Jun 28, 25sim 94
991
11(H)106
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8ATL
ATL
20-11
7466
PHX
19-12
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream went into Phoenix Mercury and beat them, 74–66.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Brionna Jones
F · #24
18.7Game score
15
Pts
11
Reb
4
Ast
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
19.3Game score
21
Pts
8
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL20-11
7466
PHX19-12
ATL20-11PHX19-12
ATL
20-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +5 | |
| 36 | 13 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +14 | |
| 37 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +12 | |
| 25 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | |
| 15 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +13 | |
| 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | |
| 27 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 16 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| Team | 74 | 38 | 20 | 11 | 6 | 10 | ||
| DNP: K. Smalls, T. Thierry, S. Walker-Kimbrough | ||||||||
PHX
19-12
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 22 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +5 | |
| 29 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 32 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 21 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 26 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -12 | |
| 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 20 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -5 | |
| Team | 66 | 34 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 12 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown, K. Laksa, L. Held | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
38
FG %
35
20
Ast
16
Season series
ATL wins series 3-0
Jul 24ATL90@PHX79
ATL90@PHX79Aug 1PHX72@ATL95
PHX72@ATL95Aug 10ATL74@PHX66today
ATL74@PHX66todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 24pp · 4th Quarter · 4:37
ATLB. Jones
FGame leader · 26 min
15 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 34 min
21 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
ATL beat PHX 74-66. B. Jones led with 15 PTS, 11 REB, 4 AST. Alyssa Thomas's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
63 PTS · 33 REB · 15 AST
GS 59
Bench(4)
11 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
GS 6
PHXstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
42 PTS · 25 REB · 14 AST
GS 29
Bench(3)
24 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST
GS 11
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactATL4th Quarter · 4:37 · 61-57
+24pp→ 80% WP
Alyssa Thomas · misses 18-foot jumper
PHX4th Quarter · 6:11 · 58-55
+14pp→ 38% WP
Rhyne Howard · technical foul
PHX4th Quarter · 50.9 · 71-66
+17pp→ 21% WP
Maya Caldwell · personal foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 24 | 15 | 14 | 21 | 74 |
| PHX | 19 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 66 |
Period scoring
ATL won 2 · PHX won 1
24
19
Q1
Hillmon 6
Bonner 5
15
15
Q2
Hillmon 3
Thomas 9
14
16
Q3
Canada 6
Thomas 7
21
16
Q4
Gray 7
Thomas 8
ATL
PHX
Shooting comparison
ATL
PHX
38%
25-65
FG
35%
24-69
28%
9-32
3PT
26%
6-23
79%
15-19
FT
86%
12-14
Play-by-play · 404 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 74·PHX 66
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 74·PHX 66
- Q4·14.7
Naz Hillmon makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 74·PHX 66
- Q4·14.7
Naz Hillmon makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 73·PHX 66
- Q4·14.7
Sami Whitcomb personal take foul
ATL 72·PHX 66
−1pp
- Q4·29.3
Sami Whitcomb bad pass (Te-Hina Paopao steals)
·
ATL 72·PHX 66
−3pp
- Q4·40.8
Mercury defensive team rebound
ATL 72·PHX 66
- Q4·41.8
Allisha Gray misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 72·PHX 66
+4pp
- Q4·41.8
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
ATL 72·PHX 66
- Q4·41.8
Allisha Gray makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 72·PHX 66
- Q4·41.8
Kahleah Copper personal foul
ATL 71·PHX 66
−3pp
- Q4·42.7
Dream Full timeout
ATL 71·PHX 66
- Q4·42.7
Brionna Jones enters the game for Nia Coffey
·
ATL 71·PHX 66
- Q4·42.7
Dream defensive team rebound
ATL 71·PHX 66
−1pp
- Q4·45.5
Kahleah Copper misses 24-foot three point jumper
ATL 71·PHX 66
−4pp
- Q4·49.4
Mercury Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
ATL 71·PHX 66
−12pp
- Q4·50.9
Maya Caldwell personal foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 71·PHX 66
+17pp
- Q4·56.4
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
ATL 71·PHX 66
- Q4·56.4
Mercury timeout
ATL 71·PHX 66
- Q4·56.4
Sami Whitcomb defensive rebound
ATL 71·PHX 66
- Q4·58.0
Allisha Gray misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 71·PHX 66
+3pp
- Q4·58.0
Sami Whitcomb enters the game for Kathryn Westbeld
·
ATL 71·PHX 66
- Q4·58.0
Allisha Gray makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 71·PHX 66
- Q4·58.0
Satou Sabally personal foul
ATL 70·PHX 66
−5pp
- Q4·1:10
Satou Sabally makes two point shot
ATL 70·PHX 66
+3pp
- Q4·1:10
Satou Sabally offensive rebound
ATL 70·PHX 64
+1pp
- Q4·1:10
DeWanna Bonner misses driving layup
ATL 70·PHX 64
−2pp
- Q4·1:30
Brionna Jones turnover
ATL 70·PHX 64
- Q4·1:30
Brionna Jones offensive foul
ATL 70·PHX 64
+2pp
- Q4·1:37
Brionna Jones defensive rebound
ATL 70·PHX 64
−0.6pp
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
25-65
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
24-69
38
FG %
35
9-32
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-23
15-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-14
20
Assists
16
10
Turnovers
12
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 13 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
PHX
43.5%
FG%
44.9
43.4%
31.7%
3PT %
33.0
▶32.3%
83.5
PPG
86.0
▶85.6
19.5
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.1
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9