Aug 3, 25sim 96
1683
20(H)99
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2GS
GS
12-13
7775
ATL
15-11
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
olden State Valkyries went into Atlanta Dream and beat them, 77–75. Decided by 2.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Cecilia Zandalasini
F · #24
16.3Game score
18
Pts
8
Reb
2
Ast
ATL · top performer
Jordin Canada
G · #3
21.6Game score
21
Pts
2
Reb
8
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
GS12-13
7775
ATL15-11
GS12-13ATL15-11
GS
12-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | |
| 23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| 24 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | |
| 32 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | |
| 26 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -1 | |
| 30 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 15 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +11 | |
| 17 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +3 | |
| Team | 77 | 34 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 13 | ||
| DNP: K. Chen | ||||||||
ATL
15-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 28 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4 | |
| 20 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | |
| 34 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 36 | 21 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +7 | |
| 34 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +3 | |
| 30 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -13 | |
| Team | 75 | 27 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | ||
| DNP: T. Thierry | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
38
17
Ast
18
Season series
ATL wins series 2-1
Jul 7GS81@ATL90
GS81@ATL90Jul 29GS77@ATL75today
GS77@ATL75todayAug 18ATL79@GS63
ATL79@GS63Headlines · top performers
Game flowGS ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 35pp · 4th Quarter · 3.2
GSC. Zandalasini
FGame leader · 30 min
18 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST
ATLJ. Canada
GGame leader · 36 min
21 PTS · 2 REB · 8 AST
How it ended
GS beat ATL 77-75. C. Zandalasini led with 18 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST. GS outscored the other side 30-17 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 49% of ptsStarters(5)
38 PTS · 14 REB · 9 AST
GS 22
Bench(5)
39 PTS · 20 REB · 8 AST
GS 32
ATLstarters 79% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 19 REB · 14 AST
GS 47
Bench(4)
16 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactATL4th Quarter · 3:08 · 73-74
+17pp→ 75% WP
Temi Fagbenle · shooting foul
GS4th Quarter · 2:20 · 75-75
+20pp→ 46% WP
Maya Caldwell · misses 24-foot three point jumper
GS4th Quarter · 3.2 · 77-75
+35pp→ 90% WP
Cecilia Zandalasini · makes 11-foot pullup jump shot (Tiffany Hayes assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 20 | 19 | 30 | 8 | 77 |
| ATL | 16 | 23 | 17 | 19 | 75 |
Period scoring
GS won 2 · ATL won 2
20
16
Q1
Zandalasini 6
Griner 4
19
23
Q2
Zandalasini 5
Caldwell 6
30
17
Q3
Hayes 9
Canada 6
8
19
Q4
Zandalasini 4
Hillmon 7
GS
ATL
Shooting comparison
GS
ATL
48%
30-63
FG
38%
24-64
42%
11-26
3PT
33%
11-33
75%
6-8
FT
76%
16-21
Play-by-play · 373 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 77·ATL 75
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 77·ATL 75
- Q4·0.0
Dream offensive team rebound
GS 77·ATL 75
−1pp
- Q4·0.2
Brittney Griner misses 19-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
GS 77·ATL 75
−7pp
- Q4·3.0
Brittney Griner enters the game for Nia Coffey
·
GS 77·ATL 75
- Q4·3.0
Dream timeout
GS 77·ATL 75
−2pp
- Q4·3.2
Cecilia Zandalasini makes 11-foot pullup jump shot (Tiffany Hayes assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 77·ATL 75
−35pp
- Q4·19.1
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
GS 75·ATL 75
- Q4·19.1
Golden State Valkyries timeout
GS 75·ATL 75
- Q4·19.1
Brionna Jones lost ball turnover (Cecilia Zandalasini steals)
·
GS 75·ATL 75
−2pp
- Q4·25.1
(00:25.8) [Golden State Valkyries] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Golden State Valkyries] charged with a timeout
GS 75·ATL 75
- Q4·25.1
Golden State Valkyries Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
GS 75·ATL 75
−10pp
- Q4·25.1
Dream offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 75·ATL 75
+7pp
- Q4·27.2
Brionna Jones misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
GS 75·ATL 75
−7pp
- Q4·31.1
Dream Full timeout
GS 75·ATL 75
- Q4·31.1
Jordin Canada offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 75·ATL 75
+7pp
- Q4·34.1
Brionna Jones misses layupBIG MOMENT
GS 75·ATL 75
−8pp
- Q4·51.2
Dream defensive team rebound
GS 75·ATL 75
+3pp
- Q4·53.0
Cecilia Zandalasini misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
GS 75·ATL 75
+8pp
- Q4·55.0
Veronica Burton offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 75·ATL 75
−9pp
- Q4·1:00
Maya Caldwell blocks Tiffany Hayes 's 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
GS 75·ATL 75
−3pp
- Q4·1:15
(01:15) [Dream] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Dream] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
GS 75·ATL 75
+11pp
- Q4·1:15
Dream Full timeout
GS 75·ATL 75
- Q4·1:15
Brionna Jones turnover
GS 75·ATL 75
- Q4·1:15
Brionna Jones offensive foulBIG MOMENT
GS 75·ATL 75
−11pp
- Q4·1:33
Brionna Jones enters the game for Brittney Griner
·
GS 75·ATL 75
- Q4·1:33
Veronica Burton out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
GS 75·ATL 75
+10pp
- Q4·1:39
Cecilia Zandalasini defensive rebound
GS 75·ATL 75
−3pp
- Q4·1:44
Maya Caldwell misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
GS 75·ATL 75
−7pp
- Q4·1:50
Maya Caldwell defensive rebound
GS 75·ATL 75
+2pp
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
30-63
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
24-64
48
FG %
38
11-26
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-33
6-8
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-21
17
Assists
18
13
Turnovers
6
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Madina OkotATL5.0± 5.3low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Veronica BurtonGS0.9± 2.4low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
ATL
41.3%
FG%
44.9
▶43.5%
36.1%
3PT %
◀
33.0
31.7%
86.4
PPG
◀
86.0
83.5
19.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.5
10.1
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.8