Jul 23, 25sim 98
584
9(H)98
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+11ATL
ATL
14-10
9079
PHX
15-8
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream went into Phoenix Mercury and beat them, 90–79.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Allisha Gray
G · #15
24.5Game score
28
Pts
7
Reb
6
Ast
PHX · top performer
DeWanna Bonner
F · #14
13.9Game score
18
Pts
2
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL14-10
9079
PHX15-8
ATL14-10PHX15-8
ATL
14-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +21 | |
| 26 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4 | |
| 37 | 28 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +10 | |
| 36 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +10 | |
| 21 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +9 | |
| 26 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 22 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | |
| Team | 90 | 36 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 8 | ||
| DNP: T. Thierry, R. Howard | ||||||||
PHX
15-8
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -12 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 18 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -16 | |
| 21 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -10 | |
| 28 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -11 | |
| 22 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -13 | |
| 25 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +5 | |
| 19 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +9 | |
| 8 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 12 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 79 | 32 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 8 | ||
| DNP: K. Williams, M. Akoa Makani | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
50
FG %
39
25
Ast
18
Season series
ATL wins series 3-0
Jul 24ATL90@PHX79today
ATL90@PHX79todayAug 1PHX72@ATL95
PHX72@ATL95Aug 10ATL74@PHX66
ATL74@PHX66Headlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 12pp · 1st Quarter · 1:53
ATLA. Gray
GGame leader · 37 min
28 PTS · 7 REB · 6 AST
PHXD. Bonner
FGame leader · 25 min
18 PTS · 2 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
ATL beat PHX 90-79. A. Gray paced them with 28 PTS, 7 REB, 6 AST. ATL outscored the other side 26-17 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 30 REB · 21 AST
GS 62
Bench(4)
20 PTS · 6 REB · 4 AST
GS 17
PHXstarters 56% of ptsStarters(5)
44 PTS · 16 REB · 14 AST
GS 24
Bench(5)
35 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST
GS 33
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX2nd Quarter · 1:42 · 36-29
+9pp→ 28% WP
DeWanna Bonner · makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL2nd Quarter · 1:25 · 39-30
+11pp→ 80% WP
Allisha Gray · makes 1-foot layup (Brionna Jones assists)
ATL1st Quarter · 1:53 · 23-12
+12pp→ 81% WP
Allisha Gray · misses 3-foot jumper
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 26 | 13 | 26 | 25 | 90 |
| PHX | 17 | 17 | 22 | 23 | 79 |
Period scoring
ATL won 3 · PHX won 1
26
17
Q1
Gray 8
Sabally 5
13
17
Q2
Walker-Kimbrough 6
Mack 6
26
22
Q3
Griner 6
Westbeld 23
25
23
Q4
Gray 9
Bonner 8
ATL
PHX
Shooting comparison
ATL
PHX
50%
34-68
FG
39%
26-67
42%
10-24
3PT
37%
11-30
80%
12-15
FT
76%
16-21
Play-by-play · 388 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 90·PHX 79
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 90·PHX 79
- Q4·20.0
Nia Coffey defensive rebound
ATL 90·PHX 79
- Q4·23.0
Sami Whitcomb misses 25-foot three point jumper
ATL 90·PHX 79
- Q4·27.2
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
ATL 90·PHX 79
- Q4·29.1
Jordin Canada misses driving layup
ATL 90·PHX 79
- Q4·50.1
Maya Caldwell defensive rebound
ATL 90·PHX 79
- Q4·56.1
DeWanna Bonner misses 23-foot three point jumper
ATL 90·PHX 79
- Q4·1:00
Mercury Full timeout
ATL 90·PHX 79
- Q4·1:00
Allisha Gray makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 90·PHX 79
- Q4·1:00
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brittney Griner
·
ATL 89·PHX 79
- Q4·1:00
Allisha Gray makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 89·PHX 79
- Q4·1:00
Kathryn Westbeld personal foul
ATL 88·PHX 79
- Q4·1:00
Maya Caldwell defensive rebound
ATL 88·PHX 79
- Q4·1:03
Sami Whitcomb misses 21-foot jumper
ATL 88·PHX 79
−0.7pp
- Q4·1:10
Jordin Canada makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 88·PHX 79
+0.6pp
- Q4·1:10
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Shatori Walker-Kimbrough
·
ATL 87·PHX 79
- Q4·1:10
Jordin Canada makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 87·PHX 79
- Q4·1:10
DeWanna Bonner shooting foul
ATL 86·PHX 79
−2pp
- Q4·1:26
Kathryn Westbeld enters the game for Natasha Mack
·
ATL 86·PHX 79
- Q4·1:26
Dream Full timeout
ATL 86·PHX 79
- Q4·1:29
DeWanna Bonner makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 86·PHX 79
−2pp
- Q4·1:29
DeWanna Bonner makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 86·PHX 78
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:29
Naz Hillmon shooting foul
ATL 86·PHX 77
+3pp
- Q4·1:40
Brittney Griner makes 7-foot layup (Allisha Gray assists)
·
ATL 86·PHX 77
- Q4·1:49
Natasha Mack personal foul
ATL 84·PHX 77
−1pp
- Q4·2:04
Satou Sabally personal foul
ATL 84·PHX 77
−1pp
- Q4·2:13
Sami Whitcomb makes 24-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)
·
ATL 84·PHX 77
+2pp
- Q4·2:32
Natasha Mack defensive rebound
ATL 84·PHX 74
- Q4·2:35
Allisha Gray misses 22-foot three point jumper
ATL 84·PHX 74
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
34-68
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
26-67
50
FG %
39
10-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-30
12-15
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-21
25
Assists
18
8
Turnovers
8
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 12 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
PHX
43.5%
FG%
44.9
43.4%
31.7%
3PT %
33.0
▶32.3%
83.5
PPG
86.0
▶85.6
19.5
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.1
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9