May 30, 25sim 94
985
16(H)63
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+11MIN
MIN
7-0
8675
GS
2-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx went into Golden State Valkyries and beat them, 86–75.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
19.6Game score
24
Pts
11
Reb
4
Ast
GS · top performer
Veronica Burton
G · #22
16.0Game score
21
Pts
5
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN7-0
8675
GS2-4
MIN7-0GS2-4
MIN
7-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +13 | |
| 26 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | |
| 37 | 24 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +9 | |
| 33 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 26 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 13 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +13 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 15 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +21 | |
| Team | 86 | 36 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 12 | ||
| DNP: D. Miller, A. Kosu, M. Badiane | ||||||||
GS
2-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 28 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +9 | |
| 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | |
| 15 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 24 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +8 | |
| 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -20 | |
| 15 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -12 | |
| 17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -22 | |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -17 | |
| 19 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
| Team | 75 | 37 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 14 | ||
| DNP: K. Linskens | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
37
22
Ast
15
Playoff series
MIN wins series 2-0
Sep 14GS72@MIN101
GS72@MIN101Sep 18MIN75@GS74
MIN75@GS74Headlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 28pp · 3rd Quarter · 2:14
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 37 min
24 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST
GSV. Burton
GGame leader · 24 min
21 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
MIN beat GS 86-75. N. Collier led with 24 PTS, 11 REB, 4 AST. MIN outscored the other side 17-8 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 28 REB · 16 AST
GS 64
Bench(4)
14 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST
GS 9
GSstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
51 PTS · 22 REB · 11 AST
GS 43
Bench(6)
24 PTS · 15 REB · 4 AST
GS 10
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS3rd Quarter · 8:33 · 51-52
+15pp→ 49% WP
Kayla McBride · shooting foul
MIN3rd Quarter · 8:42 · 53-52
+13pp→ 64% WP
Courtney Williams · makes 9-foot two point shot
MIN3rd Quarter · 2:14 · 67-58
+28pp→ 86% WP
Lynx Coach's Challenge ·
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 27 | 24 | 17 | 18 | 86 |
| GS | 23 | 29 | 8 | 15 | 75 |
Period scoring
MIN won 3 · GS won 1
27
23
Q1
Collier 10
Thornton 7
24
29
Q2
McBride 10
Martin 14
17
8
Q3
Williams 3
Burton 8
18
15
Q4
Collier 8
Burton 9
MIN
GS
Shooting comparison
MIN
GS
45%
30-66
FG
37%
24-65
42%
11-26
3PT
26%
9-34
75%
15-20
FT
82%
18-22
Play-by-play · 384 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 86·GS 75
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 86·GS 75
- Q4·18.1
Veronica Burton bad pass (Courtney Williams steals)
·
MIN 86·GS 75
- Q4·29.2
Kate Martin defensive rebound
MIN 86·GS 75
- Q4·31.1
Courtney Williams misses driving layup
MIN 86·GS 75
- Q4·49.0
Kate Martin traveling
MIN 86·GS 75
- Q4·1:02
Napheesa Collier lost ball turnover (Temi Fagbenle steals)
·
MIN 86·GS 75
- Q4·1:26
Kayla Thornton lost ball turnover (Napheesa Collier steals)
·
MIN 86·GS 75
- Q4·1:28
Natisha Hiedeman enters the game for Alanna Smith
·
MIN 86·GS 75
- Q4·1:28
Napheesa Collier vs. Kayla Thornton (Bridget Carleton gains possession)
· ·
MIN 86·GS 75
- Q4·1:34
Alanna Smith bad pass (Kayla Thornton steals)
·
MIN 86·GS 75
- Q4·1:35
Alanna Smith offensive rebound
MIN 86·GS 75
- Q4·1:38
Napheesa Collier misses driving layup
MIN 86·GS 75
- Q4·1:56
Veronica Burton makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Temi Fagbenle assists)
·
MIN 86·GS 75
- Q4·2:12
Kate Martin defensive rebound
MIN 86·GS 73
- Q4·2:15
Alanna Smith misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIN 86·GS 73
- Q4·2:34
Kayla Thornton makes two point shot
MIN 86·GS 73
- Q4·2:36
Kayla Thornton offensive rebound
MIN 86·GS 71
- Q4·2:39
Janelle Salaun misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 86·GS 71
- Q4·3:04
Napheesa Collier makes 3-foot layup (Courtney Williams assists)
·
MIN 86·GS 71
- Q4·3:27
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 84·GS 71
- Q4·3:29
Veronica Burton makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIN 84·GS 71
- Q4·3:35
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
MIN 84·GS 68
- Q4·3:36
Napheesa Collier blocks Veronica Burton 's 6-foot driving layup
·
MIN 84·GS 68
- Q4·3:44
Janelle Salaun defensive rebound
MIN 84·GS 68
- Q4·3:46
Courtney Williams misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 84·GS 68
- Q4·4:05
Lynx defensive team rebound
MIN 84·GS 68
- Q4·4:09
Kayla Thornton misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIN 84·GS 68
- Q4·4:16
Janelle Salaun offensive rebound
MIN 84·GS 68
- Q4·4:17
Kayla Thornton misses 9-foot two point shot
MIN 84·GS 68
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
GS
Home
30-66
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
24-65
45
FG %
37
11-26
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-34
15-20
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-22
22
Assists
15
12
Turnovers
14
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
Rebounds
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
GS
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.3%
35.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶36.1%
89.7
PPG
◀
86.0
86.4
21.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.1
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1