Aug 27, 25sim 95
1192
6(H)84
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+9LA
IND
17-13
91100
LA
13-15
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks held off Indiana Fever, 100–91.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Kelsey Mitchell
G · #0
28.1Game score
34
Pts
2
Reb
6
Ast
LA · top performer
Kelsey Plum
G · #10
23.5Game score
25
Pts
1
Reb
11
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Los Angeles Sparks · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND17-13
91100
LA13-15
IND17-13LA13-15
IND
17-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +3 | |
| 34 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | |
| 31 | 34 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +3 | |
| 26 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -11 | |
| 30 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -17 | |
| 21 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| Team | 91 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 4 | ||
| DNP: B. Turner, C. Clark | ||||||||
LA
13-15
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 29 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 26 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -7 | |
| 32 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +10 | |
| 34 | 25 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +15 | |
| 32 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 16 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +12 | |
| 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
| 17 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
| Team | 100 | 32 | 25 | 1 | 7 | 11 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, A. Pili | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
56
23
Ast
25
Season series
LA wins series 3-1
Jun 26LA85@IND75
LA85@IND75Jul 5LA89@IND87
LA89@IND87Aug 6IND91@LA100today
IND91@LA100todayAug 30IND76@LA75
IND76@LA75Headlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ LA
Biggest swing: 9pp · 1st Quarter · 4:49
INDK. Mitchell
GGame leader · 31 min30+ point game
34 PTS · 2 REB · 6 AST
LAK. Plum
GGame leader · 34 min
25 PTS · 1 REB · 11 AST
How it ended
LA beat IND 100-91. K. Plum paced them with 25 PTS, 1 REB, 11 AST. LA outscored the other side 28-16 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LA vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 98% of ptsStarters(5)
89 PTS · 24 REB · 20 AST
GS 77
Bench(5)
2 PTS · 3 REB · 3 AST
LAstarters 90% of ptsStarters(5)
90 PTS · 26 REB · 24 AST
GS 82
Bench(4)
10 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
GS 4
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND1st Quarter · 4:49 · 17-15
+9pp→ 63% WP
Natasha Howard · makes free throw 1 of 2
LA2nd Quarter · 4:53 · 36-42
+7pp→ 66% WP
Julie Vanloo · makes 26-foot three pointer (Dearica Hamby assists)
LA3rd Quarter · 4:32 · 59-68
+7pp→ 82% WP
Kelsey Plum · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julie Allemand assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 27 | 16 | 21 | 27 | 91 |
| LA | 26 | 28 | 22 | 24 | 100 |
Period scoring
IND won 2 · LA won 2
27
26
Q1
Mitchell 10
Jackson 8
16
28
Q2
Cunningham 5
Hamby 10
21
22
Q3
Mitchell 11
Jackson 10
27
24
Q4
McDonald 11
Jackson 7
IND
LA
Shooting comparison
IND
LA
44%
34-77
FG
56%
37-66
36%
12-33
3PT
50%
13-26
85%
11-13
FT
87%
13-15
Play-by-play · 363 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 91·LA 100
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 91·LA 100
- Q4·19.6
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 91·LA 100
- Q4·19.6
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
IND 91·LA 99
- Q4·19.6
Sydney Colson enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
IND 91·LA 99
- Q4·19.6
Chloe Bibby enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
IND 91·LA 99
- Q4·19.6
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 91·LA 99
- Q4·19.6
Lexie Hull personal foul
IND 91·LA 98
- Q4·20.5
Azura Stevens defensive rebound
IND 91·LA 98
- Q4·23.0
Natasha Howard misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND 91·LA 98
+2pp
- Q4·38.8
Kelsey Plum bad pass (Lexie Hull steals)
·
IND 91·LA 98
−0.8pp
- Q4·56.3
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 91·LA 98
+2pp
- Q4·56.3
Natasha Howard enters the game for Sophie Cunningham
·
IND 90·LA 98
- Q4·56.3
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 90·LA 98
- Q4·56.3
Dearica Hamby shooting foul
IND 89·LA 98
−2pp
- Q4·1:02
Sophie Cunningham enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
IND 89·LA 98
- Q4·1:02
Fever Full timeout
IND 89·LA 98
+2pp
- Q4·1:02
Dearica Hamby personal foul
IND 89·LA 98
−2pp
- Q4·1:17
Azura Stevens makes 22-foot three point jumper (Julie Allemand assists)
·
IND 89·LA 98
+3pp
- Q4·1:30
Azura Stevens defensive rebound
IND 89·LA 95
+0.8pp
- Q4·1:34
Kelsey Mitchell misses 25-foot three point jumper
IND 89·LA 95
+2pp
- Q4·1:44
Aliyah Boston defensive rebound
IND 89·LA 95
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:49
Julie Allemand misses 26-foot three point jumper
IND 89·LA 95
−2pp
- Q4·2:09
Aari McDonald makes 27-foot three point shot (Kelsey Mitchell assists)
·
IND 89·LA 95
−3pp
- Q4·2:14
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
IND 86·LA 95
- Q4·2:16
Rickea Jackson misses layup
IND 86·LA 95
- Q4·2:37
Aari McDonald makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kelsey Mitchell assists)
·
IND 86·LA 95
−0.8pp
- Q4·2:38
Aliyah Boston offensive rebound
IND 83·LA 95
- Q4·2:40
Aliyah Boston misses layup
IND 83·LA 95
- Q4·2:53
Official timeout
IND 83·LA 95
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
LA
Home
34-77
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
37-66
44
FG %
56
12-33
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-26
11-13
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-15
23
Assists
25
4
Turnovers
11
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND0.7± 1.0low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
- Erica WheelerLA1.2± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
LA
45.4%
FG%
44.9
▶50.8%
32.1%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.0%
92.9
PPG
◀
86.0
91.5
22.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
20.8
14.4
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
16.8