Jul 16, 25sim 97
577
9(H)98
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+7NY
ATL
12-9
7279
NY
14-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ew York Liberty held off Atlanta Dream, 79–72.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Maya Caldwell
G · #33
11.3Game score
12
Pts
5
Reb
3
Ast
NY · top performer
Leonie Fiebich
F · #13
22.1Game score
21
Pts
4
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at New York Liberty · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL12-9
7279
NY14-6
ATL12-9NY14-6
ATL
12-9
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | |
| 27 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | |
| 38 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 35 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +10 | |
| 35 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -11 | |
| 19 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | |
| Team | 72 | 47 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 15 | ||
| DNP: T. Thierry, R. Howard | ||||||||
NY
14-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 37 | 18 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +9 | |
DRB%.24980 USG%.28360 ORB%.05160 | ||||||||
| 24 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 33 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 27 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 28 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +4 | |
| 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 18 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +9 | |
| 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| Team | 79 | 36 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 6 | ||
| DNP: J. Jones, J. Sherrod | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
38
FG %
38
18
Ast
24
Season series
Series tied 2-2
Jun 17ATL81@NY86
ATL81@NY86Jun 29NY81@ATL90
NY81@ATL90Jul 13ATL72@NY79today
ATL72@NY79todayAug 23NY62@ATL78
NY62@ATL78Headlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ NY
Biggest swing: 77pp · 2nd Quarter · 1:07
ATLM. Caldwell
GGame leader · 35 min
12 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
NYL. Fiebich
FGame leader · 33 min
21 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
NY beat ATL 79-72. L. Fiebich led with 21 PTS, 4 REB, 4 AST. ATL outscored the other side 26-13 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
NY vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 38 REB · 17 AST
GS 40
Bench(4)
14 PTS · 9 REB · 1 AST
GS 12
NYstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 26 REB · 19 AST
GS 46
Bench(4)
22 PTS · 10 REB · 5 AST
GS 20
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY3rd Quarter · 2:42 · 49-49
+10pp→ 55% WP
Marine Johannes · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isabelle Harrison assists)
NY4th Quarter · 7:01 · 58-63
+10pp→ 79% WP
Kennedy Burke · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Sabrina Ionescu assists)
NY4th Quarter · 3:39 · 64-70
+74pp→ 88% WP
Natasha Cloud · bad pass (Maya Caldwell steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 26 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 72 |
| NY | 13 | 18 | 24 | 24 | 79 |
Period scoring
ATL won 1 · NY won 3
26
13
Q1
Gray 9
Fiebich 5
16
18
Q2
Griner 8
Harrison 5
11
24
Q3
Gray 3
Fiebich 8
19
24
Q4
Canada 6
Cloud 45
ATL
NY
Shooting comparison
ATL
NY
38%
24-64
FG
38%
30-78
28%
7-25
3PT
32%
9-28
61%
17-28
FT
91%
10-11
Play-by-play · 414 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 72·NY 79
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 72·NY 79
+1pp
- Q4·18.1
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
ATL 72·NY 79
- Q4·18.1
Leonie Fiebich makes free throw 1 of 1
ATL 72·NY 79
−0.8pp
- Q4·18.1
Allisha Gray away from play foul
ATL 72·NY 78
- Q4·18.1
Maya Caldwell personal take foul
ATL 72·NY 78
+1pp
- Q4·22.2
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brittney Griner
·
ATL 72·NY 78
- Q4·22.2
Liberty timeout
ATL 72·NY 78
- Q4·22.2
Maya Caldwell makes two point shot
ATL 72·NY 78
−0.9pp
- Q4·22.2
Maya Caldwell offensive rebound
ATL 70·NY 78
- Q4·23.2
Jordin Canada misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
ATL 70·NY 78
+0.5pp
- Q4·29.0
Naz Hillmon offensive rebound
ATL 70·NY 78
- Q4·31.1
Naz Hillmon misses free throw 1 of 1
ATL 70·NY 78
+2pp
- Q4·31.1
Nyara Sabally shooting foul
ATL 70·NY 78
−2pp
- Q4·31.1
Naz Hillmon makes driving layup (Jordin Canada assists)
·
ATL 70·NY 78
- Q4·34.2
Dream Full timeout
ATL 68·NY 78
- Q4·34.2
Breanna Stewart makes two point shot (Leonie Fiebich assists)
·
ATL 68·NY 78
- Q4·38.1
Maya Caldwell bad pass (Breanna Stewart steals)
·
ATL 68·NY 76
+0.9pp
- Q4·45.0
Naz Hillmon enters the game for Brionna Jones
· ·
ATL 68·NY 76
- Q4·45.0
Dream offensive team rebound
ATL 68·NY 76
−0.5pp
- Q4·45.0
Breanna Stewart blocks Jordin Canada 's 3-foot driving layup
·
ATL 68·NY 76
+0.7pp
- Q4·50.1
Breanna Stewart makes 6-foot two point shot
ATL 68·NY 76
+3pp
- Q4·1:02
Nyara Sabally offensive rebound
ATL 68·NY 74
+3pp
- Q4·1:05
Sabrina Ionescu misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 68·NY 74
−2pp
- Q4·1:24
Leonie Fiebich defensive rebound
ATL 68·NY 74
+1pp
- Q4·1:28
Maya Caldwell misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 68·NY 74
+3pp
- Q4·1:35
Allisha Gray defensive rebound
ATL 68·NY 74
−0.7pp
- Q4·1:38
Sabrina Ionescu misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
ATL 68·NY 74
−2pp
- Q4·2:01
Brittney Griner bad pass (Natasha Cloud steals)
·
ATL 68·NY 74
+4pp
- Q4·2:16
Nyara Sabally makes 3-foot layup (Breanna Stewart assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 68·NY 74
+6pp
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
NY
Home
24-64
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-78
38
FG %
38
7-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-28
17-28
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-11
18
Assists
24
15
Turnovers
6
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort
Breanna StewartNY · FDRB%.24980
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Rhyne HowardATL13.8± 9.6low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
NY
43.5%
FG%
44.9
▶45.9%
31.7%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.8%
83.5
PPG
86.0
▶88.0
19.5
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.3