Jun 10, 25sim 98
558
20(H)77
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+12SEA
SEA
5-4
8977
PHX
6-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
eattle Storm went into Phoenix Mercury and beat them, 89–77.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer
Gabby Williams
F · #5
24.1Game score
21
Pts
3
Reb
7
Ast
PHX · top performer
Satou Sabally
F · #0
11.3Game score
22
Pts
5
Reb
6
Ast
WNBA · Seattle Storm at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SEA5-4
8977
PHX6-4
SEA5-4PHX6-4
SEA
5-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 29 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +13 | |
| 35 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +18 | |
| 25 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +17 | |
| 35 | 26 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +17 | |
| 23 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +13 | |
| 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| 13 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -12 | |
| Team | 89 | 31 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 11 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson | ||||||||
PHX
6-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -9 | |
| 30 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | |
| 26 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 31 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -23 | |
| 17 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -12 | |
| 13 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -13 | |
| 17 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +10 | |
| 28 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 14 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +7 | |
| Team | 77 | 29 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 14 | ||
| DNP: A. Thomas, N. Mack, K. Copper, M. McConnell | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
44
22
Ast
21
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 18SEA59@PHX81
SEA59@PHX81May 24PHX70@SEA77
PHX70@SEA77Jun 8SEA89@PHX77today
SEA89@PHX77todayAug 17PHX85@SEA82
PHX85@SEA82Headlines · top performers
Game flowSEA ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 5:40
SEAG. Williams
FGame leader · 35 min
21 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST
PHXS. Sabally
FGame leader · 30 min
22 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
SEA beat PHX 89-77. G. Williams led with 21 PTS, 3 REB, 7 AST. SEA outscored the other side 24-16 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs SEA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSEAstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
73 PTS · 26 REB · 22 AST
GS 67
Bench(5)
16 PTS · 5 REB · 0 AST
GS 6
PHXstarters 62% of ptsStarters(5)
48 PTS · 14 REB · 13 AST
GS 31
Bench(4)
29 PTS · 15 REB · 8 AST
GS 20
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX1st Quarter · 4:10 · 15-15
+10pp→ 45% WP
Lexi Held · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kitija Laksa assists)
SEA4th Quarter · 6:16 · 70-67
+9pp→ 81% WP
Kathryn Westbeld · shooting foul
SEA4th Quarter · 5:40 · 70-67
+16pp→ 83% WP
Monique Akoa Makani · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 24 | 22 | 19 | 24 | 89 |
| PHX | 19 | 24 | 18 | 16 | 77 |
Period scoring
SEA won 3 · PHX won 1
24
19
Q1
Williams 10
Sabally 6
22
24
Q2
Williams 8
Held 5
19
18
Q3
Diggins 12
Sabally 9
24
16
Q4
Diggins 10
Whitcomb 5
SEA
PHX
Shooting comparison
SEA
PHX
48%
32-66
FG
44%
29-66
55%
12-22
3PT
32%
8-25
76%
13-17
FT
85%
11-13
Play-by-play · 378 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 89·PHX 77
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 89·PHX 77
- Q4·8.1
Erica Wheeler offensive rebound
SEA 89·PHX 77
- Q4·13.0
Skylar Diggins misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
SEA 89·PHX 77
- Q4·33.1
Erica Wheeler defensive rebound
SEA 89·PHX 77
- Q4·35.0
Kathryn Westbeld misses 24-foot three point shot
SEA 89·PHX 77
- Q4·39.0
Kitija Laksa defensive rebound
SEA 89·PHX 77
- Q4·41.1
Ezi Magbegor misses 6-foot two point shot
SEA 89·PHX 77
- Q4·58.2
Sami Whitcomb makes 27-foot three point jumper (Satou Sabally assists)
·
SEA 89·PHX 77
- Q4·1:04
Kathryn Westbeld offensive rebound
SEA 89·PHX 74
- Q4·1:06
Satou Sabally misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
SEA 89·PHX 74
- Q4·1:13
Erica Wheeler makes 19-foot pullup jump shot
SEA 89·PHX 74
- Q4·1:32
Storm offensive team rebound
SEA 87·PHX 74
- Q4·1:32
Skylar Diggins misses technical free throw
SEA 87·PHX 74
- Q4·1:32
Nate Tibbetts technical foul
SEA 87·PHX 74
- Q4·1:32
Skylar Diggins defensive rebound
SEA 87·PHX 74
- Q4·1:35
Lexi Held misses 27-foot three point shot
SEA 87·PHX 74
- Q4·1:41
Sami Whitcomb defensive rebound
SEA 87·PHX 74
- Q4·1:42
Erica Wheeler misses 24-foot three point shot
SEA 87·PHX 74
- Q4·1:51
Skylar Diggins defensive rebound
SEA 87·PHX 74
- Q4·1:51
Ezi Magbegor blocks Satou Sabally's layup
·
SEA 87·PHX 74
- Q4·1:52
Satou Sabally offensive rebound
SEA 87·PHX 74
- Q4·1:53
Satou Sabally misses driving floating jump shot
SEA 87·PHX 74
- Q4·2:05
Nneka Ogwumike makes 23-foot three point jumper (Gabby Williams assists)
·
SEA 87·PHX 74
−0.8pp
- Q4·2:15
Lexi Held makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 84·PHX 74
−0.6pp
- Q4·2:15
Lexi Held makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 84·PHX 73
- Q4·2:15
Erica Wheeler shooting foul
SEA 84·PHX 72
+1pp
- Q4·2:25
Mercury Full timeout
SEA 84·PHX 72
- Q4·2:27
Skylar Diggins makes 26-foot three pointer (Nneka Ogwumike assists)
·
SEA 84·PHX 72
−1pp
- Q4·2:42
Ezi Magbegor defensive rebound
SEA 81·PHX 72
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
32-66
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-66
48
FG %
44
12-22
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-25
13-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-13
22
Assists
21
11
Turnovers
14
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA3.7± 2.2low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
PHX
41.6%
FG%
44.9
▶43.4%
34.1%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.3%
79.5
PPG
86.0
▶85.6
17.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶18.1
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9