Jun 14, 25sim 95
988
5(H)102
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+10SEA
MIN
9-1
8494
SEA
6-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
eattle Storm held off Minnesota Lynx, 94–84.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
21.2Game score
25
Pts
9
Reb
5
Ast
SEA · top performer
Nneka Ogwumike
F · #3
20.6Game score
21
Pts
10
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Seattle Storm · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN9-1
8494
SEA6-4
MIN9-1SEA6-4
MIN
9-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -15 | |
| 37 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -16 | |
| 38 | 25 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -9 | |
| 37 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | |
| 20 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -11 | |
| 22 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| Team | 84 | 26 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 12 | ||
| DNP: M. Kliundikova, D. Miller, A. Kosu | ||||||||
SEA
6-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +16 | |
| 37 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +17 | |
| 31 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +11 | |
| 35 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +16 | |
| 31 | 20 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +4 | |
| 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | |
| Team | 94 | 34 | 30 | 9 | 3 | 10 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, L. Yueru | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
57
25
Ast
30
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 28SEA77@MIN82
SEA77@MIN82Jun 12MIN84@SEA94today
MIN84@SEA94todayAug 6MIN91@SEA87
MIN91@SEA87Aug 29SEA93@MIN79
SEA93@MIN79Headlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ SEA
Biggest swing: 27pp · 4th Quarter · 1:49
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 38 min
25 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST
SEAN. Ogwumike
FGame leader · 32 min
21 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
SEA beat MIN 94-84. N. Ogwumike led with 21 PTS, 10 REB, 4 AST. Ezi Magbegor's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SEA vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 23 REB · 19 AST
GS 57
Bench(3)
12 PTS · 3 REB · 6 AST
GS 11
SEAstarters 89% of ptsStarters(5)
84 PTS · 29 REB · 27 AST
GS 81
Bench(4)
10 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
GS 8
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSEA4th Quarter · 2:47 · 79-83
+26pp→ 81% WP
Skylar Diggins · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Erica Wheeler assists)
SEA4th Quarter · 1:49 · 79-85
+27pp→ 94% WP
Ezi Magbegor · makes layup (Skylar Diggins assists)
SEA4th Quarter · 46.1 · 84-88
+19pp→ 83% WP
Erica Wheeler · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nneka Ogwumike assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 27 | 22 | 16 | 19 | 84 |
| SEA | 32 | 16 | 20 | 26 | 94 |
Period scoring
MIN won 1 · SEA won 3
27
32
Q1
Collier 12
Wheeler 8
22
16
Q2
McBride 6
Diggins 4
16
20
Q3
Carleton 6
Ogwumike 10
19
26
Q4
McBride 7
Magbegor 8
MIN
SEA
Shooting comparison
MIN
SEA
48%
31-64
FG
57%
39-69
46%
12-26
3PT
39%
7-18
91%
10-11
FT
60%
9-15
Play-by-play · 336 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 84·SEA 94
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 84·SEA 94
- Q4·1.1
Nneka Ogwumike offensive rebound
MIN 84·SEA 94
- Q4·5.1
Erica Wheeler misses free throw 1 of 1
MIN 84·SEA 94
- Q4·5.1
Skylar Diggins makes technical free throw
MIN 84·SEA 94
- Q4·5.1
Kayla McBride technical foul
MIN 84·SEA 93
- Q4·5.1
Kayla McBride shooting foul
MIN 84·SEA 93
- Q4·5.1
Erica Wheeler makes two point shot (Skylar Diggins assists)
·
MIN 84·SEA 93
- Q4·8.1
Skylar Diggins defensive rebound
MIN 84·SEA 91
- Q4·13.1
Napheesa Collier misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 84·SEA 91
+1pp
- Q4·22.1
Ezi Magbegor makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 84·SEA 91
- Q4·22.1
Storm offensive team rebound
MIN 84·SEA 90
−0.6pp
- Q4·22.1
Ezi Magbegor misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 84·SEA 90
- Q4·22.1
Natisha Hiedeman personal foul
MIN 84·SEA 90
+0.9pp
- Q4·22.1
Bridget Carleton bad pass (Gabby Williams steals)
· ·
MIN 84·SEA 90
+2pp
- Q4·25.0
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 84·SEA 90
- Q4·25.0
Erica Wheeler makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 84·SEA 90
−1pp
- Q4·25.0
Erica Wheeler makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 84·SEA 89
+0.6pp
- Q4·25.0
Natisha Hiedeman personal foul
MIN 84·SEA 88
+5pp
- Q4·27.0
Gabby Williams defensive rebound
·
MIN 84·SEA 88
+2pp
- Q4·30.1
Alanna Smith misses layupBIG MOMENT
MIN 84·SEA 88
+7pp
- Q4·46.0
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 84·SEA 88
- Q4·46.1
Erica Wheeler makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nneka Ogwumike assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 84·SEA 88
+19pp
- Q4·1:07
Storm Full timeout
MIN 84·SEA 85
- Q4·1:07
Kayla McBride makes 24-foot three point jumper (Napheesa Collier assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 84·SEA 85
−16pp
- Q4·1:10
Napheesa Collier offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 81·SEA 85
−6pp
- Q4·1:11
Ezi Magbegor blocks Alanna Smith 's 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
·
MIN 81·SEA 85
+6pp
- Q4·1:21
Lynx timeout
MIN 81·SEA 85
- Q4·1:21
Kayla McBride defensive rebound
MIN 81·SEA 85
−2pp
- Q4·1:24
Skylar Diggins misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIN 81·SEA 85
−6pp
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
31-64
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
39-69
48
FG %
57
12-26
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-18
10-11
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
9-15
25
Assists
30
12
Turnovers
10
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN14.3± 9.2low
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
- Olivia MilesMIN1.2± 1.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
SEA
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.6%
35.3%
3PT %
◀
33.0
34.1%
89.7
PPG
◀
86.0
79.5
21.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.0
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6