May 30, 25sim 93
985
16(H)63
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3MIN
MIN
6-0
7471
PHX
4-2
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx went into Phoenix Mercury and beat them, 74–71. Decided by 3.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Alanna Smith
F · #8
14.9Game score
19
Pts
4
Reb
0
Ast
PHX · top performer
Satou Sabally
F · #0
23.2Game score
26
Pts
11
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN6-0
7471
PHX4-2
MIN6-0PHX4-2
MIN
6-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 36 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 18 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| 34 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +2 | |
| 35 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +2 | |
| 30 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -4 | |
| 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 22 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +12 | |
| Team | 74 | 35 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 15 | ||
| DNP: N. Collier, A. Kosu | ||||||||
PHX
4-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -15 | |
| 32 | 26 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +2 | |
| 29 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 22 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +8 | |
| 22 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +3 | |
| 23 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +13 | |
| 8 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -7 | |
| 26 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -12 | |
| 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | |
| Team | 71 | 38 | 21 | 8 | 4 | 14 | ||
| DNP: A. Thomas, N. Mack, K. Copper | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
36
FG %
39
18
Ast
21
Playoff series
PHX wins series 3-1
Sep 21PHX69@MIN82
PHX69@MIN82Sep 23PHX89@MIN83
PHX89@MIN83Sep 27MIN76@PHX84
MIN76@PHX84Sep 29MIN81@PHX86
MIN81@PHX86Headlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 39pp · 4th Quarter · 5.1
MINA. Smith
FGame leader · 34 min
19 PTS · 4 REB · 0 AST
PHXS. Sabally
FGame leader · 32 min
26 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
MIN beat PHX 74-71. A. Smith led with 19 PTS, 4 REB, 0 AST. MIN outscored the other side 21-13 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
63 PTS · 29 REB · 15 AST
GS 46
Bench(5)
11 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
GS 4
PHXstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
49 PTS · 22 REB · 17 AST
GS 38
Bench(4)
22 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST
GS 14
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX4th Quarter · 7:34 · 58-63
+11pp→ 74% WP
Kathryn Westbeld · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sami Whitcomb assists)
MIN4th Quarter · 53.1 · 71-71
+20pp→ 48% WP
Courtney Williams · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Natisha Hiedeman assists)
MIN4th Quarter · 5.1 · 74-71
+39pp→ 97% WP
Natisha Hiedeman · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Courtney Williams assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 20 | 18 | 15 | 21 | 74 |
| PHX | 17 | 22 | 19 | 13 | 71 |
Period scoring
MIN won 2 · PHX won 2
20
17
Q1
McBride 10
Brown 6
18
22
Q2
McBride 7
Sabally 8
15
19
Q3
Smith 7
Sabally 10
21
13
Q4
Hiedeman 9
Sabally 4
MIN
PHX
Shooting comparison
MIN
PHX
36%
25-69
FG
39%
28-71
28%
8-29
3PT
12%
3-26
89%
16-18
FT
86%
12-14
Play-by-play · 399 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 74·PHX 71
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 74·PHX 71
−0.7pp
- Q4·2.1
Bridget Carleton defensive rebound
MIN 74·PHX 71
- Q4·2.1
Sami Whitcomb misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 74·PHX 71
−3pp
- Q4·5.1
Bridget Carleton enters the game for Jessica Shepard
·
MIN 74·PHX 71
- Q4·5.1
Mercury Full timeout
MIN 74·PHX 71
- Q4·5.1
Natisha Hiedeman makes 23-foot three point jumper (Courtney Williams assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 74·PHX 71
−39pp
- Q4·13.1
Sami Whitcomb bad pass (Kayla McBride steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 71·PHX 71
−14pp
- Q4·15.2
Mercury Full timeout
MIN 71·PHX 71
- Q4·15.2
Kathryn Westbeld defensive rebound
MIN 71·PHX 71
+4pp
- Q4·18.1
Natisha Hiedeman misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 71·PHX 71
+7pp
- Q4·28.1
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 71·PHX 71
- Q4·28.1
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
MIN 71·PHX 71
−8pp
- Q4·28.1
Mercury offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 71·PHX 71
+6pp
- Q4·28.1
Kathryn Westbeld misses 24-foot three point shot
MIN 71·PHX 71
−4pp
- Q4·53.1
Courtney Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Natisha Hiedeman assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 71·PHX 71
−21pp
- Q4·1:11
Monique Akoa Makani makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Lexi Held assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 68·PHX 71
+8pp
- Q4·1:19
Satou Sabally offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 68·PHX 69
+9pp
- Q4·1:19
Monique Akoa Makani misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIN 68·PHX 69
−9pp
- Q4·1:21
Satou Sabally offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 68·PHX 69
+9pp
- Q4·1:24
Sami Whitcomb misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIN 68·PHX 69
−10pp
- Q4·1:37
Courtney Williams lost ball turnover (Monique Akoa Makani steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 68·PHX 69
+11pp
- Q4·1:38
Courtney Williams defensive rebound
MIN 68·PHX 69
−3pp
- Q4·1:41
Alanna Smith blocks Satou Sabally 's 2-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
MIN 68·PHX 69
−10pp
- Q4·1:55
Alanna Smith makes 2-foot layup (Courtney Williams assists)
·
MIN 68·PHX 69
- Q4·2:05
Monique Akoa Makani personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 66·PHX 69
−7pp
- Q4·2:10
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 66·PHX 69
+0.5pp
- Q4·2:17
Satou Sabally makes driving layup (Monique Akoa Makani assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 66·PHX 69
+7pp
- Q4·2:29
Lexi Held offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 66·PHX 67
+8pp
- Q4·2:35
Monique Akoa Makani misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIN 66·PHX 67
−8pp
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
25-69
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-71
36
FG %
39
8-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
3-26
16-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-14
18
Assists
21
15
Turnovers
14
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 9 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
PHX
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.4%
35.3%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.3%
89.7
PPG
◀
86.0
85.6
21.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.1
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9