Jun 2, 25sim 93
886
129689(H)75
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8NY
NY
8-0
8678
WSH
3-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ew York Liberty went into Washington Mystics and beat them, 86–78.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Breanna Stewart
F · #30
19.3Game score
26
Pts
11
Reb
1
Ast
WSH · top performer
Jade Melbourne
G · #5
14.8Game score
15
Pts
2
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · New York Liberty at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
NY8-0
8678
WSH3-6
NY8-0WSH3-6
NY
8-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 26 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +6 | |
DRB%.24980 USG%.28360 ORB%.05160 | ||||||||
| 31 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +13 | |
| 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 30 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +10 | |
| 35 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +5 | |
| 15 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 13 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +14 | |
| 20 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| Team | 86 | 36 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 13 | ||
| DNP: N. Sabally, J. Sherrod, M. Davis | ||||||||
WSH
3-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 18 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 20 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | |
| 32 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | |
USG%.28780 ORB%.03740 DRB%.12540 | ||||||||
| 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -10 | |
| 35 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | |
| 14 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 23 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 27 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| Team | 78 | 39 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 14 | ||
| DNP: S. Kone, G. Amoore | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
43
15
Ast
20
Season series
NY wins series 4-0
May 30NY85@WSH63
NY85@WSH63Jun 5NY86@WSH78today
NY86@WSH78todayAug 28WSH63@NY89
WSH63@NY89Sep 9WSH66@NY75
WSH66@NY75Headlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ WSH
Biggest swing: 9pp · 4th Quarter · 3:24
NYB. Stewart
FGame leader · 35 min
26 PTS · 11 REB · 1 AST
WSHJ. Melbourne
GGame leader · 27 min
15 PTS · 2 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
NY beat WSH 86-78. B. Stewart paced them with 26 PTS, 11 REB, 1 AST. NY outscored the other side 32-12 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
55 PTS · 23 REB · 14 AST
GS 37
Bench(4)
31 PTS · 13 REB · 1 AST
GS 29
WSHstarters 60% of ptsStarters(5)
47 PTS · 18 REB · 10 AST
GS 24
Bench(5)
31 PTS · 21 REB · 10 AST
GS 26
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY4th Quarter · 3:24 · 78-71
+9pp→ 93% WP
Sabrina Ionescu · blocks Shakira Austin 's 5-foot layup
NY4th Quarter · 2:59 · 81-71
+6pp→ 98% WP
Isabelle Harrison · makes free throw 1 of 1
NY4th Quarter · 35.1 · 81-77
+7pp→ 97% WP
Shakira Austin · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 17 | 32 | 24 | 13 | 86 |
| WSH | 22 | 12 | 23 | 21 | 78 |
Period scoring
NY won 2 · WSH won 2
17
22
Q1
Ionescu 6
Iriafen 11
32
12
Q2
Stewart 9
Melbourne 5
24
23
Q3
Burke 6
Dolson 6
13
21
Q4
Stewart 6
Austin 6
NY
WSH
Shooting comparison
NY
WSH
43%
26-61
FG
43%
29-67
36%
10-28
3PT
26%
5-19
80%
24-30
FT
63%
15-24
Play-by-play · 428 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 86·WSH 78
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 86·WSH 78
- Q4·0.0
Mystics offensive team rebound
NY 86·WSH 78
- Q4·0.1
Kiki Iriafen misses 16-foot two point shot
NY 86·WSH 78
- Q4·5.1
Mystics timeout
NY 86·WSH 78
- Q4·5.1
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 86·WSH 78
- Q4·5.1
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 85·WSH 78
- Q4·5.1
Shakira Austin personal foul
NY 84·WSH 78
- Q4·10.0
Isabelle Harrison vs. Shakira Austin (Natasha Cloud gains possession)
· ·
NY 84·WSH 78
- Q4·13.0
Isabelle Harrison defensive rebound
NY 84·WSH 78
- Q4·16.1
Sonia Citron misses free throw 2 of 2
NY 84·WSH 78
−3pp
- Q4·16.1
Sonia Citron makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 84·WSH 78
- Q4·16.1
Leonie Fiebich personal foul
NY 84·WSH 77
+2pp
- Q4·21.1
Shakira Austin defensive rebound
NY 84·WSH 77
- Q4·23.1
Breanna Stewart misses free throw 2 of 2
NY 84·WSH 77
+1pp
- Q4·23.1
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 84·WSH 77
- Q4·23.1
Sonia Citron personal foul
NY 83·WSH 77
−1pp
- Q4·27.1
Natasha Cloud defensive rebound
NY 83·WSH 77
−0.8pp
- Q4·31.1
Shakira Austin misses 26-foot three point jumper
NY 83·WSH 77
−2pp
- Q4·35.1
Mystics Full timeout
NY 83·WSH 77
- Q4·35.1
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 83·WSH 77
+2pp
- Q4·35.1
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 82·WSH 77
−0.7pp
- Q4·35.1
Shakira Austin shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NY 81·WSH 77
−7pp
- Q4·58.1
Shakira Austin makes layup (Brittney Sykes assists)
·
NY 81·WSH 77
+3pp
- Q4·1:14
Sabrina Ionescu out of bounds lost ball turnover
NY 81·WSH 75
+3pp
- Q4·1:16
Brittney Sykes lost ball turnover (Sabrina Ionescu steals)
·
NY 81·WSH 75
−4pp
- Q4·1:28
Mystics Full timeout
NY 81·WSH 75
- Q4·1:28
shot clock turnover
NY 81·WSH 75
+3pp
- Q4·1:52
Liberty Full timeout
NY 81·WSH 75
- Q4·1:53
Kiki Iriafen makes layup (Shakira Austin assists)
·
NY 81·WSH 75
+2pp
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
26-61
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-67
43
FG %
43
10-28
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-19
24-30
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-24
15
Assists
20
13
Turnovers
14
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 15 players in cohort- Breanna StewartNY · FDRB%.24980
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28780
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
Assists
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Pauline AstierNY3.6± 2.5low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
Steals
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
WSH
45.9%
FG%
◀
44.9
44.8%
35.8%
3PT %
◀
33.0
28.8%
88.0
PPG
◀
86.0
82.8
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.5
14.3
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.7