Jul 23, 25sim 95
584
9(H)98
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+23MIN
PHX
5-3
6588
MIN
8-0
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx held off Phoenix Mercury, 88–65. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Lexi Held
G · #1
14.1Game score
16
Pts
1
Reb
3
Ast
MIN · top performer
Alanna Smith
F · #8
16.2Game score
13
Pts
3
Reb
6
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX5-3
6588
MIN8-0
PHX5-3MIN8-0
PHX
5-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -11 | |
| 22 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | |
| 23 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -11 | |
| 25 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 20 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -13 | |
| 18 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -12 | |
| 29 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -17 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -22 | |
| 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| Team | 65 | 24 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 10 | ||
| DNP: A. Thomas, N. Mack, K. Copper | ||||||||
MIN
8-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +12 | |
| 25 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +31 | |
| 31 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +24 | |
| 25 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +16 | |
| 22 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +19 | |
| 16 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 15 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
| 24 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +14 | |
| Team | 88 | 37 | 29 | 6 | 4 | 23 | ||
| DNP: M. Badiane | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
38
FG %
59
13
Ast
29
Playoff series
PHX wins series 3-1
Sep 21PHX69@MIN82
PHX69@MIN82Sep 23PHX89@MIN83
PHX89@MIN83Sep 27MIN76@PHX84
MIN76@PHX84Sep 29MIN81@PHX86
MIN81@PHX86Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 8pp · 1st Quarter · 32.1
PHXL. Held
GGame leader · 29 min
16 PTS · 1 REB · 3 AST
MINA. Smith
FGame leader · 25 min
13 PTS · 3 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
MIN beat PHX 88-65. A. Smith led with 13 PTS, 3 REB, 6 AST. MIN outscored the other side 25-12 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 60% of ptsStarters(5)
39 PTS · 16 REB · 5 AST
GS 21
Bench(5)
26 PTS · 8 REB · 8 AST
GS 22
MINstarters 60% of ptsStarters(5)
53 PTS · 25 REB · 26 AST
GS 51
Bench(6)
35 PTS · 12 REB · 3 AST
GS 23
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMIN1st Quarter · 32.1 · 23-17
+8pp→ 55% WP
Karlie Samuelson · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Alanna Smith assists)
MIN2nd Quarter · 7:34 · 23-26
+6pp→ 79% WP
Karlie Samuelson · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Natisha Hiedeman assists)
MIN3rd Quarter · 5:40 · 37-51
+6pp→ 96% WP
Lexi Held · misses driving floating jump shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 23 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 65 |
| MIN | 19 | 25 | 23 | 21 | 88 |
Period scoring
PHX won 1 · MIN won 3
23
19
Q1
Sabally 8
Smith 6
12
25
Q2
Sabally 5
Hiedeman 9
14
23
Q3
Held 5
McBride 5
16
21
Q4
Held 7
McBride 6
PHX
MIN
Shooting comparison
PHX
MIN
38%
28-73
FG
59%
34-58
17%
5-30
3PT
48%
12-25
80%
4-5
FT
89%
8-9
Play-by-play · 357 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 65·MIN 88
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 65·MIN 88
- Q4·12.0
Murjanatu Musa out of bounds bad pass turnover
PHX 65·MIN 88
- Q4·21.1
Natisha Hiedeman makes 24-foot three point shot (Jessica Shepard assists)
·
PHX 65·MIN 88
- Q4·27.0
Jessica Shepard defensive rebound
PHX 65·MIN 85
- Q4·30.0
Kathryn Westbeld misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 65·MIN 85
- Q4·38.2
Haley Jones vs. Jessica Shepard (Murjanatu Musa gains possession)
· ·
PHX 65·MIN 85
- Q4·38.2
Mercury defensive team rebound
PHX 65·MIN 85
- Q4·40.2
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu misses driving floating jump shot
PHX 65·MIN 85
- Q4·54.2
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu offensive rebound
PHX 65·MIN 85
- Q4·56.2
Jessica Shepard misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
PHX 65·MIN 85
- Q4·1:09
Lynx defensive team rebound
PHX 65·MIN 85
- Q4·1:11
Kathryn Westbeld misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 65·MIN 85
- Q4·1:18
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu lost ball turnover (Murjanatu Musa steals)
·
PHX 65·MIN 85
- Q4·1:37
Lexi Held makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot
PHX 65·MIN 85
- Q4·1:43
Kathryn Westbeld enters the game for Megan McConnell
·
PHX 63·MIN 85
- Q4·1:43
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 63·MIN 85
- Q4·1:43
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 63·MIN 85
- Q4·1:43
Alissa Pili loose ball foul
PHX 63·MIN 85
- Q4·1:46
Natisha Hiedeman bad pass (Megan McConnell steals)
·
PHX 63·MIN 85
- Q4·1:58
Kalani Brown makes 3-foot layup (Megan McConnell assists)
·
PHX 63·MIN 85
- Q4·2:05
Diamond Miller personal foul
PHX 61·MIN 85
- Q4·2:17
Diamond Miller makes two point shot (Jessica Shepard assists)
·
PHX 61·MIN 85
- Q4·2:38
Lexi Held makes 25-foot three point jumper (Megan McConnell assists)
·
PHX 61·MIN 83
- Q4·2:50
shot clock turnover
PHX 58·MIN 83
- Q4·2:50
Lynx offensive team rebound
PHX 58·MIN 83
- Q4·2:51
Lexi Held blocks Natisha Hiedeman 's 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
·
PHX 58·MIN 83
- Q4·3:10
Alissa Pili enters the game for Napheesa Collier
·
PHX 58·MIN 83
- Q4·3:10
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu enters the game for Kayla McBride
·
PHX 58·MIN 83
- Q4·3:10
Diamond Miller enters the game for Bridget Carleton
·
PHX 58·MIN 83
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
28-73
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-58
38
FG %
59
5-30
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-25
4-5
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
8-9
13
Assists
29
10
Turnovers
23
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 9 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
MIN
43.4%
FG%
44.9
▶51.7%
32.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.3%
85.6
PPG
86.0
▶89.7
18.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.3
12.9
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.4