Jul 16, 25sim 96
577
9(H)98
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+9SEA
SEA
12-7
7970
NY
12-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
eattle Storm went into New York Liberty and beat them, 79–70.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer
Gabby Williams
F · #5
17.4Game score
16
Pts
7
Reb
5
Ast
NY · top performer
Sabrina Ionescu
G · #20
17.0Game score
22
Pts
9
Reb
6
Ast
WNBA · Seattle Storm at New York Liberty · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SEA12-7
7970
NY12-6
SEA12-7NY12-6
SEA
12-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 31 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +13 | |
| 28 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +11 | |
| 35 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +17 | |
| 32 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 17 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +9 | |
| 10 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 79 | 35 | 21 | 11 | 6 | 10 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson | ||||||||
NY
12-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -15 | |
DRB%.24980 USG%.28360 ORB%.05160 | ||||||||
| 32 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -20 | |
| 22 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -13 | |
| 24 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | |
| 32 | 22 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -11 | |
| 20 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +6 | |
| 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| 15 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| Team | 70 | 36 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 15 | ||
| DNP: J. Jones | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
35
21
Ast
17
Season series
SEA wins series 2-1
Jun 22NY79@SEA89
NY79@SEA89Jul 6SEA79@NY70today
SEA79@NY70todaySep 6NY84@SEA76
NY84@SEA76Headlines · top performers
Game flowSEA ↔ NY
Biggest swing: 27pp · 4th Quarter · 9:28
SEAG. Williams
FGame leader · 31 min
16 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST
NYS. Ionescu
GGame leader · 32 min
22 PTS · 9 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
SEA beat NY 79-70. G. Williams led with 16 PTS, 7 REB, 5 AST. SEA outscored the other side 22-6 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
NY vs SEA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSEAstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
63 PTS · 22 REB · 21 AST
GS 55
Bench(5)
16 PTS · 13 REB · 0 AST
GS 15
NYstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
53 PTS · 24 REB · 15 AST
GS 35
Bench(6)
17 PTS · 12 REB · 2 AST
GS 13
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY3rd Quarter · 6:43 · 50-46
+13pp→ 42% WP
Sabrina Ionescu · misses driving floating jump shot
SEA3rd Quarter · 1:22 · 58-50
+14pp→ 87% WP
Nyara Sabally · shooting foul
SEA4th Quarter · 9:28 · 65-51
+27pp→ 95% WP
Rebekah Gardner · makes free throw 1 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 22 | 19 | 22 | 16 | 79 |
| NY | 18 | 26 | 6 | 20 | 70 |
Period scoring
SEA won 2 · NY won 2
22
18
Q1
Magbegor 6
Ionescu 5
19
26
Q2
Diggins 6
Ionescu 15
22
6
Q3
Ogwumike 6
Cloud 8
16
20
Q4
Malonga 6
Burke 7
SEA
NY
Shooting comparison
SEA
NY
45%
32-71
FG
35%
24-68
29%
5-17
3PT
38%
9-24
71%
10-14
FT
81%
13-16
Play-by-play · 371 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 79·NY 70
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 79·NY 70
- Q4·9.1
Jaylyn Sherrod bad pass (Zia Cooke steals)
·
SEA 79·NY 70
- Q4·25.0
Nyara Sabally defensive rebound
SEA 79·NY 70
- Q4·29.1
Zia Cooke misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
SEA 79·NY 70
- Q4·37.0
Storm Full timeout
SEA 79·NY 70
- Q4·52.1
Nyara Sabally makes two point shot (Jaylyn Sherrod assists)
·
SEA 79·NY 70
- Q4·58.1
Zia Cooke bad pass (Jaylyn Sherrod steals)
·
SEA 79·NY 68
- Q4·1:14
Dominique Malonga defensive rebound
SEA 79·NY 68
- Q4·1:16
Nyara Sabally misses free throw 2 of 2
SEA 79·NY 68
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:16
Nyara Sabally makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 79·NY 68
- Q4·1:16
Mackenzie Holmes loose ball foul
SEA 79·NY 67
- Q4·1:16
Liberty defensive team rebound
SEA 79·NY 67
- Q4·1:17
Erica Wheeler misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
SEA 79·NY 67
- Q4·1:37
Marquesha Davis makes free throw 1 of 1
SEA 79·NY 67
- Q4·1:37
Mackenzie Holmes shooting foul
SEA 79·NY 66
- Q4·1:37
Marquesha Davis makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Kennedy Burke assists)
·
SEA 79·NY 66
- Q4·1:54
Erica Wheeler out of bounds bad pass turnover
SEA 79·NY 64
- Q4·2:15
Kennedy Burke makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 79·NY 64
- Q4·2:15
Lexie Brown enters the game for Gabby Williams
·
SEA 79·NY 63
- Q4·2:15
Zia Cooke enters the game for Ezi Magbegor
·
SEA 79·NY 63
- Q4·2:15
Mackenzie Holmes enters the game for Skylar Diggins
·
SEA 79·NY 63
- Q4·2:15
Kennedy Burke makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 79·NY 63
- Q4·2:15
Dominique Malonga shooting foul
SEA 79·NY 62
- Q4·2:23
Kennedy Burke defensive rebound
SEA 79·NY 62
- Q4·2:24
Dominique Malonga misses 6-foot jumper
SEA 79·NY 62
- Q4·2:35
Dominique Malonga enters the game for Nneka Ogwumike
·
SEA 79·NY 62
- Q4·2:35
Jaylyn Sherrod enters the game for Breanna Stewart
·
SEA 79·NY 62
- Q4·2:35
Marquesha Davis enters the game for Sabrina Ionescu
·
SEA 79·NY 62
- Q4·2:35
Kennedy Burke enters the game for Leonie Fiebich
·
SEA 79·NY 62
−1pp
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
NY
Home
32-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
24-68
45
FG %
35
5-17
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-24
10-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-16
21
Assists
17
10
Turnovers
15
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort
Breanna StewartNY · FDRB%.24980
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA12.8± 6.6low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
Assists
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA3.7± 2.2low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
Steals
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Breanna StewartNY1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
NY
41.6%
FG%
44.9
▶45.9%
34.1%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.8%
79.5
PPG
86.0
▶88.0
17.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.3