G. Amoore | ||||||||
MIN
15-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 28 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +22 | |
| 28 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +25 | |
| 31 | 28 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +20 | |
| 28 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +21 | |
| 26 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +11 | |
| 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -14 | |
| 14 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 21 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| Team | 92 | 30 | 24 | 8 | 5 | 6 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
46
15
Ast
24
Season series
MIN wins series 2-1
Jun 25MIN64@WSH68
MIN64@WSH68Jul 4WSH75@MIN92today
WSH75@MIN92todayAug 8WSH76@MIN80
WSH76@MIN80Headlines · top performers
Game flowWSH ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 1:34
WSHL. Olsen
GGame leader · 17 min
19 PTS · 1 REB · 3 AST
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 31 min
28 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
MIN beat WSH 92-75. N. Collier paced them with 28 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST. MIN outscored the other side 27-14 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs WSH
Starters vs bench
production by unitWSHstarters 43% of ptsStarters(5)
32 PTS · 20 REB · 8 AST
GS 8
Bench(5)
43 PTS · 15 REB · 7 AST
GS 36
MINstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 21 REB · 19 AST
GS 60
Bench(6)
26 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST
GS 17
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWSH2nd Quarter · 7:45 · 27-18
+8pp→ 51% WP
Sonia Citron · makes 23-foot three point jumper
MIN2nd Quarter · 2:58 · 33-34
+8pp→ 74% WP
Bridget Carleton · makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Natisha Hiedeman assists)
MIN2nd Quarter · 1:34 · 36-37
+9pp→ 74% WP
Kayla McBride · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alanna Smith assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 24 | 14 | 14 | 23 | 75 |
| MIN | 16 | 27 | 27 | 22 | 92 |
Period scoring
WSH won 2 · MIN won 2
24
16
Q1
Austin 4
Williams 4
14
27
Q2
Olsen 6
Collier 10
14
27
Q3
Edwards 6
Collier 9
23
22
Q4
Olsen 7
Collier 9
WSH
MIN
Shooting comparison
WSH
MIN
45%
27-60
FG
46%
37-80
15%
3-20
3PT
35%
9-26
78%
18-23
FT
100%
9-9
Play-by-play · 386 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 75·MIN 92
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 75·MIN 92
- Q4·1.0
Diamond Miller defensive rebound
WSH 75·MIN 92
- Q4·4.0
Aaliyah Edwards misses 7-foot two point shot
WSH 75·MIN 92
- Q4·20.0
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes two point shot
WSH 75·MIN 92
- Q4·20.1
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu offensive rebound
WSH 75·MIN 90
- Q4·24.1
Natisha Hiedeman misses 24-foot three point jumper
WSH 75·MIN 90
- Q4·38.1
Aaliyah Edwards makes two point shot (Sika Kone assists)
·
WSH 75·MIN 90
- Q4·45.1
Emily Engstler defensive rebound
WSH 73·MIN 90
- Q4·48.1
Diamond Miller misses 2-foot two point shot
WSH 73·MIN 90
- Q4·1:08
Sika Kone out of bounds lost ball turnover
WSH 73·MIN 90
- Q4·1:24
Sika Kone makes free throw clear path 2 of 2
WSH 73·MIN 90
- Q4·1:24
Sika Kone makes free throw clear path 1 of 2
WSH 72·MIN 90
- Q4·1:24
(01:24) [Mystics] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
WSH 71·MIN 90
- Q4·1:24
Natisha Hiedeman clear path foul
WSH 71·MIN 90
- Q4·1:27
Aaliyah Edwards defensive rebound
WSH 71·MIN 90
- Q4·1:28
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu misses two point shot
WSH 71·MIN 90
- Q4·1:33
Maria Kliundikova defensive rebound
WSH 71·MIN 90
- Q4·1:36
Emily Engstler misses 23-foot three point jumper
WSH 71·MIN 90
- Q4·1:54
Natisha Hiedeman makes 3-foot two point shot
WSH 71·MIN 90
- Q4·2:06
Jade Melbourne enters the game for Brittney Sykes
·
WSH 71·MIN 88
- Q4·2:06
Aaliyah Edwards out of bounds bad pass turnover
WSH 71·MIN 88
- Q4·2:21
Alissa Pili makes 23-foot three point jumper (Natisha Hiedeman assists)
·
WSH 71·MIN 88
- Q4·2:41
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 71·MIN 85
- Q4·2:41
Sika Kone enters the game for Lucy Olsen
·
WSH 70·MIN 85
- Q4·2:41
Maria Kliundikova enters the game for Jessica Shepard
·
WSH 70·MIN 85
- Q4·2:41
Alissa Pili enters the game for Napheesa Collier
·
WSH 70·MIN 85
- Q4·2:41
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu enters the game for Kayla McBride
·
WSH 70·MIN 85
- Q4·2:41
Natisha Hiedeman enters the game for Courtney Williams
·
WSH 70·MIN 85
- Q4·2:41
Diamond Miller enters the game for Bridget Carleton
·
WSH 70·MIN 85
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
27-60
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
37-80
45
FG %
46
3-20
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-26
18-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
9-9
15
Assists
24
20
Turnovers
6
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 14 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28780
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
- Natasha HowardMIN3.7± 2.3low
Blocks
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
MIN
44.8%
FG%
44.9
▶51.7%
28.8%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.3%
82.8
PPG
86.0
▶89.7
17.5
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.3
15.7
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶15.4