Jun 25, 25sim 94
594
14(H)86
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1ATL
WSH
5-8
9192
ATL
9-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream held off Washington Mystics, 92–91. It came down to the final possession.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
WSH · top performer
Shakira Austin
C · #0
29.4Game score
28
Pts
10
Reb
3
Ast
ATL · top performer
Brionna Jones
F · #24
16.0Game score
14
Pts
4
Reb
6
Ast
WNBA · Washington Mystics at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
WSH5-8
9192
ATL9-4
WSH5-8ATL9-4
WSH
5-8
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -12 | |
| 32 | 28 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +16 | |
| 36 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | +2 | |
USG%.28780 ORB%.03740 DRB%.12540 | ||||||||
| 20 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
| 37 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +11 | |
| 26 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 91 | 33 | 25 | 8 | 4 | 14 | ||
| DNP: S. Kone, L. Olsen | ||||||||
ATL
9-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| 27 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | |
| 33 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3 | |
| 25 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -13 | |
| 37 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 13 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 18 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 15 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +15 | |
| Team | 92 | 24 | 23 | 5 | 4 | 9 | ||
| DNP: T. Thierry, M. Caldwell | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
53
FG %
49
25
Ast
23
Season series
ATL wins series 3-1
May 16ATL90@WSH94
ATL90@WSH94Jun 15ATL89@WSH56
ATL89@WSH56Jun 20WSH91@ATL92today
WSH91@ATL92todayAug 3WSH83@ATL99
WSH83@ATL99Headlines · top performers
Game flowWSH ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 23pp · 4th Quarter · 1:26
WSHS. Austin
CGame leader · 32 min
28 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST
ATLB. Jones
FGame leader · 22 min
14 PTS · 4 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
ATL beat WSH 92-91. B. Jones led with 14 PTS, 4 REB, 6 AST. WSH outscored the other side 31-20 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs WSH
Starters vs bench
production by unitWSHstarters 90% of ptsStarters(5)
82 PTS · 29 REB · 19 AST
GS 71
Bench(4)
9 PTS · 4 REB · 6 AST
GS 5
ATLstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 19 REB · 17 AST
GS 56
Bench(4)
26 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST
GS 20
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactATL4th Quarter · 1:42 · 84-87
+9pp→ 91% WP
Brionna Jones · misses free throw 1 of 2
WSH4th Quarter · 1:26 · 86-88
+23pp→ 43% WP
Rhyne Howard · shooting foul
ATL4th Quarter · 49.1 · 87-90
+12pp→ 85% WP
Emily Engstler · lost ball turnover (Jordin Canada steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 22 | 16 | 22 | 31 | 91 |
| ATL | 24 | 23 | 25 | 20 | 92 |
Period scoring
WSH won 1 · ATL won 3
22
24
Q1
Citron 7
Hillmon 8
16
23
Q2
Austin 7
Coffey 6
22
25
Q3
Sykes 7
Gray 9
31
20
Q4
Austin 13
Howard 7
WSH
ATL
Shooting comparison
WSH
ATL
53%
34-64
FG
49%
31-63
29%
4-14
3PT
36%
8-22
79%
19-24
FT
92%
22-24
Play-by-play · 400 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 91·ATL 92
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 91·ATL 92
- Q4·0.0
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 3 of 3
WSH 91·ATL 92
- Q4·0.0
Brittney Griner enters the game for Jordin Canada
·
WSH 90·ATL 92
- Q4·0.0
Mystics offensive team rebound
WSH 90·ATL 92
- Q4·0.0
Brittney Sykes misses free throw 2 of 3
WSH 90·ATL 92
- Q4·0.0
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 1 of 3
WSH 90·ATL 92
- Q4·0.0
(00:00.1) [Mystics] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
WSH 89·ATL 92
- Q4·0.0
Allisha Gray shooting foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 89·ATL 92
+9pp
- Q4·7.1
Shakira Austin defensive rebound
WSH 89·ATL 92
+2pp
- Q4·11.1
Brionna Jones misses driving layup
WSH 89·ATL 92
- Q4·31.1
Emily Engstler makes layup (Jade Melbourne assists)
·
WSH 89·ATL 92
−3pp
- Q4·37.0
Mystics Full timeout
WSH 87·ATL 92
- Q4·37.0
Mystics offensive team rebound
WSH 87·ATL 92
−3pp
- Q4·38.1
Allisha Gray blocks Brittney Sykes 's 2-foot driving layup
·
WSH 87·ATL 92
+4pp
- Q4·47.1
Allisha Gray makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 87·ATL 92
−3pp
- Q4·47.1
Allisha Gray makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 87·ATL 91
+1pp
- Q4·47.1
Brittney Sykes shooting foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 87·ATL 90
+7pp
- Q4·49.1
Emily Engstler lost ball turnover (Jordin Canada steals)BIG MOMENT
·
WSH 87·ATL 90
+12pp
- Q4·1:04
Allisha Gray makes 5-foot two point shot (Brionna Jones assists)BIG MOMENT
·
WSH 87·ATL 90
+8pp
- Q4·1:26
Shakira Austin makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
WSH 87·ATL 88
−8pp
- Q4·1:26
(01:26) [Dream] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Dream] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
WSH 86·ATL 88
+17pp
- Q4·1:26
Dream Full timeout
WSH 86·ATL 88
- Q4·1:26
Rhyne Howard shooting foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 86·ATL 88
−23pp
- Q4·1:26
Shakira Austin makes layup (Brittney Sykes assists)BIG MOMENT
·
WSH 86·ATL 88
−7pp
- Q4·1:42
Brionna Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 84·ATL 88
−2pp
- Q4·1:42
Dream offensive team rebound
WSH 84·ATL 87
−2pp
- Q4·1:42
Brionna Jones misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
WSH 84·ATL 87
+9pp
- Q4·1:42
(01:42) [Mystics] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Mystics] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
WSH 84·ATL 87
−12pp
- Q4·1:42
Mystics Full timeout
WSH 84·ATL 87
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
34-64
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-63
53
FG %
49
4-14
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-22
19-24
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
22-24
25
Assists
23
14
Turnovers
9
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 15 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28780
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Rhyne HowardATL0.6± 1.2low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Angel ReeseATL1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
ATL
44.8%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.5%
28.8%
3PT %
33.0
▶31.7%
82.8
PPG
86.0
83.5
17.5
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.5
15.7
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.8