Jul 13, 25sim 97
2072
9(H)79
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1SEA
SEA
11-7
8079
ATL
11-7
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
eattle Storm went into Atlanta Dream and beat them, 80–79. It came down to the final possession.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer
Nneka Ogwumike
F · #3
20.2Game score
24
Pts
7
Reb
2
Ast
ATL · top performer
Jordin Canada
G · #3
20.1Game score
25
Pts
5
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Seattle Storm at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SEA11-7
8079
ATL11-7
SEA11-7ATL11-7
SEA
11-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +6 | |
| 35 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 31 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 31 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 36 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |
| 18 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| Team | 80 | 24 | 17 | 12 | 6 | 11 | ||
| DNP: M. Holmes | ||||||||
ATL
11-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 18 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +9 | |
| 19 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -11 | |
| 17 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 40 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | |
| 39 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 5 | +2 | |
| 24 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | |
| 19 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | |
| Team | 79 | 46 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 16 | ||
| DNP: T. Thierry | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
44
17
Ast
20
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 31ATL94@SEA87
ATL94@SEA87Jul 3SEA80@ATL79today
SEA80@ATL79todayAug 14ATL85@SEA75
ATL85@SEA75Aug 16SEA80@ATL78
SEA80@ATL78Headlines · top performers
Game flowSEA ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 74pp · 4th Quarter · 3.1
SEAN. Ogwumike
FGame leader · 32 min
24 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
ATLJ. Canada
GGame leader · 39 min
25 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
SEA beat ATL 80-79. N. Ogwumike led with 24 PTS, 7 REB, 2 AST. Skylar Diggins's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (74pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs SEA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSEAstarters 90% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 21 REB · 15 AST
GS 59
Bench(4)
8 PTS · 3 REB · 2 AST
GS 4
ATLstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
63 PTS · 31 REB · 17 AST
GS 52
Bench(4)
16 PTS · 15 REB · 3 AST
GS 11
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactATL3rd Quarter · 1:51 · 53-53
+27pp→ 59% WP
Allisha Gray · makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA4th Quarter · 2:15 · 72-75
+22pp→ 39% WP
Brionna Jones · shooting foul
SEA4th Quarter · 3.1 · 80-79
+74pp→ 82% WP
Skylar Diggins · makes driving layup
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 15 | 24 | 20 | 21 | 80 |
| ATL | 13 | 24 | 19 | 23 | 79 |
Period scoring
SEA won 2 · ATL won 1
15
13
Q1
Williams 6
Jones 6
24
24
Q2
Ogwumike 7
Canada 9
20
19
Q3
Ogwumike 8
Griner 13
21
23
Q4
Wheeler 10
Jones 8
SEA
ATL
Shooting comparison
SEA
ATL
46%
32-69
FG
44%
29-66
43%
10-23
3PT
19%
4-21
75%
6-8
FT
81%
17-21
Play-by-play · 366 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 80·ATL 79
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 80·ATL 79
−0.5pp
- Q4·0.0
Dream offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
SEA 80·ATL 79
−6pp
- Q4·1.2
Jordin Canada misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SEA 80·ATL 79
−12pp
- Q4·3.1
Dream Full timeout
SEA 80·ATL 79
- Q4·3.1
Skylar Diggins makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
SEA 80·ATL 79
−74pp
- Q4·11.1
Nia Coffey enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
SEA 78·ATL 79
- Q4·11.1
Storm Full timeout
SEA 78·ATL 79
+1pp
- Q4·12.1
Nneka Ogwumike defensive rebound
SEA 78·ATL 79
+2pp
- Q4·16.0
Maya Caldwell misses 23-foot three point jumper
SEA 78·ATL 79
+4pp
- Q4·32.1
Erica Wheeler makes 27-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
SEA 78·ATL 79
−6pp
- Q4·42.1
Skylar Diggins offensive rebound
SEA 75·ATL 79
−3pp
- Q4·44.1
Nneka Ogwumike misses 25-foot three point jumper
SEA 75·ATL 79
+4pp
- Q4·51.0
Jordin Canada makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 75·ATL 79
−4pp
- Q4·51.0
Jordin Canada makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 75·ATL 78
+0.8pp
- Q4·51.0
Skylar Diggins shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 75·ATL 77
+17pp
- Q4·1:06
Nneka Ogwumike makes 13-foot two point shot (Gabby Williams assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 75·ATL 77
−10pp
- Q4·1:12
Storm Full timeout
SEA 73·ATL 77
- Q4·1:12
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
SEA 73·ATL 77
−6pp
- Q4·1:12
Dream offensive team rebound
SEA 73·ATL 77
+5pp
- Q4·1:16
Jordin Canada misses driving layup
SEA 73·ATL 77
−3pp
- Q4·1:38
Maya Caldwell defensive rebound
SEA 73·ATL 77
+2pp
- Q4·1:40
Gabby Williams misses 22-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·ATL 77
+5pp
- Q4·1:52
Naz Hillmon makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·ATL 77
+8pp
- Q4·1:54
Naz Hillmon offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·ATL 75
+7pp
- Q4·1:55
Jordin Canada misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·ATL 75
−7pp
- Q4·1:59
Naz Hillmon offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·ATL 75
+7pp
- Q4·2:01
Ezi Magbegor blocks Allisha Gray 's 9-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
SEA 73·ATL 75
−6pp
- Q4·2:15
Nneka Ogwumike makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
SEA 73·ATL 75
+13pp
- Q4·2:15
Brionna Jones shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 72·ATL 75
−22pp
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
32-69
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-66
46
FG %
44
10-23
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-21
6-8
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-21
17
Assists
20
11
Turnovers
16
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Rhyne HowardATL13.8± 9.6low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Madina OkotATL5.0± 5.3low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
- Stefanie DolsonSEA0.9± 1.3low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Angel ReeseATL1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
ATL
41.6%
FG%
44.9
▶43.5%
34.1%
3PT %
◀
33.0
31.7%
79.5
PPG
86.0
▶83.5
17.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.5
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.8