Jun 14, 25sim 92
988
5(H)102
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+4WSH
MIN
12-2
6468
WSH
7-8
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ashington Mystics held off Minnesota Lynx, 68–64. Decided by 4.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Alanna Smith
F · #8
22.6Game score
26
Pts
5
Reb
2
Ast
WSH · top performer
Shakira Austin
C · #0
11.1Game score
19
Pts
8
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN12-2
6468
WSH7-8
MIN12-2WSH7-8
MIN
12-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 37 | 12 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 25 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +7 | |
| 30 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -6 | |
| 37 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 28 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | +1 | |
| 14 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| Team | 64 | 39 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 19 | ||
| DNP: N. Collier, A. Pili, A. Kosu | ||||||||
WSH
7-8
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +6 | |
| 28 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +13 | |
| 35 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +13 | |
| 37 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +8 | |
| 36 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -4 | |
| 11 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 14 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| Team | 68 | 40 | 17 | 10 | 1 | 14 | ||
| DNP: S. Kone, B. Sykes, G. Amoore | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
38
FG %
37
15
Ast
17
Season series
MIN wins series 2-1
Jun 25MIN64@WSH68today
MIN64@WSH68todayJul 4WSH75@MIN92
WSH75@MIN92Aug 8WSH76@MIN80
WSH76@MIN80Headlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ WSH
Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 15.0
MINA. Smith
FGame leader · 30 min
26 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST
WSHS. Austin
CGame leader · 28 min
19 PTS · 8 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
WSH beat MIN 68-64. S. Austin led with 19 PTS, 8 REB, 3 AST. Courtney Williams's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 33 REB · 14 AST
GS 40
Bench(4)
10 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
GS 5
WSHstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
56 PTS · 27 REB · 15 AST
GS 34
Bench(4)
12 PTS · 13 REB · 2 AST
GS 11
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWSH4th Quarter · 9:04 · 55-57
+14pp→ 52% WP
Jade Melbourne · makes 28-foot three point jumper (Shakira Austin assists)
MIN4th Quarter · 35.0 · 64-62
+15pp→ 80% WP
Jade Melbourne · misses 24-foot three point jumper
WSH4th Quarter · 15.0 · 64-66
+19pp→ 80% WP
Courtney Williams · misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 22 | 15 | 18 | 9 | 64 |
| WSH | 20 | 19 | 15 | 14 | 68 |
Period scoring
MIN won 2 · WSH won 2
22
20
Q1
Smith 13
Austin 8
15
19
Q2
Smith 5
Citron 7
18
15
Q3
Smith 7
Sutton 5
9
14
Q4
Kliundikova 3
Melbourne 3
MIN
WSH
Shooting comparison
MIN
WSH
38%
22-58
FG
37%
27-73
17%
3-18
3PT
38%
5-13
68%
17-25
FT
75%
9-12
Play-by-play · 405 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 64·WSH 68
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 64·WSH 68
+1pp
- Q4·2.0
Lynx offensive team rebound
MIN 64·WSH 68
−0.5pp
- Q4·2.0
Kayla McBride misses 22-foot three point jumper
MIN 64·WSH 68
+3pp
- Q4·6.1
Lynx timeout
MIN 64·WSH 68
- Q4·6.1
Sonia Citron makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 64·WSH 68
−2pp
- Q4·6.1
Kiki Iriafen enters the game for Stefanie Dolson
·
MIN 64·WSH 67
- Q4·6.1
Sonia Citron makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 64·WSH 67
+0.6pp
- Q4·6.1
Bridget Carleton personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 64·WSH 66
+7pp
- Q4·7.1
Stefanie Dolson enters the game for Kiki Iriafen
·
MIN 64·WSH 66
- Q4·7.1
Mystics Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
MIN 64·WSH 66
−7pp
- Q4·7.1
Bridget Carleton personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 64·WSH 66
+10pp
- Q4·11.2
Kiki Iriafen defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 64·WSH 66
+7pp
- Q4·15.0
Courtney Williams misses 17-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 64·WSH 66
+19pp
- Q4·27.0
Sug Sutton makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 64·WSH 66
+10pp
- Q4·29.1
Courtney Williams lost ball turnover (Sug Sutton steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 64·WSH 64
+9pp
- Q4·32.0
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 64·WSH 64
- Q4·32.0
Shakira Austin makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 64·WSH 64
+10pp
- Q4·32.0
Shakira Austin offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 64·WSH 62
+13pp
- Q4·35.0
Jade Melbourne misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIN 64·WSH 62
−15pp
- Q4·40.1
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
MIN 64·WSH 62
+4pp
- Q4·42.1
Alanna Smith misses layupBIG MOMENT
MIN 64·WSH 62
+11pp
- Q4·1:04
Kayla McBride defensive rebound
MIN 64·WSH 62
−5pp
- Q4·1:06
Shakira Austin misses 14-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 64·WSH 62
−10pp
- Q4·1:30
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
MIN 64·WSH 62
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:33
Jessica Shepard misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 64·WSH 62
+14pp
- Q4·1:33
Lynx offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 64·WSH 62
+8pp
- Q4·1:33
Jessica Shepard misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 64·WSH 62
+3pp
- Q4·1:33
Kiki Iriafen personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 64·WSH 62
−11pp
- Q4·1:45
Bridget Carleton enters the game for Natisha Hiedeman
·
MIN 64·WSH 62
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
22-58
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
27-73
38
FG %
37
3-18
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-13
17-25
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
9-12
15
Assists
17
19
Turnovers
14
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 15 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
- Natasha HowardMIN3.7± 2.3low
Blocks
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
WSH
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
44.8%
35.3%
3PT %
◀
33.0
28.8%
89.7
PPG
◀
86.0
82.8
21.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.5
15.4
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.7