Aug 10, 25sim 94
2074
11(H)66
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+15PHX
NY
11-4
91106
PHX
12-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury held off New York Liberty, 106–91.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Nyara Sabally
F · #8
15.3Game score
16
Pts
6
Reb
0
Ast
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
23.3Game score
17
Pts
9
Reb
15
Ast
WNBA · New York Liberty at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
NY11-4
91106
PHX12-4
NY11-4PHX12-4
NY
11-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -20 | |
DRB%.24980 USG%.28360 ORB%.05160 | ||||||||
| 22 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -22 | |
| 16 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 30 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -16 | |
| 26 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| 15 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +7 | |
| 23 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -11 | |
| 18 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +6 | |
| Team | 91 | 30 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 12 | ||
| DNP: J. Jones | ||||||||
PHX
12-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 17 | 9 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +15 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 18 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 24 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +26 | |
| 25 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 18 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 19 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 8 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +8 | |
| 22 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +21 | |
| 27 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +9 | |
| Team | 106 | 36 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 12 | ||
| DNP: L. Held | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
51
FG %
53
21
Ast
30
Playoff series
PHX wins series 2-1
Sep 14NY76@PHX69
NY76@PHX69Sep 18PHX86@NY60
PHX86@NY60Sep 20NY73@PHX79
NY73@PHX79Headlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 12pp · 1st Quarter · 10:00
NYN. Sabally
FGame leader · 22 min
16 PTS · 6 REB · 0 AST
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 31 min
17 PTS · 9 REB · 15 AST
How it ended
PHX beat NY 106-91. A. Thomas led with 17 PTS, 9 REB, 15 AST. PHX outscored the other side 28-19 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 18 REB · 18 AST
GS 51
Bench(5)
33 PTS · 12 REB · 3 AST
GS 24
PHXstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 22 REB · 27 AST
GS 60
Bench(6)
38 PTS · 14 REB · 3 AST
GS 33
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY1st Quarter · 10:00 · 0-0
+12pp→ 70% WP
Breanna Stewart · vs. Satou Sabally (Sabrina Ionescu gains possession)
PHX2nd Quarter · 5:36 · 27-42
+9pp→ 84% WP
Kahleah Copper · bad pass (Marine Johannes steals)
PHX2nd Quarter · 2:23 · 40-50
+9pp→ 74% WP
Satou Sabally · makes 25-foot three pointer
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 19 | 24 | 27 | 21 | 91 |
| PHX | 28 | 33 | 27 | 18 | 106 |
Period scoring
NY won 1 · PHX won 2
19
28
Q1
Burke 10
Westbeld 11
24
33
Q2
Johannes 9
Copper 10
27
27
Q3
Cloud 10
Sabally 9
21
18
Q4
Ionescu 6
Sabally 6
NY
PHX
Shooting comparison
NY
PHX
51%
33-65
FG
53%
41-78
33%
6-18
3PT
46%
18-39
76%
19-25
FT
86%
6-7
Play-by-play · 384 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 91·PHX 106
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 91·PHX 106
- Q4·6.1
Liberty defensive team rebound
NY 91·PHX 106
- Q4·7.1
Natasha Mack misses 25-foot three point jumper
NY 91·PHX 106
- Q4·19.1
Mercury offensive team rebound
NY 91·PHX 106
- Q4·22.1
Natasha Mack misses 15-foot jumper
NY 91·PHX 106
- Q4·39.1
Isabelle Harrison makes 10-foot jumper (Natasha Cloud assists)
·
NY 91·PHX 106
- Q4·52.0
Kiana Williams makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot
NY 89·PHX 106
- Q4·1:04
Murjanatu Musa offensive rebound
NY 89·PHX 104
- Q4·1:07
Kiana Williams misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
NY 89·PHX 104
- Q4·1:23
Murjanatu Musa defensive rebound
NY 89·PHX 104
- Q4·1:26
Isabelle Harrison misses 14-foot two point shot
NY 89·PHX 104
- Q4·1:48
Isabelle Harrison enters the game for Nyara Sabally
· ·
NY 89·PHX 104
- Q4·1:48
8 second turnover
NY 89·PHX 104
- Q4·1:56
Nyara Sabally makes free throw 2 of 2
·
NY 89·PHX 104
- Q4·1:56
Natasha Cloud enters the game for Marine Johannes
·
NY 88·PHX 104
- Q4·1:56
Nyara Sabally makes free throw 1 of 2
·
NY 88·PHX 104
- Q4·1:56
Natasha Mack shooting foul
NY 87·PHX 104
- Q4·2:08
Murjanatu Musa makes 2-foot layup (Kathryn Westbeld assists)
·
NY 87·PHX 104
- Q4·2:32
Nyara Sabally makes two point shot
·
NY 87·PHX 102
- Q4·2:33
Nyara Sabally offensive rebound
·
NY 85·PHX 102
- Q4·2:37
Kennedy Burke misses driving floating jump shot
NY 85·PHX 102
- Q4·2:45
Nyara Sabally offensive rebound
·
NY 85·PHX 102
- Q4·2:49
Nyara Sabally misses free throw 2 of 2
·
NY 85·PHX 102
- Q4·2:49
Liberty offensive team rebound
NY 85·PHX 102
- Q4·2:49
Nyara Sabally misses free throw 1 of 2
·
NY 85·PHX 102
- Q4·2:49
Rebekah Gardner enters the game for Jaylyn Sherrod
·
NY 85·PHX 102
- Q4·2:49
Natasha Mack enters the game for Sami Whitcomb
·
NY 85·PHX 102
- Q4·2:49
Kitija Laksa enters the game for Alyssa Thomas
·
NY 85·PHX 102
- Q4·2:49
Kathryn Westbeld enters the game for Monique Akoa Makani
·
NY 85·PHX 102
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
33-65
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
41-78
51
FG %
53
6-18
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
18-39
19-25
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
6-7
21
Assists
30
12
Turnovers
12
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 12 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+
Breanna StewartNY · FDRB%.24980- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.9%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Pauline AstierNY3.6± 2.5low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
PHX
45.9%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.4%
35.8%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.3%
88.0
PPG
◀
86.0
85.6
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.1
14.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9