May 25, 25sim 98
1782
14(H)102
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3LV
WSH
2-2
7275
LV
2-1
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces held off Washington Mystics, 75–72. Decided by 3.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
WSH · top performer
Sonia Citron
G · #22
15.9Game score
19
Pts
5
Reb
3
Ast
LV · top performer
Jackie Young
G · #0
21.0Game score
25
Pts
5
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Washington Mystics at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
WSH2-2
7275
LV2-1
WSH2-2LV2-1
WSH
2-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 17 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 29 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +18 | |
| 33 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 36 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 35 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
| 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -21 | |
| 16 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | |
| Team | 72 | 36 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 15 | ||
LV
2-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 16 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -17 | |
| 38 | 15 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +11 | |
| 34 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | |
| 29 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +11 | |
| 33 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +8 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -6 | |
| 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| 20 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| Team | 75 | 32 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 8 | ||
| DNP: E. Kitley | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
40
FG %
35
18
Ast
15
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 24WSH72@LV75today
WSH72@LV75todayJun 27WSH94@LV83
WSH94@LV83Jul 10LV68@WSH70
LV68@WSH70Aug 23LV91@WSH81
LV91@WSH81Headlines · top performers
Game flowWSH ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 42pp · 4th Quarter · 2.1
WSHS. Citron
GGame leader · 36 min
19 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
LVJ. Young
GGame leader · 33 min
25 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
LV beat WSH 75-72. J. Young paced them with 25 PTS, 5 REB, 3 AST. LV outscored the other side 25-13 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs WSH
Starters vs bench
production by unitWSHstarters 94% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 29 REB · 15 AST
GS 51
Bench(3)
4 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST
LVstarters 88% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 29 REB · 13 AST
GS 53
Bench(5)
9 PTS · 3 REB · 2 AST
GS 4
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWSH4th Quarter · 1:43 · 71-66
+16pp→ 86% WP
Sonia Citron · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Stefanie Dolson assists)
LV4th Quarter · 11.1 · 72-72
+18pp→ 44% WP
Jackie Young · makes 5-foot layup (A'ja Wilson assists)
LV4th Quarter · 2.1 · 72-75
+42pp→ 97% WP
Jewell Loyd · makes 23-foot three point jumper (A'ja Wilson assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 18 | 24 | 17 | 13 | 72 |
| LV | 16 | 17 | 17 | 25 | 75 |
Period scoring
WSH won 2 · LV won 1
18
16
Q1
Dolson 5
Wilson 5
24
17
Q2
Iriafen 7
Gray 5
17
17
Q3
Citron 7
Gray 6
13
25
Q4
Citron 6
Young 13
WSH
LV
Shooting comparison
WSH
LV
40%
24-60
FG
35%
24-69
50%
10-20
3PT
24%
8-33
82%
14-17
FT
95%
19-20
Play-by-play · 386 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 72·LV 75
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 72·LV 75
+3pp
- Q4·2.1
Jewell Loyd makes 23-foot three point jumper (A'ja Wilson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
WSH 72·LV 75
+42pp
- Q4·7.1
Sika Kone enters the game for Stefanie Dolson
·
WSH 72·LV 72
- Q4·7.1
Dana Evans enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
WSH 72·LV 72
−0.7pp
- Q4·7.1
(00:07.3) [Aces] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Aces] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
WSH 72·LV 72
+39pp
- Q4·7.1
Aces Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
WSH 72·LV 72
−28pp
- Q4·8.1
Kiah Stokes defensive rebound
WSH 72·LV 72
+3pp
- Q4·8.1
Kiah Stokes blocks Jade Melbourne 's 6-foot driving layup
·
WSH 72·LV 72
−2pp
- Q4·11.1
Stefanie Dolson enters the game for Sika Kone
·
WSH 72·LV 72
- Q4·11.1
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Dana Evans
·
WSH 72·LV 72
- Q4·11.1
Mystics timeout
WSH 72·LV 72
- Q4·11.1
Jackie Young makes 5-foot layup (A'ja Wilson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
WSH 72·LV 72
+18pp
- Q4·15.2
Sika Kone enters the game for Stefanie Dolson
·
WSH 72·LV 70
- Q4·15.2
Aces Full timeout
WSH 72·LV 70
- Q4·15.2
shot clock turnover
WSH 72·LV 70
+4pp
- Q4·39.2
Jackie Young makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
WSH 72·LV 70
+6pp
- Q4·44.1
Stefanie Dolson bad pass (Jackie Young steals)
·
WSH 72·LV 68
+5pp
- Q4·1:08
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
WSH 72·LV 68
−6pp
- Q4·1:08
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 72·LV 67
+2pp
- Q4·1:08
Jade Melbourne personal foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 72·LV 66
+9pp
- Q4·1:08
Jackie Young offensive rebound
WSH 72·LV 66
+3pp
- Q4·1:10
Jewell Loyd misses 25-foot three point jumper
WSH 72·LV 66
−3pp
- Q4·1:15
Aces timeout
WSH 72·LV 66
- Q4·1:15
Jade Melbourne makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 72·LV 66
- Q4·1:15
Mystics offensive team rebound
WSH 71·LV 66
+3pp
- Q4·1:15
Jade Melbourne misses free throw 1 of 2
WSH 71·LV 66
+2pp
- Q4·1:15
Jackie Young personal foul
WSH 71·LV 66
−5pp
- Q4·1:23
Mystics defensive team rebound
WSH 71·LV 66
−2pp
- Q4·1:28
Chelsea Gray misses 25-foot three point jumper
WSH 71·LV 66
−5pp
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
LV
Home
24-60
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
24-69
40
FG %
35
10-20
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-33
14-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-20
18
Assists
15
15
Turnovers
8
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
Steals
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
- Sonia CitronWSH1.2± 0.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
LV
44.8%
FG%
44.9
▶49.7%
28.8%
3PT %
33.0
▶34.9%
82.8
PPG
86.0
▶91.0
17.5
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
15.7
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6