Jun 26, 25sim 97
981
129689(H)78
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1PHX
PHX
15-6
7877
GS
10-11
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury went into Golden State Valkyries and beat them, 78–77. It came down to the final possession.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
DeWanna Bonner
F · #14
24.1Game score
22
Pts
11
Reb
2
Ast
GS · top performer
Veronica Burton
G · #22
16.3Game score
17
Pts
2
Reb
6
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX15-6
7877
GS10-11
PHX15-6GS10-11
PHX
15-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 6 | +5 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 26 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +4 | |
| 28 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +5 | |
| 29 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 26 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +11 | |
| 29 | 22 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -11 | |
| 9 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | |
| 18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -11 | |
| Team | 78 | 35 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 14 | ||
GS
10-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 38 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | |
| 19 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -15 | |
| 33 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +3 | |
| 31 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -10 | |
| 19 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +21 | |
| 20 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
| 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 15 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| Team | 77 | 36 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 9 | ||
| DNP: K. Chen | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
47
FG %
34
23
Ast
23
Season series
PHX wins series 4-0
Jun 6GS77@PHX86
GS77@PHX86Jul 15PHX78@GS77today
PHX78@GS77todayAug 20PHX98@GS91
PHX98@GS91Aug 23GS72@PHX81
GS72@PHX81Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 45pp · 4th Quarter · 1.0
PHXD. Bonner
FGame leader · 29 min
22 PTS · 11 REB · 2 AST
GSV. Burton
GGame leader · 31 min
17 PTS · 2 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
PHX beat GS 78-77. D. Bonner led with 22 PTS, 11 REB, 2 AST. PHX outscored the other side 20-12 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 65% of ptsStarters(5)
51 PTS · 19 REB · 21 AST
GS 38
Bench(3)
27 PTS · 16 REB · 2 AST
GS 25
GSstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
52 PTS · 17 REB · 16 AST
GS 37
Bench(5)
25 PTS · 19 REB · 7 AST
GS 21
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS4th Quarter · 1:32 · 73-72
+26pp→ 65% WP
Cecilia Zandalasini · enters the game for Monique Billings
PHX4th Quarter · 1.0 · 77-77
+41pp→ 95% WP
Cecilia Zandalasini · shooting foul
PHX4th Quarter · 1.0 · 78-77
+45pp→ 96% WP
Alyssa Thomas · makes free throw 2 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 16 | 20 | 23 | 19 | 78 |
| GS | 20 | 12 | 26 | 19 | 77 |
Period scoring
PHX won 1 · GS won 2
16
20
Q1
Westbeld 6
Hayes 8
20
12
Q2
Bonner 8
Billings 4
23
26
Q3
Bonner 8
Billings 19
19
19
Q4
Thomas 7
Salaun 8
PHX
GS
Shooting comparison
PHX
GS
47%
27-57
FG
34%
25-74
41%
12-29
3PT
42%
14-33
63%
12-19
FT
87%
13-15
Play-by-play · 395 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 78·GS 77
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 78·GS 77
−4pp
- Q4·1.0
Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 78·GS 77
−45pp
- Q4·1.0
Monique Billings enters the game for Cecilia Zandalasini
·
PHX 77·GS 77
- Q4·1.0
Mercury offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
PHX 77·GS 77
+35pp
- Q4·1.0
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 77·GS 77
+9pp
- Q4·1.0
Cecilia Zandalasini shooting foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 77·GS 77
−41pp
- Q4·6.1
Kayla Thornton enters the game for Janelle Salaun
·
PHX 77·GS 77
- Q4·6.1
Mercury timeout
PHX 77·GS 77
- Q4·6.1
Janelle Salaun makes 17-foot jumper (Tiffany Hayes assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 77·GS 77
+25pp
- Q4·9.0
Veronica Burton enters the game for Monique Billings
·
PHX 77·GS 75
- Q4·9.0
Golden State Valkyries timeout
PHX 77·GS 75
- Q4·9.0
Monique Billings defensive rebound
PHX 77·GS 75
−2pp
- Q4·9.1
DeWanna Bonner misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 77·GS 75
+16pp
- Q4·9.1
Temi Fagbenle enters the game for Veronica Burton
·
PHX 77·GS 75
- Q4·9.1
Monique Billings enters the game for Kayla Thornton
·
PHX 77·GS 75
- Q4·9.1
DeWanna Bonner makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 77·GS 75
−2pp
- Q4·9.1
Veronica Burton personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 76·GS 75
−19pp
- Q4·10.1
Janelle Salaun makes 24-foot three pointer (Veronica Burton assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 76·GS 75
+19pp
- Q4·15.1
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
PHX 76·GS 72
- Q4·15.1
DeWanna Bonner makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 76·GS 72
+2pp
- Q4·15.1
Mercury offensive team rebound
PHX 75·GS 72
+2pp
- Q4·15.1
DeWanna Bonner misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 75·GS 72
+2pp
- Q4·15.1
Kayla Thornton personal foul
PHX 75·GS 72
−4pp
- Q4·16.1
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 75·GS 72
+4pp
- Q4·16.1
Veronica Burton personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 75·GS 72
−8pp
- Q4·17.1
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 75·GS 72
- Q4·17.1
Kathryn Westbeld defensive rebound
PHX 75·GS 72
−3pp
- Q4·17.1
Cecilia Zandalasini misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
PHX 75·GS 72
−13pp
- Q4·23.1
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
PHX 75·GS 72
−3pp
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
GS
Home
27-57
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
25-74
47
FG %
34
12-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-33
12-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-15
23
Assists
23
14
Turnovers
9
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 12 players in cohort
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Gabby WilliamsGS2.9± 2.4low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
GS
43.4%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.3%
32.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶36.1%
85.6
PPG
86.0
86.4
18.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.1
12.9
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1