Aug 9, 25sim 97
1486
17(H)90
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+9SEA
GS
10-12
5867
SEA
14-9
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
eattle Storm held off Golden State Valkyries, 67–58.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Temi Fagbenle
C · #14
6.8Game score
5
Pts
4
Reb
1
Ast
SEA · top performer
Nneka Ogwumike
F · #3
16.5Game score
22
Pts
8
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at Seattle Storm · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
GS10-12
5867
SEA14-9
GS10-12SEA14-9
GS
10-12
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 25 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |
| 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -7 | |
| 20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| 31 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -13 | |
| 25 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | |
| 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | |
| 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 16 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +4 | |
| Team | 58 | 35 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 11 | ||
SEA
14-9
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 36 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | |
| 30 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +13 | |
| 32 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +9 | |
| 32 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +9 | |
| 29 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +11 | |
| 12 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 15 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -12 | |
| 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +6 | |
| Team | 67 | 33 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 7 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, D. Malonga, Z. Cooke | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
32
FG %
33
13
Ast
13
Season series
Series tied 2-2
Jun 15SEA70@GS76
SEA70@GS76Jun 30SEA57@GS84
SEA57@GS84Jul 16GS58@SEA67today
GS58@SEA67todaySep 10GS73@SEA74
GS73@SEA74Headlines · top performers
Game flowGS ↔ SEA
Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 1:42
GST. Fagbenle
CGame leader · 26 min
5 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST
SEAN. Ogwumike
FGame leader · 36 min
22 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
SEA beat GS 67-58. N. Ogwumike led with 22 PTS, 8 REB, 1 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SEA vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 52% of ptsStarters(5)
30 PTS · 22 REB · 8 AST
GS 16
Bench(6)
28 PTS · 13 REB · 5 AST
GS 13
SEAstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 27 REB · 11 AST
GS 35
Bench(3)
13 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
GS 10
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS4th Quarter · 6:38 · 52-54
+10pp→ 29% WP
Cecilia Zandalasini · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)
GS4th Quarter · 3:45 · 54-56
+13pp→ 32% WP
Erica Wheeler · misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS4th Quarter · 1:42 · 54-59
+15pp→ 24% WP
Ezi Magbegor · loose ball foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 15 | 16 | 13 | 14 | 58 |
| SEA | 14 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 67 |
Period scoring
GS won 1 · SEA won 3
15
14
Q1
Fagbenle 5
Diggins 5
16
17
Q2
Salaun 6
Ogwumike 7
13
17
Q3
Salaun 4
Wheeler 11
14
19
Q4
Burton 6
Ogwumike 11
GS
SEA
Shooting comparison
GS
SEA
32%
19-60
FG
33%
21-64
23%
7-31
3PT
24%
7-29
81%
13-16
FT
82%
18-22
Play-by-play · 391 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 58·SEA 67
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 58·SEA 67
- Q4·4.0
Erica Wheeler defensive rebound
GS 58·SEA 67
- Q4·8.1
Kayla Thornton misses 32-foot three point jumper
GS 58·SEA 67
- Q4·11.1
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
GS 58·SEA 67
- Q4·11.1
Skylar Diggins makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 58·SEA 67
- Q4·11.1
Skylar Diggins makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 58·SEA 66
- Q4·11.1
Kayla Thornton personal foul
GS 58·SEA 65
- Q4·14.1
Storm timeout
GS 58·SEA 65
- Q4·14.1
Storm defensive team rebound
GS 58·SEA 65
- Q4·17.1
Cecilia Zandalasini misses 31-foot three point jumper
GS 58·SEA 65
+0.7pp
- Q4·20.1
Cecilia Zandalasini enters the game for Carla Leite
·
GS 58·SEA 65
- Q4·20.1
Golden State Valkyries timeout
GS 58·SEA 65
- Q4·20.1
Nneka Ogwumike makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 58·SEA 65
−0.6pp
- Q4·20.1
Nneka Ogwumike makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 58·SEA 64
- Q4·20.1
Kayla Thornton personal foul
GS 58·SEA 63
+2pp
- Q4·21.0
Carla Leite enters the game for Laeticia Amihere
·
GS 58·SEA 63
- Q4·21.0
Temi Fagbenle enters the game for Cecilia Zandalasini
·
GS 58·SEA 63
- Q4·21.0
Storm Full timeout
GS 58·SEA 63
- Q4·21.0
Cecilia Zandalasini makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 58·SEA 63
+2pp
- Q4·21.0
Laeticia Amihere enters the game for Temi Fagbenle
·
GS 57·SEA 63
- Q4·21.0
Cecilia Zandalasini makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 57·SEA 63
−0.6pp
- Q4·21.0
Erica Wheeler personal foul
GS 56·SEA 63
−3pp
- Q4·26.0
Tiffany Hayes enters the game for Laeticia Amihere
·
GS 56·SEA 63
- Q4·26.0
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
GS 56·SEA 63
- Q4·26.0
Erica Wheeler makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 56·SEA 63
−0.8pp
- Q4·26.0
Temi Fagbenle enters the game for Carla Leite
·
GS 56·SEA 62
- Q4·26.0
Erica Wheeler makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 56·SEA 62
- Q4·26.0
Veronica Burton personal foul
GS 56·SEA 61
+2pp
- Q4·27.2
Veronica Burton makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 56·SEA 61
+3pp
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
19-60
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
21-64
32
FG %
33
7-31
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-29
13-16
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-22
13
Assists
13
11
Turnovers
7
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.3± 7.5low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Mackenzie HolmesSEA5.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA3.7± 2.2low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Veronica BurtonGS1.0± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
SEA
41.3%
FG%
44.9
41.6%
36.1%
3PT %
◀
33.0
34.1%
86.4
PPG
◀
86.0
79.5
19.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.0
10.1
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
13.6