Jul 15, 25sim 97
1178
129689(H)77
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3NY
NY
11-3
8178
GS
7-7
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ew York Liberty went into Golden State Valkyries and beat them, 81–78. Decided by 3.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Breanna Stewart
F · #30
18.8Game score
23
Pts
10
Reb
3
Ast
GS · top performer
Kate Martin
G · #20
12.5Game score
21
Pts
2
Reb
0
Ast
WNBA · New York Liberty at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
NY11-3
8178
GS7-7
NY11-3GS7-7
NY
11-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 37 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +6 | |
DRB%.24980 USG%.28360 ORB%.05160 | ||||||||
| 16 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | |
| 34 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +9 | |
| 27 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -7 | |
| 29 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -8 | |
| 30 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 18 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +12 | |
| Team | 81 | 37 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | ||
| DNP: M. Davis | ||||||||
GS
7-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 28 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +7 | |
| 20 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| 34 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | |
| 34 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | |
| 13 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 24 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -9 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| Team | 78 | 38 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 10 | ||
| DNP: B. Hall | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
36
FG %
39
18
Ast
20
Season series
NY wins series 3-1
May 27GS67@NY95
GS67@NY95May 29GS77@NY82
GS77@NY82Jun 26NY81@GS78today
NY81@GS78todaySep 3NY58@GS66
NY58@GS66Headlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 25pp · 4th Quarter · 1:48
NYB. Stewart
FGame leader · 37 min
23 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST
GSK. Martin
GGame leader · 24 min
21 PTS · 2 REB · 0 AST
How it ended
NY beat GS 81-78. B. Stewart led with 23 PTS, 10 REB, 3 AST. Sabrina Ionescu's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 62% of ptsStarters(5)
50 PTS · 27 REB · 15 AST
GS 35
Bench(4)
31 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST
GS 28
GSstarters 62% of ptsStarters(5)
48 PTS · 29 REB · 20 AST
GS 40
Bench(4)
30 PTS · 9 REB · 0 AST
GS 19
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS4th Quarter · 1:59 · 74-75
+23pp→ 56% WP
Kate Martin · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephanie Talbot assists)
NY4th Quarter · 1:48 · 75-75
+25pp→ 70% WP
Sabrina Ionescu · makes free throw 1 of 3
NY4th Quarter · 26.0 · 77-75
+23pp→ 87% WP
Tiffany Hayes · lost ball turnover (Sabrina Ionescu steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 29 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 81 |
| GS | 32 | 11 | 18 | 17 | 78 |
Period scoring
NY won 1 · GS won 1
29
32
Q1
Stewart 12
Hayes 12
17
11
Q2
Stewart 9
Hayes 3
18
18
Q3
Johannes 9
Martin 5
17
17
Q4
Ionescu 10
Martin 14
NY
GS
Shooting comparison
NY
GS
36%
26-72
FG
39%
28-72
33%
12-36
3PT
34%
12-35
89%
17-19
FT
83%
10-12
Play-by-play · 383 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 81·GS 78
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 81·GS 78
−3pp
- Q4·2.1
Veronica Burton offensive rebound
NY 81·GS 78
+0.7pp
- Q4·3.0
Kate Martin misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 81·GS 78
−19pp
- Q4·6.0
Rebekah Gardner loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
NY 81·GS 78
+17pp
- Q4·6.0
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
NY 81·GS 78
+1pp
- Q4·7.0
Kayla Thornton misses 24-foot three point jumper
NY 81·GS 78
−3pp
- Q4·8.2
Golden State Valkyries timeout
NY 81·GS 78
- Q4·8.2
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 81·GS 78
+3pp
- Q4·8.2
Natasha Cloud enters the game for Marine Johannes
·
NY 80·GS 78
- Q4·8.2
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 80·GS 78
−2pp
- Q4·8.2
Tiffany Hayes personal foul
NY 79·GS 78
−2pp
- Q4·11.1
Sabrina Ionescu enters the game for Natasha Cloud
·
NY 79·GS 78
+2pp
- Q4·11.1
Liberty Full timeout
NY 79·GS 78
−0.6pp
- Q4·12.0
Kate Martin makes 23-foot three pointer (Veronica Burton assists)
·
NY 79·GS 78
−0.6pp
- Q4·16.1
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
NY 79·GS 75
+2pp
- Q4·18.1
Kayla Thornton misses 14-foot two point shot
NY 79·GS 75
−3pp
- Q4·21.1
Natasha Cloud enters the game for Sabrina Ionescu
·
NY 79·GS 75
- Q4·21.1
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
NY 79·GS 75
- Q4·21.1
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 79·GS 75
+3pp
- Q4·21.1
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 78·GS 75
−0.5pp
- Q4·21.1
Veronica Burton personal take foulBIG MOMENT
NY 77·GS 75
−9pp
- Q4·26.0
Tiffany Hayes lost ball turnover (Sabrina Ionescu steals)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 77·GS 75
−23pp
- Q4·42.0
Stephanie Talbot defensive rebound
NY 77·GS 75
+4pp
- Q4·45.1
Breanna Stewart misses 16-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
NY 77·GS 75
−6pp
- Q4·49.1
(00:49.5) [Golden State Valkyries] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Golden State Valkyries] charged with a timeout
NY 77·GS 75
- Q4·49.1
Golden State Valkyries Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
NY 77·GS 75
+17pp
- Q4·1:05
Marine Johannes defensive rebound
NY 77·GS 75
−5pp
- Q4·1:08
Kate Martin misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
NY 77·GS 75
−12pp
- Q4·1:20
Veronica Burton defensive rebound
NY 77·GS 75
+4pp
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
GS
Home
26-72
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-72
36
FG %
39
12-36
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-35
17-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-12
18
Assists
20
8
Turnovers
10
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort- Breanna StewartNY · FDRB%.24980
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Pauline AstierNY3.6± 2.5low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Breanna StewartNY1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
GS
45.9%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.3%
35.8%
3PT %
33.0
▶36.1%
88.0
PPG
◀
86.0
86.4
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.1
14.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1