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FINAL+21NY
IND

IND

12-11

7798
NY

NY

15-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBAWed, Jul 16FinalSeriesNY wins series 3-1

Recap · WNBA

ew York Liberty held off Indiana Fever, 98–77. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

IND · top performer

IND
Kelsey Mitchell

Kelsey Mitchell

G · #0

10.9Game score

16

Pts

2

Reb

0

Ast

NY · top performer

NY
Breanna Stewart

Breanna Stewart

F · #30

25.9Game score

24

Pts

11

Reb

7

Ast

WNBA · Indiana Fever at New York Liberty · final

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final
77
98
IND12-11NY15-6
IND

IND

12-11

77
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
N. HowardN. Howard★F · #6
16851102-24
A. BostonA. Boston★C · #7
29736110-19
K. MitchellK. Mitchell★G · #0
271620000-22
S. CunninghamS. Cunningham★G · #8
261240103-25
A. McDonaldA. McDonald★G · #2
291015103-14
M. TimpsonM. TimpsonF · #21
11840010+6
D. DantasD. DantasC · #12
2011502000
S. ColsonS. ColsonG · #51
24012002-3
L. HullL. HullG · #10
19572202-4
Team7732168212
DNP: B. Turner, C. Clark
NY

NY

15-6

98
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
B. StewartB. Stewart★F · #30
3024117142+23
N. SaballyN. Sabally★F · #8
21243033+18
L. FiebichL. Fiebich★F · #13
251011001+18
N. CloudN. Cloud★G · #9
261453001+28
S. IonescuS. Ionescu★G · #20
271539011+18
I. HarrisonI. HarrisonF · #21
19921312+3
R. GardnerR. GardnerG · #7
8611201+2
K. BurkeK. BurkeG · #22
20612000+3
M. JohannesM. JohannesG · #23
181213201+3
Team9829308913
DNP: J. Jones

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

37

FG %

58

16

Ast

30

Season series

NY wins series 3-1

May 24NYNY90@INDIND88
Jun 14NYNY88@INDIND102
Jul 16INDIND77@NYNY98today
Jul 23INDIND84@NYNY98

Headlines · top performers

Game flowIND ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 4:58

INDIND
K. Mitchell

K. Mitchell

G

Game leader · 27 min

16 PTS · 2 REB · 0 AST

NYNY
B. Stewart

B. Stewart

F

Game leader · 30 min

24 PTS · 11 REB · 7 AST

How it ended

NY beat IND 98-77. B. Stewart led with 24 PTS, 11 REB, 7 AST. NY outscored the other side 32-24 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs IND

0255075100Q2Q3Q4

Starters vs bench

production by unit
INDINDstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

53 PTS · 15 REB · 12 AST

GS 35

Bench(4)

24 PTS · 17 REB · 4 AST

GS 17

NYNYstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 24 REB · 23 AST

GS 60

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 5 REB · 7 AST

GS 33

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
IND2414192077
NY3221212498

Period scoring

IND won 0 · NY won 4

24
32

Q1

Mitchell 8

Ionescu 10

14
21

Q2

Mitchell 5

Stewart 7

19
21

Q3

McDonald 6

Stewart 9

20
24

Q4

Hull 5

Johannes 6

IND
NY

Shooting comparison

IND
NY

37%

28-76

FG

58%

37-64

25%

8-32

3PT

52%

14-27

87%

13-15

FT

91%

10-11

Play-by-play · 373 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q4·0.0

    End of Game

    IND 77·NY 98

  2. Q4·0.0

    End of the 4th Quarter

    IND 77·NY 98

  3. Q4·22.1

    Makayla Timpson makes tip shot

    IND 77·NY 98

  4. Q4·22.1

    Makayla Timpson offensive rebound

    IND 75·NY 98

  5. Q4·24.0

    Sydney Colson misses 18-foot pullup jump shot

    IND 75·NY 98

  6. Q4·40.0

    Rebekah Gardner traveling

    IND 75·NY 98

  7. Q4·1:01

    Makayla Timpson makes two point shot

    IND 75·NY 98

  8. Q4·1:03

    Makayla Timpson offensive rebound

    IND 73·NY 98

  9. Q4·1:05

    Damiris Dantas misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot

    IND 73·NY 98

  10. Q4·1:15

    Lexie Hull defensive rebound

    IND 73·NY 98

  11. Q4·1:18

    Isabelle Harrison misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot

    IND 73·NY 98

  12. Q4·1:30

    Aari McDonald makes driving layup

    IND 73·NY 98

  13. Q4·1:34

    Lexie Hull offensive rebound

    IND 71·NY 98

  14. Q4·1:37

    Damiris Dantas misses 24-foot three point jumper

    IND 71·NY 98

  15. Q4·1:47

    Fever Full timeout

    IND 71·NY 98

  16. Q4·1:48

    Marine Johannes makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Rebekah Gardner assists)

    ·

    IND 71·NY 98

  17. Q4·1:51

    Aari McDonald bad pass (Rebekah Gardner steals)

    ·

    IND 71·NY 95

  18. Q4·2:00

    Kennedy Burke makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marine Johannes assists)

    ·

    IND 71·NY 95

  19. Q4·2:18

    Lexie Hull makes 12-foot pullup jump shot

    IND 71·NY 92

  20. Q4·2:26

    Lexie Hull defensive rebound

    IND 69·NY 92

  21. Q4·2:28

    Rebekah Gardner misses free throw 2 of 2

    IND 69·NY 92

  22. Q4·2:28

    Jaylyn Sherrod enters the game for Natasha Cloud

    ·

    IND 69·NY 92

  23. Q4·2:28

    Rebekah Gardner makes free throw 1 of 2

    IND 69·NY 92

  24. Q4·2:28

    Sydney Colson shooting foul

    IND 69·NY 91

  25. Q4·2:32

    Sydney Colson bad pass (Isabelle Harrison steals)

    ·

    IND 69·NY 91

  26. Q4·2:55

    Rebekah Gardner makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isabelle Harrison assists)

    ·

    IND 69·NY 91

  27. Q4·3:08

    Lexie Hull loose ball foul

    IND 69·NY 88

  28. Q4·3:08

    Liberty defensive team rebound

    IND 69·NY 88

  29. Q4·3:09

    Damiris Dantas misses 25-foot three point jumper

    IND 69·NY 88

  30. Q4·3:28

    Marine Johannes makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot

    IND 69·NY 88

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

NY

Home

28-76

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-64

37

FG %

58

8-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-27

13-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

10-11

16

Assists

30

12

Turnovers

13

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 13 players in cohort
  • Breanna StewartNY · F
    DRB%.24980

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · IND favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NY win)

    30%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NY win)

    37%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NY win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NY vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

105

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

  • Caitlin ClarkIND
    19.4± 9.7low
  • Kelsey MitchellIND
    19.3± 7.5low
  • Breanna StewartNY
    17.3± 11.0low

Rebounds

  • Breanna StewartNY
    8.2± 2.4low
  • Jonquel JonesNY
    8.0± 3.1low
  • Aliyah BostonIND
    6.6± 6.4low

Assists

  • Caitlin ClarkIND
    7.0± 3.5low
  • Marine JohannesNY
    4.2± 4.0low
  • Pauline AstierNY
    3.6± 2.5low

Blocks

  • Jonquel JonesNY
    1.2± 1.9low
  • Breanna StewartNY
    1.0± 1.7low
  • Caitlin ClarkIND
    0.8± 0.9low

Steals

  • Marine JohannesNY
    1.7± 2.1low
  • Aliyah BostonIND
    1.1± 1.6low
  • Caitlin ClarkIND
    1.1± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

IND

IND

league avg

NY

NY

45.4%

FG%

44.9

45.9%

32.1%

3PT %

33.0

▶

35.8%

92.9

PPG

◀

86.0

88.0

22.3

Assists / G

18.0

22.1

14.4

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

14.3

Data via ESPN · wehoop