Jul 25, 25sim 96
1176
9(H)89
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+5NY
ATL
8-4
8186
NY
10-1
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ew York Liberty held off Atlanta Dream, 86–81.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Rhyne Howard
G · #10
13.9Game score
13
Pts
7
Reb
9
Ast
NY · top performer
Sabrina Ionescu
G · #20
30.4Game score
34
Pts
7
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at New York Liberty · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL8-4
8186
NY10-1
ATL8-4NY10-1
ATL
8-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | |
| 23 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 36 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 25 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -8 | |
| 39 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | |
| 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| 15 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| Team | 81 | 31 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 12 | ||
| DNP: T. Thierry | ||||||||
NY
10-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 36 | 23 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | |
DRB%.24980 USG%.28360 ORB%.05160 | ||||||||
| 18 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -3 | |
| 25 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 29 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 38 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +11 | |
| 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -11 | |
| 19 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +23 | |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| Team | 86 | 37 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 12 | ||
| DNP: M. Davis | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
44
23
Ast
19
Season series
Series tied 2-2
Jun 17ATL81@NY86today
ATL81@NY86todayJun 29NY81@ATL90
NY81@ATL90Jul 13ATL72@NY79
ATL72@NY79Aug 23NY62@ATL78
NY62@ATL78Headlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ NY
Biggest swing: 30pp · 4th Quarter · 6.1
ATLR. Howard
GGame leader · 39 min
13 PTS · 7 REB · 9 AST
NYS. Ionescu
GGame leader · 38 min30+ point game
34 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
NY beat ATL 86-81. S. Ionescu paced them with 34 PTS, 7 REB, 5 AST. NY outscored the other side 26-13 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
NY vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 22 REB · 20 AST
GS 51
Bench(5)
23 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
GS 16
NYstarters 95% of ptsStarters(5)
82 PTS · 27 REB · 17 AST
GS 72
Bench(5)
4 PTS · 10 REB · 2 AST
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY4th Quarter · 3:56 · 76-75
+19pp→ 59% WP
Te-Hina Paopao · shooting foul
NY4th Quarter · 19.0 · 81-83
+20pp→ 84% WP
Rhyne Howard · misses driving layup
NY4th Quarter · 6.1 · 81-84
+30pp→ 95% WP
Rhyne Howard · misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 20 | 23 | 25 | 13 | 81 |
| NY | 24 | 16 | 20 | 26 | 86 |
Period scoring
ATL won 2 · NY won 2
20
24
Q1
Paopao 7
Ionescu 11
23
16
Q2
Paopao 9
Ionescu 9
25
20
Q3
Canada 7
Ionescu 9
13
26
Q4
Gray 5
Stewart 9
ATL
NY
Shooting comparison
ATL
NY
43%
29-67
FG
44%
31-71
43%
12-28
3PT
32%
7-22
100%
11-11
FT
85%
17-20
Play-by-play · 389 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 81·NY 86
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 81·NY 86
- Q4·0.0
Dream offensive team rebound
ATL 81·NY 86
- Q4·0.0
Rhyne Howard misses 57-foot three point jumper
ATL 81·NY 86
+0.6pp
- Q4·2.0
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 81·NY 86
- Q4·2.0
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 81·NY 85
- Q4·2.0
Brionna Jones personal take foul
·
ATL 81·NY 84
+2pp
- Q4·4.0
Liberty timeout
ATL 81·NY 84
- Q4·4.0
Brittney Griner enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
ATL 81·NY 84
- Q4·4.0
Liberty defensive team rebound
ATL 81·NY 84
+3pp
- Q4·6.1
Rhyne Howard misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
ATL 81·NY 84
+30pp
- Q4·10.1
Natasha Cloud personal foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 81·NY 84
−28pp
- Q4·13.1
Naz Hillmon enters the game for Brittney Griner
·
ATL 81·NY 84
- Q4·13.1
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Jordin Canada
·
ATL 81·NY 84
- Q4·13.1
Dream timeout
ATL 81·NY 84
- Q4·13.1
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 81·NY 84
−1pp
- Q4·13.1
Liberty offensive team rebound
ATL 81·NY 83
−2pp
- Q4·13.1
Sabrina Ionescu misses free throw 1 of 2
ATL 81·NY 83
−1pp
- Q4·13.1
Rhyne Howard personal take foul
ATL 81·NY 83
- Q4·15.1
Brionna Jones enters the game for Naz Hillmon
· ·
ATL 81·NY 83
- Q4·15.1
Naz Hillmon personal foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 81·NY 83
+9pp
- Q4·17.1
Brittney Griner enters the game for Nia Coffey
·
ATL 81·NY 83
- Q4·17.1
Liberty Full timeout
ATL 81·NY 83
- Q4·17.1
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brionna Jones
· ·
ATL 81·NY 83
- Q4·17.1
Naz Hillmon enters the game for Brittney Griner
·
ATL 81·NY 83
- Q4·17.1
Liberty Full timeout
ATL 81·NY 83
- Q4·17.1
Breanna Stewart defensive rebound
ATL 81·NY 83
+4pp
- Q4·19.0
Rhyne Howard misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
ATL 81·NY 83
+21pp
- Q4·30.1
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
ATL 81·NY 83
−16pp
- Q4·30.1
Liberty offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
ATL 81·NY 83
+12pp
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
NY
Home
29-67
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-71
43
FG %
44
12-28
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-22
11-11
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-20
23
Assists
19
12
Turnovers
12
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort
Breanna StewartNY · FDRB%.24980
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Rhyne HowardATL13.8± 9.6low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
NY
43.5%
FG%
44.9
▶45.9%
31.7%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.8%
83.5
PPG
86.0
▶88.0
19.5
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.3