Jun 7, 25sim 96
693
3(H)79
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+22DAL
DAL
1-4
10987
CON
0-5
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
allas Wings went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 109–87. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DAL · top performer
Paige Bueckers
G · #5
22.1Game score
21
Pts
5
Reb
7
Ast
CON · top performer
Tina Charles
C · #31
23.7Game score
27
Pts
6
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Dallas Wings at Connecticut Sun · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
DAL1-4
10987
CON0-5
DAL1-4CON0-5
DAL
1-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 20 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 17 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | |
| 33 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +16 | |
| 16 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |
| 35 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +16 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 23 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +24 | |
| 16 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +20 | |
| 8 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +10 | |
| 16 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +9 | |
| 9 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +13 | |
| Team | 109 | 35 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 12 | ||
CON
0-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 29 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -17 | |
| 25 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -20 | |
| 28 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -19 | |
| 33 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -15 | |
| 22 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 17 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -11 | |
| 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4 | |
| 19 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -24 | |
| Team | 87 | 27 | 20 | 10 | 0 | 16 | ||
| DNP: L. Allen | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
56
FG %
45
26
Ast
20
Season series
DAL wins series 2-1
May 27DAL109@CON87today
DAL109@CON87todayJun 20DAL86@CON83
DAL86@CON83Aug 28CON101@DAL95
CON101@DAL95Headlines · top performers
Game flowDAL ↔ CON
Biggest swing: 25pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:50
DALP. Bueckers
GGame leader · 35 min
21 PTS · 5 REB · 7 AST
CONT. Charles
CGame leader · 29 min
27 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
DAL beat CON 109-87. P. Bueckers led with 21 PTS, 5 REB, 7 AST. DAL outscored the other side 33-18 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CON vs DAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitDALstarters 61% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 21 REB · 18 AST
GS 63
Bench(7)
43 PTS · 14 REB · 8 AST
GS 36
CONstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 18 REB · 16 AST
GS 50
Bench(6)
21 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST
GS 11
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCON1st Quarter · 3:44 · 15-17
+7pp→ 47% WP
Marina Mabrey · makes 25-foot three pointer
CON2nd Quarter · 9:00 · 26-24
+10pp→ 48% WP
Paige Bueckers · bad pass (Jacy Sheldon steals)
DAL2nd Quarter · 5:50 · 39-27
+25pp→ 89% WP
Marina Mabrey · bad pass (Teaira McCowan steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 23 | 33 | 32 | 21 | 109 |
| CON | 24 | 18 | 32 | 13 | 87 |
Period scoring
DAL won 2 · CON won 1
23
24
Q1
Bueckers 7
Charles 7
33
18
Q2
James 9
Rivers 5
32
32
Q3
Ogunbowale 15
Charles 14
21
13
Q4
Quinerly 5
Sheldon 4
DAL
CON
Shooting comparison
DAL
CON
56%
37-66
FG
45%
27-60
50%
10-20
3PT
33%
8-24
86%
25-29
FT
69%
25-36
Play-by-play · 412 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 109·CON 87
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 109·CON 87
- Q4·10.0
JJ Quinerly out of bounds bad pass turnover
DAL 109·CON 87
- Q4·32.1
Kariata Diaby makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 109·CON 87
- Q4·32.1
Kariata Diaby makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 109·CON 86
- Q4·32.1
Luisa Geiselsoder loose ball foul
DAL 109·CON 85
- Q4·32.1
Sun offensive team rebound
DAL 109·CON 85
- Q4·33.0
Aneesah Morrow misses free throw 2 of 2
DAL 109·CON 85
- Q4·33.0
Sun offensive team rebound
DAL 109·CON 85
- Q4·33.0
Aneesah Morrow misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 109·CON 85
- Q4·33.0
Kaila Charles personal foul
·
DAL 109·CON 85
- Q4·36.1
Rayah Marshall defensive rebound
DAL 109·CON 85
- Q4·39.0
Aziaha James misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 109·CON 85
- Q4·53.1
Saniya Rivers makes free throw 1 of 1
DAL 109·CON 85
- Q4·53.1
Aziaha James shooting foul
DAL 109·CON 84
- Q4·53.1
Saniya Rivers makes 3-foot two point shot
DAL 109·CON 84
- Q4·1:15
Rayah Marshall enters the game for Bria Hartley
·
DAL 109·CON 82
- Q4·1:15
Sun Full timeout
DAL 109·CON 82
- Q4·1:16
Luisa Geiselsoder makes 15-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 109·CON 82
- Q4·1:30
Jacy Sheldon makes driving layup
DAL 107·CON 82
- Q4·1:38
JJ Quinerly makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot (Aziaha James assists)
·
DAL 107·CON 80
- Q4·1:55
Kaila Charles defensive rebound
·
DAL 105·CON 80
- Q4·1:58
Saniya Rivers misses driving layup
DAL 105·CON 80
- Q4·2:20
Kaila Charles makes 1-foot two point shot (Aziaha James assists)
· ·
DAL 105·CON 80
- Q4·2:37
Kariata Diaby makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 103·CON 80
- Q4·2:37
Sun offensive team rebound
DAL 103·CON 79
- Q4·2:37
Kariata Diaby misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 103·CON 79
- Q4·2:37
Luisa Geiselsoder personal foul
DAL 103·CON 79
- Q4·2:48
Maddy Siegrist makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 103·CON 79
- Q4·2:48
Wings offensive team rebound
DAL 102·CON 79
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
CON
Home
37-66
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
27-60
56
FG %
45
10-20
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-24
25-29
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
25-36
26
Assists
20
12
Turnovers
16
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 12 players in cohort- Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Brittney GrinerCON13.6± 5.3low
- Arike OgunbowaleDAL13.6± 12.3low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Brittney GrinerCON5.2± 1.1low
Assists
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
Blocks
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Azzi FuddDAL0.8± 1.5low
Steals
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Aaliyah EdwardsCON1.0± 1.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
DAL
league avg
CON
46.6%
FG%
◀
44.7
40.7%
37.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
26.0%
88.9
PPG
◀
85.4
74.7
23.4
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.9
10.3
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.8