Jun 22, 25sim 93
979
14(H)89
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+4MIN
MIN
13-2
9692
ATL
10-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx went into Atlanta Dream and beat them, 96–92 in overtime. Decided by 4.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
20.1Game score
26
Pts
7
Reb
6
Ast
ATL · top performer
Brionna Jones
F · #24
16.7Game score
18
Pts
8
Reb
0
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final / OT
MIN13-2
9692
ATL10-6
MIN13-2ATL10-6
MIN
13-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 37 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| 30 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | |
| 40 | 26 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +3 | |
| 38 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -3 | |
| 34 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 19 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 15 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +9 | |
| 11 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 96 | 28 | 30 | 6 | 5 | 16 | ||
| DNP: D. Miller, A. Pili, A. Kosu | ||||||||
ATL
10-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 36 | 18 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 28 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | |
| 42 | 17 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
| 35 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +7 | |
| 44 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | |
| 25 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +3 | |
| 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -11 | |
| Team | 92 | 40 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 13 | ||
| DNP: T. Thierry | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
43
30
Ast
21
Season series
ATL wins series 2-1
Jun 27MIN96@ATL92today
MIN96@ATL92todayJul 27ATL90@MIN86
ATL90@MIN86Aug 21MIN73@ATL75
MIN73@ATL75Headlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 30pp · OT · 20.1
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 40 min
26 PTS · 7 REB · 6 AST
ATLB. Jones
FGame leader · 36 min
18 PTS · 8 REB · 0 AST
How it ended
MIN beat ATL 96-92. N. Collier paced them with 26 PTS, 7 REB, 6 AST. MIN outscored the other side 28-20 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
83 PTS · 22 REB · 24 AST
GS 66
Bench(4)
13 PTS · 6 REB · 6 AST
GS 9
ATLstarters 87% of ptsStarters(5)
80 PTS · 32 REB · 20 AST
GS 64
Bench(5)
12 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST
GS 7
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMIN4th Quarter · 1:34 · 79-84
+15pp→ 24% WP
Rhyne Howard · personal foul
MIN4th Quarter · 21.0 · 84-86
+17pp→ 50% WP
Jordin Canada · personal foul
ATLOT · 3:46 · 86-86
+14pp→ 68% WP
Napheesa Collier · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 28 | 24 | 17 | 17 | 10 | 96 |
| ATL | 20 | 27 | 21 | 18 | 6 | 92 |
Period scoring
MIN won 2 · ATL won 3
28
20
Q1
Collier 11
Griner 8
24
27
Q2
Carleton 8
Gray 7
17
21
Q3
Samuelson 6
Jones 8
17
18
Q4
McBride 8
Hillmon 7
10
6
OT
Collier 4
Gray 4
MIN
ATL
Shooting comparison
MIN
ATL
46%
33-72
FG
43%
33-76
38%
13-34
3PT
18%
4-22
94%
17-18
FT
81%
22-27
Play-by-play · 453 plays
period
event
player
- OT·0.0
End of Game
MIN 96·ATL 92
- OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
MIN 96·ATL 92
- OT·0.1
Kayla McBride defensive rebound
MIN 96·ATL 92
−2pp
- OT·5.1
Naz Hillmon misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIN 96·ATL 92
−11pp
- OT·7.1
Naz Hillmon enters the game for Jordin Canada
·
MIN 96·ATL 92
- OT·7.1
Bridget Carleton enters the game for Karlie Samuelson
·
MIN 96·ATL 92
- OT·7.1
Napheesa Collier personal take foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 96·ATL 92
+6pp
- OT·13.1
Karlie Samuelson enters the game for Bridget Carleton
·
MIN 96·ATL 92
- OT·13.1
Allisha Gray enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
MIN 96·ATL 92
- OT·13.1
Dream Full timeout
MIN 96·ATL 92
- OT·13.1
Kayla McBride makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 96·ATL 92
+3pp
- OT·13.1
Kayla McBride makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 95·ATL 92
−1pp
- OT·13.1
Naz Hillmon personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 94·ATL 92
−9pp
- OT·14.0
Brittney Griner enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
MIN 94·ATL 92
- OT·14.0
Naz Hillmon enters the game for Shatori Walker-Kimbrough
·
MIN 94·ATL 92
- OT·14.0
Lynx timeout
MIN 94·ATL 92
- OT·14.0
Allisha Gray makes driving layup (Rhyne Howard assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 94·ATL 92
+5pp
- OT·17.1
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Maya Caldwell
·
MIN 94·ATL 90
- OT·17.1
Allisha Gray enters the game for Brittney Griner
·
MIN 94·ATL 90
- OT·17.1
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
MIN 94·ATL 90
- OT·17.1
Dream Full timeout
MIN 94·ATL 90
- OT·17.1
Kayla McBride makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 94·ATL 90
+4pp
- OT·17.1
Kayla McBride makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 93·ATL 90
−1pp
- OT·17.1
Rhyne Howard personal take foul
MIN 92·ATL 90
−0.5pp
- OT·19.0
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
MIN 92·ATL 90
- OT·19.0
Rhyne Howard personal take foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 92·ATL 90
−13pp
- OT·20.1
Brittney Griner enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
MIN 92·ATL 90
- OT·20.1
Lynx timeout
MIN 92·ATL 90
- OT·20.1
Kayla McBride defensive rebound
MIN 92·ATL 90
−3pp
- OT·20.1
Alanna Smith blocks Jordin Canada 's 3-foot driving layup
·
MIN 92·ATL 90
+3pp
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
33-72
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
33-76
46
FG %
43
13-34
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-22
17-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
22-27
30
Assists
21
16
Turnovers
13
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.9%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Allisha GrayATL17.3± 12.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Madina OkotATL5.6± 5.0low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
ATL
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.5%
35.3%
3PT %
◀
33.0
31.7%
89.7
PPG
◀
86.0
83.5
21.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.5
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.8