Jul 13, 25sim 98
1674
14(H)69
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+9NY
LV
9-10
7887
NY
13-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ew York Liberty held off Las Vegas Aces, 87–78.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
Dana Evans
G · #11
11.6Game score
16
Pts
2
Reb
1
Ast
NY · top performer
Sabrina Ionescu
G · #20
23.6Game score
28
Pts
8
Reb
8
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at New York Liberty · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV9-10
7887
NY13-6
LV9-10NY13-6
LV
9-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -6 | |
| 14 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 34 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -2 | |
| 32 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 33 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -5 | |
| 17 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -7 | |
| 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | |
| 14 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -7 | |
| 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| Team | 78 | 32 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 16 | ||
| DNP: M. Gustafson | ||||||||
NY
13-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 37 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +7 | |
DRB%.24980 USG%.28360 ORB%.05160 | ||||||||
| 18 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| 33 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +5 | |
| 32 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +12 | |
| 36 | 28 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +13 | |
| 17 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +9 | |
| 24 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | |
| Team | 87 | 34 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 9 | ||
| DNP: I. Harrison, J. Jones, N. Cloud, M. Davis | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
43
13
Ast
21
Season series
NY wins series 2-1
May 17LV78@NY92
LV78@NY92Jul 9LV78@NY87today
LV78@NY87todayAug 14NY77@LV83
NY77@LV83Headlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ NY
Biggest swing: 21pp · 4th Quarter · 4:59
LVD. Evans
GGame leader · 14 min
16 PTS · 2 REB · 1 AST
NYS. Ionescu
GGame leader · 36 min
28 PTS · 8 REB · 8 AST
How it ended
NY beat LV 87-78. S. Ionescu paced them with 28 PTS, 8 REB, 8 AST. Sabrina Ionescu's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
NY vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
53 PTS · 25 REB · 11 AST
GS 32
Bench(6)
25 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
GS 15
NYstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 26 REB · 16 AST
GS 62
Bench(4)
15 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST
GS 11
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV4th Quarter · 8:00 · 65-64
+12pp→ 49% WP
Dana Evans · makes 24-foot three pointer
NY4th Quarter · 4:59 · 71-70
+15pp→ 64% WP
Chelsea Gray · shooting foul
NY4th Quarter · 4:59 · 72-71
+21pp→ 57% WP
Sabrina Ionescu · makes free throw 1 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 16 | 26 | 18 | 18 | 78 |
| NY | 19 | 21 | 22 | 25 | 87 |
Period scoring
LV won 1 · NY won 3
16
19
Q1
Smith 6
Fiebich 5
26
21
Q2
Loyd 6
Ionescu 6
18
22
Q3
Young 7
Ionescu 7
18
25
Q4
Evans 5
Ionescu 11
LV
NY
Shooting comparison
LV
NY
41%
25-61
FG
43%
30-70
27%
7-26
3PT
26%
7-27
88%
21-24
FT
77%
20-26
Play-by-play · 396 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 78·NY 87
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 78·NY 87
- Q4·13.0
Chelsea Gray bad pass (Sabrina Ionescu steals)
·
LV 78·NY 87
- Q4·22.1
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 78·NY 87
- Q4·22.1
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 78·NY 86
- Q4·22.1
Jackie Young personal take foul
LV 78·NY 85
- Q4·23.0
Liberty timeout
LV 78·NY 85
- Q4·23.0
Kierstan Bell makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 78·NY 85
+0.8pp
- Q4·23.0
Kierstan Bell makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 77·NY 85
- Q4·23.0
Sabrina Ionescu loose ball foul
LV 76·NY 85
−0.7pp
- Q4·23.0
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 76·NY 85
- Q4·25.0
Jewell Loyd misses 31-foot three point jumper
LV 76·NY 85
- Q4·26.2
Aces Full timeout
LV 76·NY 85
- Q4·26.2
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 76·NY 85
- Q4·26.2
Liberty offensive team rebound
LV 76·NY 84
- Q4·26.2
Breanna Stewart misses free throw 1 of 2
LV 76·NY 84
- Q4·26.2
Jackie Young personal take foul
LV 76·NY 84
- Q4·26.2
Jackie Young lost ball turnover (Breanna Stewart steals)
·
LV 76·NY 84
+0.8pp
- Q4·30.1
NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound
LV 76·NY 84
- Q4·33.1
Breanna Stewart misses free throw 2 of 2
LV 76·NY 84
−1pp
- Q4·33.1
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 76·NY 84
- Q4·33.1
Chelsea Gray personal take foul
LV 76·NY 83
+0.8pp
- Q4·42.1
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 76·NY 83
- Q4·42.1
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 75·NY 83
+0.8pp
- Q4·42.1
Jackie Young misses free throw 1 of 2
LV 75·NY 83
+2pp
- Q4·42.1
Kennedy Burke shooting foul
LV 75·NY 83
−2pp
- Q4·45.0
Aces timeout
LV 75·NY 83
- Q4·46.1
Aces defensive team rebound
LV 75·NY 83
- Q4·46.1
Sabrina Ionescu misses 28-foot three point jumper
LV 75·NY 83
−0.6pp
- Q4·50.1
Leonie Fiebich offensive rebound
LV 75·NY 83
+0.8pp
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
NY
Home
25-61
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-70
41
FG %
43
7-26
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-27
21-24
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-26
13
Assists
21
16
Turnovers
9
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 15 players in cohort
Breanna StewartNY · FDRB%.24980
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
- Breanna StewartNY1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
NY
49.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
45.9%
34.9%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.8%
91.0
PPG
◀
86.0
88.0
22.1
Assists / G
18.0
22.1
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.3