Jul 11, 25sim 98
2082
5(H)99
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+27GS
SEA
10-7
5784
GS
9-7
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
olden State Valkyries held off Seattle Storm, 84–57. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer
Skylar Diggins
G · #4
13.6Game score
18
Pts
5
Reb
6
Ast
GS · top performer
Tiffany Hayes
G · #15
17.8Game score
21
Pts
3
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Seattle Storm at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SEA10-7
5784
GS9-7
SEA10-7GS9-7
SEA
10-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -24 | |
| 30 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -22 | |
| 21 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -19 | |
| 33 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -25 | |
| 28 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -13 | |
| 18 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -13 | |
| 11 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| 22 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -12 | |
| Team | 57 | 38 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 11 | ||
GS
9-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 19 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +7 | |
| 18 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +17 | |
| 15 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +11 | |
| 26 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +18 | |
| 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +22 | |
| 18 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +10 | |
| 20 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
| 26 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +22 | |
| 23 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +10 | |
| Team | 84 | 41 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 16 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
27
FG %
48
13
Ast
20
Season series
Series tied 2-2
Jun 15SEA70@GS76
SEA70@GS76Jun 30SEA57@GS84today
SEA57@GS84todayJul 16GS58@SEA67
GS58@SEA67Sep 10GS73@SEA74
GS73@SEA74Headlines · top performers
Game flowSEA ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 11pp · 3rd Quarter · 2:52
SEAS. Diggins
GGame leader · 33 min
18 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST
GST. Hayes
GGame leader · 26 min
21 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
GS beat SEA 84-57. T. Hayes led with 21 PTS, 3 REB, 4 AST. GS outscored the other side 31-17 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs SEA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSEAstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
43 PTS · 26 REB · 11 AST
GS 28
Bench(4)
14 PTS · 12 REB · 2 AST
GS 3
GSstarters 62% of ptsStarters(5)
52 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST
GS 40
Bench(6)
32 PTS · 23 REB · 8 AST
GS 26
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSEA2nd Quarter · 1:04 · 27-32
+9pp→ 39% WP
Erica Wheeler · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alysha Clark assists)
GS3rd Quarter · 9:40 · 27-36
+8pp→ 76% WP
Veronica Burton · makes 2-foot layup (Tiffany Hayes assists)
GS3rd Quarter · 2:52 · 42-56
+11pp→ 96% WP
Alysha Clark · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 14 | 13 | 17 | 13 | 57 |
| GS | 23 | 11 | 31 | 19 | 84 |
Period scoring
SEA won 1 · GS won 3
14
23
Q1
Diggins 8
Hayes 5
13
11
Q2
Wheeler 6
Hayes 6
17
31
Q3
Cooke 7
Clark 13
13
19
Q4
Diggins 4
Amihere 8
SEA
GS
Shooting comparison
SEA
GS
27%
20-74
FG
48%
31-64
21%
6-28
3PT
30%
8-27
79%
11-14
FT
78%
14-18
Play-by-play · 385 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 57·GS 84
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 57·GS 84
- Q4·21.0
Laeticia Amihere makes driving layup
SEA 57·GS 84
- Q4·44.0
Kaitlyn Chen defensive rebound
SEA 57·GS 82
- Q4·47.0
Erica Wheeler misses 11-foot pullup jump shot
SEA 57·GS 82
- Q4·58.0
Kate Martin bad pass (Dominique Malonga steals)
·
SEA 57·GS 82
- Q4·1:02
Kate Martin defensive rebound
SEA 57·GS 82
- Q4·1:05
Gabby Williams misses 6-foot two point shot
SEA 57·GS 82
- Q4·1:15
Kaitlyn Chen out of bounds lost ball turnover
SEA 57·GS 82
- Q4·1:33
Erica Wheeler makes 23-foot three pointer
SEA 57·GS 82
- Q4·1:38
Chloe Bibby personal foul
SEA 54·GS 82
- Q4·1:39
Mackenzie Holmes offensive rebound
SEA 54·GS 82
- Q4·1:41
Dominique Malonga misses two point shot
SEA 54·GS 82
- Q4·1:42
Dominique Malonga offensive rebound
SEA 54·GS 82
- Q4·1:42
Dominique Malonga misses layup
SEA 54·GS 82
- Q4·1:55
Bree Hall traveling
SEA 54·GS 82
- Q4·2:00
Zia Cooke personal foul
SEA 54·GS 82
- Q4·2:11
Mackenzie Holmes makes layup
SEA 54·GS 82
- Q4·2:15
Mackenzie Holmes offensive rebound
SEA 52·GS 82
- Q4·2:15
Gabby Williams misses 24-foot three point jumper
SEA 52·GS 82
- Q4·2:22
Erica Wheeler defensive rebound
SEA 52·GS 82
- Q4·2:26
Chloe Bibby misses 25-foot three point jumper
SEA 52·GS 82
- Q4·2:33
Bree Hall defensive rebound
SEA 52·GS 82
- Q4·2:35
Dominique Malonga misses two point shot
SEA 52·GS 82
- Q4·2:42
Bree Hall lost ball turnover (Gabby Williams steals)
·
SEA 52·GS 82
- Q4·2:54
Chloe Bibby defensive rebound
SEA 52·GS 82
- Q4·2:57
Zia Cooke misses 24-foot three point jumper
SEA 52·GS 82
- Q4·3:17
Storm defensive team rebound
SEA 52·GS 82
- Q4·3:17
Gabby Williams blocks Kate Martin 's 6-foot driving layup
·
SEA 52·GS 82
- Q4·3:17
Zia Cooke enters the game for Nneka Ogwumike
·
SEA 52·GS 82
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
GS
Home
20-74
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-64
27
FG %
48
6-28
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-27
11-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
14-18
13
Assists
20
11
Turnovers
16
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.3± 7.5low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Mackenzie HolmesSEA5.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA3.7± 2.2low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Veronica BurtonGS1.0± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
GS
41.6%
FG%
44.9
41.3%
34.1%
3PT %
33.0
▶36.1%
79.5
PPG
86.0
▶86.4
17.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.1
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1