Jun 25, 25sim 96
594
14(H)86
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+5NY
GS
2-3
7782
NY
5-0
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ew York Liberty held off Golden State Valkyries, 82–77.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Janelle Salaun
F · #13
11.7Game score
18
Pts
13
Reb
3
Ast
NY · top performer
Breanna Stewart
F · #30
25.8Game score
27
Pts
7
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at New York Liberty · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
GS2-3
7782
NY5-0
GS2-3NY5-0
GS
2-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | |
| 20 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| 30 | 18 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 20 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -5 | |
| 31 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | |
| 20 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 25 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | |
| 8 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| Team | 77 | 41 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 13 | ||
| DNP: K. Linskens, T. Hayes, K. Martin | ||||||||
NY
5-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 27 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +11 | |
DRB%.24980 USG%.28360 ORB%.05160 | ||||||||
| 32 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +8 | |
| 30 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +14 | |
| 28 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +6 | |
| 36 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +4 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| 21 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| Team | 82 | 36 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 13 | ||
| DNP: N. Sabally, J. Jones, J. Sherrod | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
40
FG %
38
25
Ast
17
Season series
NY wins series 3-1
May 27GS67@NY95
GS67@NY95May 29GS77@NY82today
GS77@NY82todayJun 26NY81@GS78
NY81@GS78Sep 3NY58@GS66
NY58@GS66Headlines · top performers
Game flowGS ↔ NY
Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 1:47
GSJ. Salaun
FGame leader · 30 min
18 PTS · 13 REB · 3 AST
NYB. Stewart
FGame leader · 34 min
27 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
NY beat GS 82-77. B. Stewart paced them with 27 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST. Marine Johannes's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
NY vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 62% of ptsStarters(5)
48 PTS · 32 REB · 10 AST
GS 28
Bench(4)
29 PTS · 9 REB · 15 AST
GS 25
NYstarters 88% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 33 REB · 16 AST
GS 61
Bench(4)
10 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST
GS 1
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS4th Quarter · 3:11 · 75-73
+16pp→ 55% WP
Janelle Salaun · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)
NY4th Quarter · 2:24 · 75-74
+16pp→ 67% WP
Kayla Thornton · loose ball foul
GS4th Quarter · 1:47 · 77-76
+19pp→ 68% WP
Marine Johannes · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 18 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 77 |
| NY | 20 | 17 | 20 | 25 | 82 |
Period scoring
GS won 1 · NY won 3
18
20
Q1
Salaun 5
Ionescu 11
19
17
Q2
Fagbenle 5
Stewart 6
19
20
Q3
Talbot 8
Johannes 7
21
25
Q4
Salaun 8
Stewart 13
GS
NY
Shooting comparison
GS
NY
40%
29-72
FG
38%
23-61
29%
10-34
3PT
36%
13-36
64%
9-14
FT
85%
23-27
Play-by-play · 406 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 77·NY 82
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 77·NY 82
- Q4·0.0
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
GS 77·NY 82
- Q4·1.1
Stephanie Talbot misses 19-foot jumper
GS 77·NY 82
+0.9pp
- Q4·4.1
Golden State Valkyries timeout
GS 77·NY 82
- Q4·4.1
Natasha Cloud makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 77·NY 82
−0.5pp
- Q4·4.1
Natasha Cloud makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 77·NY 81
- Q4·4.1
Stephanie Talbot personal take foul
GS 77·NY 80
+2pp
- Q4·4.1
Natasha Cloud defensive rebound
GS 77·NY 80
+4pp
- Q4·8.1
Cecilia Zandalasini misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
GS 77·NY 80
+6pp
- Q4·10.0
Cecilia Zandalasini enters the game for Veronica Burton
·
GS 77·NY 80
- Q4·10.0
Janelle Salaun enters the game for Kayla Thornton
·
GS 77·NY 80
- Q4·10.0
Golden State Valkyries Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
GS 77·NY 80
+7pp
- Q4·24.1
Natasha Cloud makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
GS 77·NY 80
+14pp
- Q4·42.1
Stephanie Talbot enters the game for Janelle Salaun
·
GS 77·NY 78
- Q4·42.1
Liberty Full timeout
GS 77·NY 78
- Q4·42.1
5 second violationBIG MOMENT
GS 77·NY 78
+13pp
- Q4·42.1
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
GS 77·NY 78
- Q4·42.1
Golden State Valkyries offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 77·NY 78
−10pp
- Q4·44.1
Janelle Salaun misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
GS 77·NY 78
+10pp
- Q4·45.1
Kayla Thornton offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 77·NY 78
−9pp
- Q4·49.1
Veronica Burton misses 26-foot three point shotBIG MOMENT
GS 77·NY 78
+9pp
- Q4·53.1
Janelle Salaun defensive rebound
GS 77·NY 78
−3pp
- Q4·55.1
Breanna Stewart misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
GS 77·NY 78
−9pp
- Q4·1:13
Leonie Fiebich defensive rebound
GS 77·NY 78
+3pp
- Q4·1:17
Kayla Thornton misses 23-foot jump bank shotBIG MOMENT
GS 77·NY 78
+7pp
- Q4·1:35
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 77·NY 78
−8pp
- Q4·1:35
Kennedy Burke enters the game for Marine Johannes
·
GS 77·NY 77
- Q4·1:35
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 77·NY 77
+2pp
- Q4·1:35
Monique Billings loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
GS 77·NY 76
+14pp
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
NY
Home
29-72
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
23-61
40
FG %
38
10-34
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-36
9-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-27
25
Assists
17
13
Turnovers
13
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 15 players in cohort- Breanna StewartNY · FDRB%.24980
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Pauline AstierNY3.6± 2.5low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Breanna StewartNY1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
NY
41.3%
FG%
44.9
▶45.9%
36.1%
3PT %
◀
33.0
35.8%
86.4
PPG
86.0
▶88.0
19.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
10.1
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.3