Jun 14, 25sim 96
678
8(H)101
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3LV
LV
8-8
8481
PHX
12-5
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces went into Phoenix Mercury and beat them, 84–81. Decided by 3.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
24.6Game score
26
Pts
18
Reb
7
Ast
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
15.7Game score
16
Pts
7
Reb
8
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV8-8
8481
PHX12-5
LV8-8PHX12-5
LV
8-8
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 9 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | |
| 35 | 26 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +7 | |
| 35 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +9 | |
| 30 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
| 35 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| 21 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | |
| 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 20 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +12 | |
| Team | 84 | 36 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | ||
| DNP: K. Bell, M. Gustafson, E. Kitley | ||||||||
PHX
12-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | |
TS%.57671 eFG%.51071 AST/TO2.471 | ||||||||
| 18 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | |
| 29 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
| 30 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +4 | |
USG%.30999+ TS%.4510 eFG%.3620 | ||||||||
| 14 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 12 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -8 | |
| 15 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +6 | |
| 28 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 20 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| Team | 81 | 35 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | ||
| DNP: M. Musa, K. Williams, L. Held | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
38
20
Ast
19
Playoff series
LV wins series 4-0
Oct 4PHX86@LV89
PHX86@LV89Oct 5PHX78@LV91
PHX78@LV91Oct 9LV90@PHX88
LV90@PHX88Oct 11LV97@PHX86
LV97@PHX86Headlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 22pp · 4th Quarter · 8:54
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 35 min
26 PTS · 18 REB · 7 AST
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 33 min
16 PTS · 7 REB · 8 AST
How it ended
LV beat PHX 84-81. A. Wilson paced them with 26 PTS, 18 REB, 7 AST. LV outscored the other side 19-10 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
60 PTS · 30 REB · 19 AST
GS 47
Bench(4)
24 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
GS 19
PHXstarters 65% of ptsStarters(5)
53 PTS · 23 REB · 14 AST
GS 33
Bench(4)
28 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST
GS 24
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX4th Quarter · 2:34 · 75-75
+21pp→ 56% WP
Kalani Brown · makes two point shot
LV4th Quarter · 1:49 · 77-77
+21pp→ 60% WP
Kalani Brown · shooting foul
PHX4th Quarter · 8:54 · 59-54
+22pp→ 22% WP
Kahleah Copper · makes free throw 2 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 15 | 25 | 19 | 25 | 84 |
| PHX | 21 | 19 | 10 | 31 | 81 |
Period scoring
LV won 2 · PHX won 2
15
21
Q1
Gray 4
Copper 5
25
19
Q2
Wilson 8
Thomas 6
19
10
Q3
Wilson 10
Sabally 6
25
31
Q4
Young 9
Whitcomb 9
LV
PHX
Shooting comparison
LV
PHX
43%
26-60
FG
38%
27-71
38%
9-24
3PT
42%
10-24
88%
23-26
FT
81%
17-21
Play-by-play · 402 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 84·PHX 80
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 84·PHX 80
−0.7pp
- Q4·1.1
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
LV 84·PHX 80
- Q4·1.1
Sami Whitcomb misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LV 84·PHX 80
−8pp
- Q4·6.1
Tiffany Mitchell enters the game for Aaliyah Nye
·
LV 84·PHX 80
- Q4·6.1
Kathryn Westbeld enters the game for Kalani Brown
·
LV 84·PHX 80
- Q4·6.1
Mercury Full timeout
LV 84·PHX 80
- Q4·6.1
Kalani Brown defensive rebound
LV 84·PHX 80
- Q4·7.0
Aaliyah Nye misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LV 84·PHX 80
+6pp
- Q4·7.0
Aaliyah Nye makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 84·PHX 80
−0.7pp
- Q4·7.0
Alyssa Thomas personal take foulBIG MOMENT
LV 83·PHX 80
−9pp
- Q4·9.1
Aaliyah Nye defensive rebound
LV 83·PHX 80
−5pp
- Q4·12.1
Sami Whitcomb misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LV 83·PHX 80
−13pp
- Q4·22.1
A'ja Wilson makes driving layup (Chelsea Gray assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 83·PHX 80
−15pp
- Q4·34.1
Jackie Young offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LV 81·PHX 80
−8pp
- Q4·36.1
Aaliyah Nye misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LV 81·PHX 80
+8pp
- Q4·49.1
Chelsea Gray defensive rebound
LV 81·PHX 80
−3pp
- Q4·52.1
Satou Sabally misses 27-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LV 81·PHX 80
−7pp
- Q4·57.1
Kahleah Copper offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LV 81·PHX 80
+7pp
- Q4·59.0
Chelsea Gray blocks Kahleah Copper 's 7-foot driving layup
·
LV 81·PHX 80
+3pp
- Q4·1:03
Chelsea Gray kicked ball violationBIG MOMENT
LV 81·PHX 80
−10pp
- Q4·1:08
Mercury Full timeout
LV 81·PHX 80
- Q4·1:21
Jackie Young makes 5-foot layup (Chelsea Gray assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 81·PHX 80
−7pp
- Q4·1:25
Aces Full timeout
LV 79·PHX 80
- Q4·1:25
Kahleah Copper makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sami Whitcomb assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 79·PHX 80
+17pp
- Q4·1:49
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LV 79·PHX 77
+7pp
- Q4·1:49
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 78·PHX 77
−3pp
- Q4·1:49
Kalani Brown shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LV 77·PHX 77
−21pp
- Q4·2:08
Satou Sabally makes 4-foot layup (Alyssa Thomas assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 77·PHX 77
+13pp
- Q4·2:22
Jackie Young makes driving layup (A'ja Wilson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 77·PHX 75
−12pp
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
26-60
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
27-71
43
FG %
38
9-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-24
23-26
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-21
20
Assists
19
12
Turnovers
11
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 11 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.30999+- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FTS%.57671
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
PHX
49.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
42.3%
34.9%
3PT %
◀
32.6
31.4%
91.0
PPG
◀
85.4
83.7
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.7
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.4