Jul 13, 25sim 97
1674
14(H)69
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8IND
IND
7-7
9486
SEA
9-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever went into Seattle Storm and beat them, 94–86.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Aliyah Boston
C · #7
29.5Game score
31
Pts
8
Reb
3
Ast
SEA · top performer
Skylar Diggins
G · #4
18.9Game score
22
Pts
2
Reb
6
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Seattle Storm · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND7-7
9486
SEA9-6
IND7-7SEA9-6
IND
7-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 13 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 33 | 31 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 34 | 26 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +10 | |
| 31 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +12 | |
| 31 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 8 | +1 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 20 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4 | |
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +3 | |
| 18 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
| Team | 94 | 38 | 18 | 10 | 1 | 15 | ||
| DNP: D. Bonner, M. Timpson | ||||||||
SEA
9-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +4 | |
| 32 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | |
| 35 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -3 | |
| 34 | 22 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 31 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | |
| 18 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -15 | |
| 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| Team | 86 | 21 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 17 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, L. Brown | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
51
FG %
47
18
Ast
17
Season series
IND wins series 3-0
Jun 25IND94@SEA86today
IND94@SEA86todayAug 3IND78@SEA74
IND78@SEA74Aug 26SEA75@IND95
SEA75@IND95Headlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ SEA
Biggest swing: 13pp · 1st Quarter · 33.1
INDA. Boston
CGame leader · 33 min30+ point game
31 PTS · 8 REB · 3 AST
SEAS. Diggins
GGame leader · 34 min
22 PTS · 2 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
IND beat SEA 94-86. A. Boston paced them with 31 PTS, 8 REB, 3 AST. IND outscored the other side 30-19 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SEA vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 87% of ptsStarters(5)
82 PTS · 30 REB · 16 AST
GS 69
Bench(4)
12 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST
GS 6
SEAstarters 91% of ptsStarters(5)
78 PTS · 17 REB · 15 AST
GS 58
Bench(3)
8 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST
GS 3
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND1st Quarter · 33.1 · 24-24
+13pp→ 41% WP
Erica Wheeler · offensive foul
IND2nd Quarter · 58.1 · 45-39
+8pp→ 63% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND3rd Quarter · 5:22 · 61-53
+8pp→ 76% WP
Lexie Hull · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kelsey Mitchell assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 27 | 18 | 30 | 19 | 94 |
| SEA | 24 | 15 | 19 | 28 | 86 |
Period scoring
IND won 3 · SEA won 1
27
24
Q1
Boston 8
Ogwumike 6
18
15
Q2
Mitchell 8
Ogwumike 4
30
19
Q3
Hull 10
Diggins 9
19
28
Q4
Boston 9
Wheeler 14
IND
SEA
Shooting comparison
IND
SEA
51%
36-71
FG
47%
29-62
33%
8-24
3PT
29%
8-28
88%
14-16
FT
80%
20-25
Play-by-play · 410 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 94·SEA 86
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 94·SEA 86
- Q4·7.1
Fever defensive team rebound
IND 94·SEA 86
- Q4·9.0
Skylar Diggins misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
IND 94·SEA 86
- Q4·12.0
Brianna Turner enters the game for Caitlin Clark
· ·
IND 94·SEA 86
- Q4·12.0
Sydney Colson enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
IND 94·SEA 86
- Q4·12.0
Caitlin Clark traveling
·
IND 94·SEA 86
- Q4·16.0
Caitlin Clark enters the game for Brianna Turner
· ·
IND 94·SEA 86
- Q4·16.0
Aliyah Boston enters the game for Sydney Colson
·
IND 94·SEA 86
- Q4·16.0
Fever timeout
IND 94·SEA 86
- Q4·16.0
Lexie Hull defensive rebound
IND 94·SEA 86
- Q4·18.1
Erica Wheeler misses 27-foot three point jumper
IND 94·SEA 86
−0.5pp
- Q4·22.1
Storm Full timeout
IND 94·SEA 86
- Q4·22.1
Ezi Magbegor defensive rebound
IND 94·SEA 86
- Q4·24.1
Lexie Hull misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 94·SEA 86
+0.6pp
- Q4·24.1
Brianna Turner enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
IND 94·SEA 86
- Q4·24.1
Lexie Hull makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 94·SEA 86
- Q4·24.1
Skylar Diggins personal foul
IND 93·SEA 86
- Q4·28.1
Erica Wheeler makes 26-foot three pointer
IND 93·SEA 86
- Q4·39.2
Gabby Williams defensive rebound
IND 93·SEA 83
- Q4·42.0
Aliyah Boston misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 93·SEA 83
- Q4·42.0
Sydney Colson enters the game for Caitlin Clark
· ·
IND 93·SEA 83
- Q4·42.0
Aliyah Boston makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 93·SEA 83
- Q4·42.0
Ezi Magbegor personal foul
IND 92·SEA 83
- Q4·44.0
Skylar Diggins makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 92·SEA 83
- Q4·44.0
Caitlin Clark enters the game for Sydney Colson
· ·
IND 92·SEA 82
- Q4·44.0
Aliyah Boston enters the game for Brianna Turner
·
IND 92·SEA 82
- Q4·44.0
Skylar Diggins makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 92·SEA 82
- Q4·44.0
Kelsey Mitchell personal foul
IND 92·SEA 81
- Q4·45.0
Kelsey Mitchell enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
IND 92·SEA 81
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
36-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-62
51
FG %
47
8-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-28
14-16
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-25
18
Assists
17
15
Turnovers
17
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Aliyah BostonIND13.9± 11.6low
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Monique BillingsIND5.1± 3.3low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA3.7± 2.2low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
- Stefanie DolsonSEA0.9± 1.3low
Steals
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
SEA
45.4%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.6%
32.1%
3PT %
33.0
▶34.1%
92.9
PPG
◀
86.0
79.5
22.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.0
14.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6