Jul 2, 25sim 94
574
8(H)59
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+11MIN
GS
9-8
7182
MIN
16-2
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx held off Golden State Valkyries, 82–71.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Tiffany Hayes
G · #15
20.4Game score
23
Pts
3
Reb
4
Ast
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
18.7Game score
22
Pts
6
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
GS9-8
7182
MIN16-2
GS9-8MIN16-2
GS
9-8
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| 24 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 26 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | |
| 33 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 31 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | |
| 14 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 | |
| 15 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| Team | 71 | 33 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 10 | ||
| DNP: L. Amihere, C. Leite | ||||||||
MIN
16-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 19 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | |
| 35 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +9 | |
| 30 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +7 | |
| 27 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 24 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +11 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 13 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 16 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +11 | |
| Team | 82 | 31 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 9 | ||
| DNP: M. Kliundikova, A. Pili, A. Kosu, K. Samuelson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
45
19
Ast
25
Playoff series
MIN wins series 2-0
Sep 14GS72@MIN101
GS72@MIN101Sep 18MIN75@GS74
MIN75@GS74Headlines · top performers
Game flowGS ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:02
GST. Hayes
GGame leader · 33 min
23 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 35 min
22 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
MIN beat GS 82-71. N. Collier led with 22 PTS, 6 REB, 1 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 26 REB · 17 AST
GS 47
Bench(5)
12 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
MINstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
61 PTS · 18 REB · 16 AST
GS 49
Bench(3)
21 PTS · 13 REB · 9 AST
GS 22
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS3rd Quarter · 8:26 · 42-43
+6pp→ 27% WP
Stephanie Talbot · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Temi Fagbenle assists)
MIN3rd Quarter · 4:02 · 56-59
+7pp→ 74% WP
Courtney Williams · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bridget Carleton assists)
MIN3rd Quarter · 1:44 · 58-64
+7pp→ 86% WP
Kate Martin · misses driving layup
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 18 | 18 | 24 | 11 | 71 |
| MIN | 25 | 16 | 28 | 13 | 82 |
Period scoring
GS won 1 · MIN won 3
18
25
Q1
Thornton 11
McBride 5
18
16
Q2
Martin 5
Collier 9
24
28
Q3
Hayes 8
Williams 8
11
13
Q4
Hayes 5
McBride 5
GS
MIN
Shooting comparison
GS
MIN
42%
27-65
FG
45%
29-64
34%
11-32
3PT
37%
11-30
75%
6-8
FT
87%
13-15
Play-by-play · 346 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 71·MIN 82
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 71·MIN 82
- Q4·6.0
shot clock turnover
GS 71·MIN 82
- Q4·30.0
Lynx defensive team rebound
GS 71·MIN 82
- Q4·31.1
Veronica Burton misses driving layup
GS 71·MIN 82
- Q4·38.1
Kayla McBride makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 71·MIN 82
- Q4·38.1
Kayla McBride makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 71·MIN 81
- Q4·38.1
Stephanie Talbot personal foul
GS 71·MIN 80
- Q4·40.0
Temi Fagbenle personal foul
GS 71·MIN 80
- Q4·46.2
Lynx timeout
GS 71·MIN 80
- Q4·46.2
Temi Fagbenle makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 71·MIN 80
- Q4·46.2
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
GS 70·MIN 80
- Q4·46.2
Temi Fagbenle misses free throw 1 of 2
GS 70·MIN 80
+0.6pp
- Q4·46.2
Jessica Shepard shooting foul
GS 70·MIN 80
−0.9pp
- Q4·1:05
Napheesa Collier out of bounds bad pass turnover
GS 70·MIN 80
- Q4·1:21
Temi Fagbenle makes 1-foot layup (Tiffany Hayes assists)
·
GS 70·MIN 80
- Q4·1:34
Kayla Thornton defensive rebound
GS 68·MIN 80
- Q4·1:37
Jessica Shepard misses 14-foot jumper
GS 68·MIN 80
- Q4·2:04
Stephanie Talbot makes 22-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)
·
GS 68·MIN 80
- Q4·2:19
Napheesa Collier makes 8-foot two point shot (Courtney Williams assists)
·
GS 65·MIN 80
- Q4·2:39
Bridget Carleton defensive rebound
GS 65·MIN 78
- Q4·2:43
Temi Fagbenle misses 22-foot three point jumper
GS 65·MIN 78
- Q4·2:59
Kayla Thornton defensive rebound
GS 65·MIN 78
- Q4·3:03
Courtney Williams misses 23-foot three point jumper
GS 65·MIN 78
- Q4·3:20
Tiffany Hayes makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot
GS 65·MIN 78
- Q4·3:30
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
GS 63·MIN 78
- Q4·3:30
Veronica Burton misses driving layup
GS 63·MIN 78
- Q4·3:30
(03:30) [Lynx] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Lynx] retain their timeout
GS 63·MIN 78
- Q4·3:30
Lynx Full timeout
GS 63·MIN 78
- Q4·3:34
Stephanie Talbot defensive rebound
GS 63·MIN 78
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
27-65
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-64
42
FG %
45
11-32
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-30
6-8
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-15
19
Assists
25
10
Turnovers
9
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 15 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
Rebounds
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
MIN
41.3%
FG%
44.9
▶51.7%
36.1%
3PT %
◀
33.0
35.3%
86.4
PPG
86.0
▶89.7
19.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.3
10.1
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.4