May 31, 25sim 98
2094
14(H)87
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2NY
NY
3-0
9088
IND
2-2
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ew York Liberty went into Indiana Fever and beat them, 90–88. Decided by 2.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Jonquel Jones
C · #35
23.5Game score
26
Pts
12
Reb
3
Ast
IND · top performer
Aliyah Boston
C · #7
23.9Game score
27
Pts
13
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · New York Liberty at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
NY3-0
9088
IND2-2
NY3-0IND2-2
NY
3-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 36 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -7 | |
DRB%.24980 USG%.28360 ORB%.05160 | ||||||||
| 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 36 | 26 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 | |
| 35 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +13 | |
| 37 | 23 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +11 | |
| 28 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +10 | |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| Team | 90 | 34 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 12 | ||
| DNP: I. Harrison, N. Sabally, J. Sherrod, M. Davis | ||||||||
IND
2-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 19 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 36 | 27 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | |
| 34 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 26 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 38 | 18 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | +6 | |
| 23 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +9 | |
| 20 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | |
| Team | 88 | 39 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 16 | ||
| DNP: B. Turner, M. Timpson, S. Colson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
45
19
Ast
20
Season series
NY wins series 3-1
May 24NY90@IND88today
NY90@IND88todayJun 14NY88@IND102
NY88@IND102Jul 16IND77@NY98
IND77@NY98Jul 23IND84@NY98
IND84@NY98Headlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ IND
Biggest swing: 37pp · 4th Quarter · 2.2
NYJ. Jones
CGame leader · 36 min
26 PTS · 12 REB · 3 AST
INDA. Boston
CGame leader · 36 min
27 PTS · 13 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
NY beat IND 90-88. J. Jones paced them with 26 PTS, 12 REB, 3 AST. IND outscored the other side 30-13 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 90% of ptsStarters(5)
81 PTS · 31 REB · 16 AST
GS 72
Bench(3)
9 PTS · 3 REB · 3 AST
GS 1
INDstarters 92% of ptsStarters(5)
81 PTS · 28 REB · 17 AST
GS 51
Bench(3)
7 PTS · 11 REB · 3 AST
GS 6
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY4th Quarter · 1:55 · 86-86
+19pp→ 75% WP
Aliyah Boston · shooting foul
IND4th Quarter · 1:18 · 88-86
+20pp→ 50% WP
Breanna Stewart · shooting foul
NY4th Quarter · 2.2 · 88-88
+37pp→ 92% WP
Lexie Hull · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 30 | 25 | 13 | 22 | 90 |
| IND | 29 | 17 | 30 | 12 | 88 |
Period scoring
NY won 3 · IND won 1
30
29
Q1
Stewart 10
Boston 10
25
17
Q2
Cloud 8
Boston 7
13
30
Q3
Ionescu 4
Clark 9
22
12
Q4
Jones 14
Howard 6
NY
IND
Shooting comparison
NY
IND
46%
29-63
FG
45%
35-78
26%
7-27
3PT
30%
7-23
78%
25-32
FT
73%
11-15
Play-by-play · 410 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 90·IND 88
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th QuarterBIG MOMENT
NY 90·IND 88
−7pp
- Q4·0.1
Caitlin Clark lost ball turnover (Natasha Cloud steals)
·
NY 90·IND 88
- Q4·2.2
Fever timeout
NY 90·IND 88
- Q4·2.2
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 90·IND 88
+2pp
- Q4·2.2
Caitlin Clark enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
NY 89·IND 88
- Q4·2.2
Sabrina Ionescu makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 89·IND 88
−3pp
- Q4·2.2
Lexie Hull shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NY 88·IND 88
−37pp
- Q4·7.1
Sophie Cunningham enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
NY 88·IND 88
- Q4·7.1
Liberty Full timeout
NY 88·IND 88
- Q4·7.1
Kennedy Burke defensive rebound
NY 88·IND 88
−2pp
- Q4·9.1
Kelsey Mitchell misses 13-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
NY 88·IND 88
−9pp
- Q4·10.1
Fever offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 88·IND 88
+9pp
- Q4·10.1
Natasha Cloud blocks DeWanna Bonner 's 1-foot layupBIG MOMENT
·
NY 88·IND 88
−8pp
- Q4·23.1
Fever offensive team rebound
NY 88·IND 88
- Q4·23.1
Breanna Stewart vs. Aliyah Boston (DeWanna Bonner gains possession)BIG MOMENT
· ·
NY 88·IND 88
+8pp
- Q4·29.0
Caitlin Clark misses 30-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
NY 88·IND 88
−8pp
- Q4·36.2
Fever Full timeout
NY 88·IND 88
- Q4·44.0
Lexie Hull defensive rebound
NY 88·IND 88
+3pp
- Q4·48.1
Sabrina Ionescu misses 29-foot three point shotBIG MOMENT
NY 88·IND 88
+8pp
- Q4·51.2
Natasha Cloud defensive rebound
NY 88·IND 88
−3pp
- Q4·54.1
Aliyah Boston misses 1-foot hook shotBIG MOMENT
NY 88·IND 88
−7pp
- Q4·1:03
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
NY 88·IND 88
+3pp
- Q4·1:06
Sabrina Ionescu misses 27-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
NY 88·IND 88
+7pp
- Q4·1:18
Aliyah Boston makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 88·IND 88
−7pp
- Q4·1:18
Aliyah Boston makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 88·IND 87
+2pp
- Q4·1:18
Breanna Stewart shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NY 88·IND 86
+20pp
- Q4·1:33
Fever Full timeout
NY 88·IND 86
- Q4·1:33
Jonquel Jones makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 88·IND 86
+10pp
- Q4·1:33
Jonquel Jones makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 87·IND 86
−2pp
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
IND
Home
29-63
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
35-78
46
FG %
45
7-27
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-23
25-32
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-15
19
Assists
20
12
Turnovers
16
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 16 players in cohort
Breanna StewartNY · FDRB%.24980
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Pauline AstierNY3.6± 2.5low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
Steals
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
IND
45.9%
FG%
44.9
45.4%
35.8%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.1%
88.0
PPG
86.0
▶92.9
22.1
Assists / G
18.0
22.3
14.3
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.4