Jun 12, 25sim 95
884
14(H)94
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+14IND
NY
9-1
88102
IND
5-5
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever held off New York Liberty, 102–88.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Sabrina Ionescu
G · #20
26.0Game score
34
Pts
2
Reb
4
Ast
IND · top performer
Caitlin Clark
G · #22
24.5Game score
32
Pts
8
Reb
9
Ast
WNBA · New York Liberty at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
NY9-1
88102
IND5-5
NY9-1IND5-5
NY
9-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 38 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -6 | |
DRB%.24980 USG%.28360 ORB%.05160 | ||||||||
| 31 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +3 | |
| 31 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -19 | |
| 25 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -11 | |
| 38 | 34 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -10 | |
| 8 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -14 | |
| 12 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -13 | |
| Team | 88 | 34 | 17 | 10 | 4 | 11 | ||
| DNP: J. Jones, M. Davis | ||||||||
IND
5-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 14 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -15 | |
| 30 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +10 | |
| 34 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +21 | |
| 34 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +6 | |
| 31 | 32 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 7 | +5 | |
| 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 20 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 25 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +31 | |
| Team | 102 | 38 | 25 | 5 | 6 | 12 | ||
| DNP: D. Bonner | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
48
17
Ast
25
Season series
NY wins series 3-1
May 24NY90@IND88
NY90@IND88Jun 14NY88@IND102today
NY88@IND102todayJul 16IND77@NY98
IND77@NY98Jul 23IND84@NY98
IND84@NY98Headlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ IND
Biggest swing: 12pp · 3rd Quarter · 5:51
NYS. Ionescu
GGame leader · 38 min30+ point game
34 PTS · 2 REB · 4 AST
INDC. Clark
GGame leader · 31 min30+ point game
32 PTS · 8 REB · 9 AST
How it ended
IND beat NY 102-88. C. Clark paced them with 32 PTS, 8 REB, 9 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
76 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST
GS 59
Bench(5)
12 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST
GS 9
INDstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
82 PTS · 29 REB · 18 AST
GS 60
Bench(5)
20 PTS · 9 REB · 7 AST
GS 22
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND3rd Quarter · 5:51 · 59-60
+12pp→ 50% WP
Sabrina Ionescu · misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot
IND4th Quarter · 7:56 · 76-83
+10pp→ 80% WP
Sydney Colson · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Aliyah Boston assists)
IND4th Quarter · 7:18 · 76-83
+11pp→ 83% WP
Marine Johannes · bad pass (Kelsey Mitchell steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 26 | 24 | 21 | 17 | 88 |
| IND | 24 | 29 | 27 | 22 | 102 |
Period scoring
NY won 1 · IND won 3
26
24
Q1
Ionescu 7
Clark 14
24
29
Q2
Ionescu 10
Clark 11
21
27
Q3
Ionescu 11
Clark 7
17
22
Q4
Stewart 8
Mitchell 10
NY
IND
Shooting comparison
NY
IND
42%
30-71
FG
48%
37-77
21%
6-29
3PT
49%
17-35
73%
22-30
FT
69%
11-16
Play-by-play · 422 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 88·IND 102
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 88·IND 102
- Q4·3.1
shot clock turnover
NY 88·IND 102
- Q4·27.1
Isabelle Harrison enters the game for Breanna Stewart
·
NY 88·IND 102
- Q4·27.1
Jaylyn Sherrod enters the game for Sabrina Ionescu
·
NY 88·IND 102
- Q4·27.1
Sydney Colson enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
NY 88·IND 102
- Q4·27.1
Damiris Dantas enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
NY 88·IND 102
- Q4·27.1
Brianna Turner enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
NY 88·IND 102
- Q4·27.1
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
NY 88·IND 102
- Q4·27.1
shot clock turnover
NY 88·IND 102
- Q4·52.1
Sabrina Ionescu makes 16-foot pullup jump shot
NY 88·IND 102
- Q4·1:06
Sophie Cunningham makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aliyah Boston assists)
·
NY 86·IND 102
- Q4·1:20
Caitlin Clark defensive rebound
NY 86·IND 99
- Q4·1:23
Nyara Sabally misses 25-foot three point jumper
NY 86·IND 99
- Q4·1:31
Nyara Sabally defensive rebound
NY 86·IND 99
- Q4·1:35
Caitlin Clark misses 26-foot three point jumper
NY 86·IND 99
- Q4·1:52
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 86·IND 99
- Q4·1:52
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 85·IND 99
- Q4·1:52
Sophie Cunningham loose ball foul
NY 84·IND 99
- Q4·1:52
Liberty offensive team rebound
NY 84·IND 99
- Q4·1:54
Sabrina Ionescu misses 25-foot three point jumper
NY 84·IND 99
- Q4·2:10
Liberty Full timeout
NY 84·IND 99
- Q4·2:12
Kelsey Mitchell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Caitlin Clark assists)
·
NY 84·IND 99
- Q4·2:27
Natasha Cloud bad pass (Caitlin Clark steals)
·
NY 84·IND 96
- Q4·2:36
Liberty offensive team rebound
NY 84·IND 96
- Q4·2:37
Breanna Stewart misses free throw 2 of 2
NY 84·IND 96
+0.8pp
- Q4·2:37
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 84·IND 96
- Q4·2:37
Lexie Hull personal foul
NY 83·IND 96
−0.5pp
- Q4·2:45
Lexie Hull makes 2-foot layup (Caitlin Clark assists)
·
NY 83·IND 96
+0.5pp
- Q4·2:56
Aliyah Boston defensive rebound
NY 83·IND 94
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
IND
Home
30-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
37-77
42
FG %
48
6-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
17-35
22-30
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-16
17
Assists
25
11
Turnovers
12
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 15 players in cohort
Breanna StewartNY · FDRB%.24980
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Pauline AstierNY3.6± 2.5low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
Steals
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
IND
45.9%
FG%
44.9
45.4%
35.8%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.1%
88.0
PPG
86.0
▶92.9
22.1
Assists / G
18.0
22.3
14.3
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.4