Jul 24, 25sim 98
2090
11(H)79
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+14NY
IND
12-12
8498
NY
16-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ew York Liberty held off Indiana Fever, 98–84.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Kelsey Mitchell
G · #0
18.9Game score
29
Pts
2
Reb
2
Ast
NY · top performer
Breanna Stewart
F · #30
17.0Game score
17
Pts
4
Reb
6
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at New York Liberty · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND12-12
8498
NY16-6
IND12-12NY16-6
IND
12-12
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | |
| 30 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 5 | +2 | |
| 35 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | |
| 33 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 31 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | |
| 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -17 | |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -19 | |
| 21 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -19 | |
| Team | 84 | 30 | 18 | 13 | 1 | 19 | ||
| DNP: B. Turner, M. Timpson, C. Clark | ||||||||
NY
16-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 36 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +12 | |
DRB%.24980 USG%.28360 ORB%.05160 | ||||||||
| 34 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +10 | |
| 23 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +8 | |
| 26 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +2 | |
| 29 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -1 | |
| 17 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 17 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
| 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +17 | |
| Team | 98 | 34 | 25 | 9 | 5 | 19 | ||
| DNP: N. Sabally, R. Gardner, J. Sherrod | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
52
18
Ast
25
Season series
NY wins series 3-1
May 24NY90@IND88
NY90@IND88Jun 14NY88@IND102
NY88@IND102Jul 16IND77@NY98
IND77@NY98Jul 23IND84@NY98today
IND84@NY98todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ NY
Biggest swing: 11pp · 2nd Quarter · 1:03
INDK. Mitchell
GGame leader · 35 min
29 PTS · 2 REB · 2 AST
NYB. Stewart
FGame leader · 36 min
17 PTS · 4 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
NY beat IND 98-84. B. Stewart led with 17 PTS, 4 REB, 6 AST. NY outscored the other side 29-17 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
NY vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 92% of ptsStarters(5)
77 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST
GS 54
Bench(3)
7 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST
NYstarters 77% of ptsStarters(5)
75 PTS · 26 REB · 23 AST
GS 63
Bench(4)
23 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST
GS 19
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND2nd Quarter · 1:03 · 46-38
+11pp→ 65% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aliyah Boston assists)
IND3rd Quarter · 3:38 · 63-59
+10pp→ 58% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · makes 27-foot three pointer (Aliyah Boston assists)
NY3rd Quarter · 1:42 · 67-65
+10pp→ 45% WP
Leonie Fiebich · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Breanna Stewart assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 22 | 24 | 21 | 17 | 84 |
| NY | 23 | 19 | 27 | 29 | 98 |
Period scoring
IND won 1 · NY won 3
22
23
Q1
Howard 8
Jones 5
24
19
Q2
Mitchell 10
Burke 4
21
27
Q3
Mitchell 7
Fiebich 8
17
29
Q4
Mitchell 8
Ionescu 10
IND
NY
Shooting comparison
IND
NY
42%
31-74
FG
52%
33-64
30%
10-33
3PT
55%
12-22
86%
12-14
FT
95%
20-21
Play-by-play · 398 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 84·NY 98
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 84·NY 98
- Q4·20.1
Breanna Stewart defensive rebound
IND 84·NY 98
- Q4·22.2
Lexie Hull misses two point shot
IND 84·NY 98
- Q4·29.1
Damiris Dantas defensive rebound
IND 84·NY 98
- Q4·31.0
Isabelle Harrison misses driving layup
IND 84·NY 98
- Q4·41.0
Liberty timeout
IND 84·NY 98
- Q4·43.1
Sabrina Ionescu defensive rebound
IND 84·NY 98
- Q4·46.0
Damiris Dantas misses 13-foot two point shot
IND 84·NY 98
- Q4·58.0
Natasha Cloud makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 84·NY 98
- Q4·58.0
Natasha Cloud makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 84·NY 97
- Q4·58.0
Sophie Cunningham personal take foul
IND 84·NY 96
- Q4·58.1
Natasha Cloud defensive rebound
IND 84·NY 96
- Q4·1:01
Damiris Dantas misses 25-foot three point jumper
IND 84·NY 96
- Q4·1:08
Isabelle Harrison makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 84·NY 96
- Q4·1:08
Isabelle Harrison makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 84·NY 95
- Q4·1:08
Damiris Dantas personal foul
IND 84·NY 94
- Q4·1:11
Liberty Full timeout
IND 84·NY 94
- Q4·1:11
Sophie Cunningham makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Lexie Hull assists)
·
IND 84·NY 94
- Q4·1:17
Sabrina Ionescu lost ball turnover (Aari McDonald steals)
·
IND 81·NY 94
- Q4·1:34
Kelsey Mitchell out of bounds bad pass turnover
IND 81·NY 94
- Q4·1:42
Isabelle Harrison makes free throw 1 of 1
IND 81·NY 94
- Q4·1:42
Damiris Dantas enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
IND 81·NY 93
- Q4·1:42
Aliyah Boston shooting foul
IND 81·NY 93
- Q4·1:42
Isabelle Harrison makes driving layup (Sabrina Ionescu assists)
·
IND 81·NY 93
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:53
Aliyah Boston makes 5-foot hook shot
IND 81·NY 91
- Q4·2:01
Fever offensive team rebound
IND 79·NY 91
- Q4·2:01
Sabrina Ionescu blocks Lexie Hull 's 7-foot driving layup
·
IND 79·NY 91
- Q4·2:18
Isabelle Harrison makes 3-foot layup (Sabrina Ionescu assists)
·
IND 79·NY 91
+0.7pp
- Q4·2:29
Kelsey Mitchell makes two point shot
IND 79·NY 89
−0.6pp
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
NY
Home
31-74
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
33-64
42
FG %
52
10-33
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-22
12-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-21
18
Assists
25
19
Turnovers
19
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort- Breanna StewartNY · FDRB%.24980
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Pauline AstierNY3.6± 2.5low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
Steals
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
NY
45.4%
FG%
44.9
45.9%
32.1%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.8%
92.9
PPG
◀
86.0
88.0
22.3
Assists / G
18.0
22.1
14.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.3