Jun 21, 25sim 95
1490
17(H)83
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+33ATL
ATL
8-3
8956
WSH
4-7
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream went into Washington Mystics and beat them, 89–56. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Allisha Gray
G · #15
32.1Game score
32
Pts
5
Reb
4
Ast
WSH · top performer
Shakira Austin
C · #0
6.5Game score
9
Pts
7
Reb
0
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL8-3
8956
WSH4-7
ATL8-3WSH4-7
ATL
8-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
| 19 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +32 | |
| 29 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +32 | |
| 21 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +14 | |
| 29 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +23 | |
| 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 26 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +23 | |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 17 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +23 | |
| Team | 89 | 41 | 24 | 8 | 2 | 6 | ||
WSH
4-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 21 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -20 | |
| 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -35 | |
| 26 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -16 | |
USG%.28780 ORB%.03740 DRB%.12540 | ||||||||
| 20 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -15 | |
| 30 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -34 | |
| 17 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -13 | |
| 17 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 19 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -8 | |
| 23 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -20 | |
| Team | 56 | 35 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 13 | ||
| DNP: G. Amoore | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
30
24
Ast
12
Season series
ATL wins series 3-1
May 16ATL90@WSH94
ATL90@WSH94Jun 15ATL89@WSH56today
ATL89@WSH56todayJun 20WSH91@ATL92
WSH91@ATL92Aug 3WSH83@ATL99
WSH83@ATL99Headlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ WSH
Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 4:21
ATLA. Gray
GGame leader · 29 min30+ point game
32 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
WSHS. Austin
CGame leader · 19 min
9 PTS · 7 REB · 0 AST
How it ended
ATL beat WSH 89-56. A. Gray paced them with 32 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST. ATL outscored the other side 23-10 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 25 REB · 11 AST
GS 51
Bench(6)
32 PTS · 16 REB · 13 AST
GS 27
WSHstarters 54% of ptsStarters(5)
30 PTS · 18 REB · 9 AST
GS 13
Bench(6)
26 PTS · 17 REB · 3 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWSH1st Quarter · 4:25 · 8-13
+7pp→ 52% WP
Jade Melbourne · makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot
ATL2nd Quarter · 6:39 · 21-17
+7pp→ 70% WP
Rhyne Howard · makes 31-foot three point jumper (Allisha Gray assists)
ATL2nd Quarter · 4:21 · 32-23
+7pp→ 83% WP
Allisha Gray · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Te-Hina Paopao assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 16 | 29 | 23 | 21 | 89 |
| WSH | 13 | 21 | 10 | 12 | 56 |
Period scoring
ATL won 4 · WSH won 0
16
13
Q1
Gray 12
Iriafen 6
29
21
Q2
Howard 12
Citron 6
23
10
Q3
Gray 8
Austin 5
21
12
Q4
Paopao 6
Sykes 5
ATL
WSH
Shooting comparison
ATL
WSH
44%
31-70
FG
30%
18-61
43%
18-42
3PT
18%
3-17
69%
9-13
FT
74%
17-23
Play-by-play · 399 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 89·WSH 56
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 89·WSH 56
- Q4·3.0
Taylor Thierry defensive rebound
ATL 89·WSH 56
- Q4·5.1
Sika Kone misses two point shot
ATL 89·WSH 56
- Q4·9.0
Sika Kone defensive rebound
ATL 89·WSH 56
- Q4·11.1
Naz Hillmon misses layup
ATL 89·WSH 56
- Q4·30.1
Aaliyah Edwards makes 12-foot jumper (Sug Sutton assists)
·
ATL 89·WSH 56
- Q4·38.2
Sug Sutton defensive rebound
ATL 89·WSH 54
- Q4·41.0
Taylor Thierry misses two point shot
ATL 89·WSH 54
- Q4·1:05
Lucy Olsen bad pass (Naz Hillmon steals)
·
ATL 89·WSH 54
- Q4·1:22
Taylor Thierry makes 22-foot three point jumper (Shatori Walker-Kimbrough assists)
·
ATL 89·WSH 54
- Q4·1:38
Lucy Olsen makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Sug Sutton assists)
·
ATL 86·WSH 54
- Q4·1:50
Naz Hillmon makes 3-foot two point shot
ATL 86·WSH 52
- Q4·2:01
Te-Hina Paopao defensive rebound
ATL 84·WSH 52
- Q4·2:05
Sug Sutton misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 84·WSH 52
- Q4·2:16
Mystics defensive team rebound
ATL 84·WSH 52
- Q4·2:17
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough misses 25-foot three point jumper
ATL 84·WSH 52
- Q4·2:33
Aaliyah Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 84·WSH 52
- Q4·2:33
Mystics offensive team rebound
ATL 84·WSH 51
- Q4·2:33
Aaliyah Edwards misses free throw 1 of 2
ATL 84·WSH 51
- Q4·2:33
Naz Hillmon shooting foul
ATL 84·WSH 51
- Q4·2:33
Naz Hillmon bad pass (Aaliyah Edwards steals)
·
ATL 84·WSH 51
- Q4·2:41
Naz Hillmon offensive rebound
ATL 84·WSH 51
- Q4·2:44
Maya Caldwell misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 84·WSH 51
- Q4·2:44
Maya Caldwell makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 84·WSH 51
- Q4·2:44
Official timeout
ATL 83·WSH 51
- Q4·2:44
Aaliyah Edwards shooting foul
ATL 83·WSH 51
- Q4·2:55
Maya Caldwell defensive rebound
ATL 83·WSH 51
- Q4·3:01
Lucy Olsen misses 26-foot three point jumper
ATL 83·WSH 51
- Q4·3:07
Lucy Olsen defensive rebound
ATL 83·WSH 51
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
31-70
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
18-61
44
FG %
30
18-42
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
3-17
9-13
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-23
24
Assists
12
6
Turnovers
13
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 15 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28780
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Rhyne HowardATL0.6± 1.2low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Angel ReeseATL1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
WSH
43.5%
FG%
44.9
▶44.8%
31.7%
3PT %
◀
33.0
28.8%
83.5
PPG
86.0
82.8
19.5
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.5
14.8
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.7