Jun 14, 25sim 92
988
5(H)102
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+10ATL
ATL
21-11
8575
SEA
16-17
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream went into Seattle Storm and beat them, 85–75.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Rhyne Howard
G · #10
19.0Game score
25
Pts
1
Reb
7
Ast
SEA · top performer
Nneka Ogwumike
F · #3
24.6Game score
29
Pts
9
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Seattle Storm · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL21-11
8575
SEA16-17
ATL21-11SEA16-17
ATL
21-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 21 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | |
| 35 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 39 | 22 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +4 | |
| 34 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +13 | |
| 38 | 25 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +13 | |
| 18 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +14 | |
| Team | 85 | 42 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 14 | ||
| DNP: T. Thierry, J. Canada | ||||||||
SEA
16-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 36 | 29 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 32 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -6 | |
| 31 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -3 | |
| 31 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 33 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
USG%.28780 ORB%.03740 DRB%.12540 | ||||||||
| 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -25 | |
| 15 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -17 | |
| 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 75 | 26 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 6 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, L. Brown | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
42
19
Ast
20
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 31ATL94@SEA87
ATL94@SEA87Jul 3SEA80@ATL79
SEA80@ATL79Aug 14ATL85@SEA75today
ATL85@SEA75todayAug 16SEA80@ATL78
SEA80@ATL78Headlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ SEA
Biggest swing: 10pp · 3rd Quarter · 2:30
ATLR. Howard
GGame leader · 38 min
25 PTS · 1 REB · 7 AST
SEAN. Ogwumike
FGame leader · 36 min
29 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
ATL beat SEA 85-75. R. Howard paced them with 25 PTS, 1 REB, 7 AST. ATL outscored the other side 27-15 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SEA vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 31 REB · 16 AST
GS 56
Bench(4)
13 PTS · 11 REB · 3 AST
GS 12
SEAstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
62 PTS · 22 REB · 18 AST
GS 51
Bench(3)
13 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST
GS 4
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSEA2nd Quarter · 1:06 · 41-37
+9pp→ 36% WP
Nneka Ogwumike · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Skylar Diggins assists)
ATL3rd Quarter · 2:30 · 54-49
+10pp→ 71% WP
Allisha Gray · makes 25-foot three point shot (Rhyne Howard assists)
ATL3rd Quarter · 1:24 · 59-52
+9pp→ 80% WP
Allisha Gray · makes 28-foot three point jumper (Nia Coffey assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 24 | 17 | 27 | 17 | 85 |
| SEA | 18 | 21 | 15 | 21 | 75 |
Period scoring
ATL won 2 · SEA won 2
24
18
Q1
Griner 6
Ogwumike 5
17
21
Q2
Gray 6
Ogwumike 11
27
15
Q3
Howard 13
Ogwumike 5
17
21
Q4
Howard 5
Ogwumike 8
ATL
SEA
Shooting comparison
ATL
SEA
49%
31-63
FG
42%
31-74
46%
12-26
3PT
35%
6-17
73%
11-15
FT
54%
7-13
Play-by-play · 369 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 85·SEA 75
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 85·SEA 75
- Q4·15.4
Maya Caldwell defensive rebound
ATL 85·SEA 75
- Q4·20.1
Nneka Ogwumike misses 23-foot three point jumper
ATL 85·SEA 75
- Q4·24.4
Storm Full timeout
ATL 85·SEA 75
- Q4·24.4
Naz Hillmon makes 3-foot layup (Rhyne Howard assists)
·
ATL 85·SEA 75
−0.5pp
- Q4·45.2
Erica Wheeler makes 24-foot three point jumper (Gabby Williams assists)
·
ATL 83·SEA 75
+0.5pp
- Q4·46.6
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
ATL 83·SEA 72
- Q4·46.6
Storm Full timeout
ATL 83·SEA 72
- Q4·46.6
Brionna Jones makes layup (Rhyne Howard assists)
·
ATL 83·SEA 72
- Q4·59.7
Naz Hillmon defensive rebound
ATL 81·SEA 72
- Q4·1:02
Gabby Williams misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 81·SEA 72
−2pp
- Q4·1:02
Brionna Jones enters the game for Brittney Griner
·
ATL 81·SEA 72
- Q4·1:02
Gabby Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 81·SEA 72
- Q4·1:02
Rhyne Howard shooting foul
ATL 81·SEA 71
+1pp
- Q4·1:11
Ezi Magbegor defensive rebound
ATL 81·SEA 71
- Q4·1:16
Rhyne Howard misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 81·SEA 71
- Q4·1:27
Allisha Gray offensive rebound
ATL 81·SEA 71
- Q4·1:30
Allisha Gray misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 81·SEA 71
- Q4·1:50
Brittney Griner defensive rebound
ATL 81·SEA 71
- Q4·1:54
Erica Wheeler misses 24-foot three point jumper
ATL 81·SEA 71
−0.5pp
- Q4·2:01
Rhyne Howard bad pass (Erica Wheeler steals)
·
ATL 81·SEA 71
- Q4·2:05
Dream offensive team rebound
ATL 81·SEA 71
- Q4·2:05
Ezi Magbegor blocks Rhyne Howard 's 3-foot driving layup
·
ATL 81·SEA 71
- Q4·2:23
Nneka Ogwumike makes layup (Ezi Magbegor assists)
·
ATL 81·SEA 71
- Q4·2:37
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 81·SEA 69
- Q4·2:37
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 80·SEA 69
- Q4·2:37
Brittney Sykes shooting foul
ATL 79·SEA 69
- Q4·2:43
Brittney Griner defensive rebound
ATL 79·SEA 69
- Q4·2:46
Gabby Williams misses 23-foot three point jumper
ATL 79·SEA 69
−0.7pp
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
31-63
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-74
49
FG %
42
12-26
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-17
11-15
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
7-13
19
Assists
20
14
Turnovers
6
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28780
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Rhyne HowardATL13.8± 9.6low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Madina OkotATL5.0± 5.3low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
- Stefanie DolsonSEA0.9± 1.3low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Angel ReeseATL1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
SEA
43.5%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.6%
31.7%
3PT %
33.0
▶34.1%
83.5
PPG
◀
86.0
79.5
19.5
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.0
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6