May 24, 25sim 98
990
5(H)88
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+7ATL
ATL
5-2
9487
SEA
3-3
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream went into Seattle Storm and beat them, 94–87.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Rhyne Howard
G · #10
26.0Game score
33
Pts
6
Reb
5
Ast
SEA · top performer
Skylar Diggins
G · #4
17.9Game score
20
Pts
4
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Seattle Storm · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL5-2
9487
SEA3-3
ATL5-2SEA3-3
ATL
5-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 29 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +6 | |
| 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -22 | |
| 38 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4 | |
| 14 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
| 36 | 33 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | |
| 12 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 24 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +24 | |
| 22 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +6 | |
| 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| Team | 94 | 35 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 11 | ||
| DNP: T. Thierry, J. Canada | ||||||||
SEA
3-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 31 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | +3 | |
| 29 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | |
| 33 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| 29 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| 11 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| 18 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| Team | 87 | 33 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 14 | ||
| DNP: A. Clark, K. Samuelson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
51
18
Ast
17
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 31ATL94@SEA87today
ATL94@SEA87todayJul 3SEA80@ATL79
SEA80@ATL79Aug 14ATL85@SEA75
ATL85@SEA75Aug 16SEA80@ATL78
SEA80@ATL78Headlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ SEA
Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 4:46
ATLR. Howard
GGame leader · 36 min30+ point game
33 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST
SEAS. Diggins
GGame leader · 33 min
20 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
ATL beat SEA 94-87. R. Howard paced them with 33 PTS, 6 REB, 5 AST. ATL outscored the other side 31-21 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SEA vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
78 PTS · 21 REB · 11 AST
GS 56
Bench(4)
16 PTS · 14 REB · 7 AST
GS 16
SEAstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 26 REB · 15 AST
GS 49
Bench(4)
15 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
GS 13
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactATL4th Quarter · 9:01 · 65-66
+13pp→ 51% WP
Dominique Malonga · shooting foul
ATL4th Quarter · 5:51 · 77-74
+13pp→ 79% WP
Gabby Williams · shooting foul
ATL4th Quarter · 4:46 · 78-74
+15pp→ 85% WP
Rhyne Howard · makes free throw 1 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 15 | 19 | 29 | 31 | 94 |
| SEA | 23 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 87 |
Period scoring
ATL won 2 · SEA won 2
15
23
Q1
Howard 7
Ogwumike 8
19
22
Q2
Howard 7
Yueru 7
29
21
Q3
Gray 10
Diggins 8
31
21
Q4
Howard 13
Ogwumike 10
ATL
SEA
Shooting comparison
ATL
SEA
45%
34-76
FG
51%
34-67
29%
9-31
3PT
27%
3-11
74%
17-23
FT
80%
16-20
Play-by-play · 424 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 94·SEA 87
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 94·SEA 87
- Q4·16.1
Gabby Williams out of bounds bad pass turnover
ATL 94·SEA 87
- Q4·17.0
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Shatori Walker-Kimbrough
·
ATL 94·SEA 87
- Q4·17.0
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
ATL 94·SEA 87
- Q4·17.0
Storm Full timeout
ATL 94·SEA 87
- Q4·17.0
Nneka Ogwumike defensive rebound
ATL 94·SEA 87
- Q4·17.2
Rhyne Howard misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 94·SEA 87
- Q4·17.2
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 94·SEA 87
- Q4·17.2
Gabby Williams personal take foul
ATL 93·SEA 87
−0.5pp
- Q4·21.1
Gabby Williams makes 24-foot three pointer
ATL 93·SEA 87
+0.5pp
- Q4·26.1
Brionna Jones makes layup (Rhyne Howard assists)
·
ATL 93·SEA 84
−0.5pp
- Q4·49.0
Nneka Ogwumike makes 7-foot hook shot (Gabby Williams assists)
·
ATL 91·SEA 84
−1pp
- Q4·53.1
Zia Cooke enters the game for Erica Wheeler
·
ATL 91·SEA 82
- Q4·53.1
Storm Full timeout
ATL 91·SEA 82
+1pp
- Q4·54.1
Rhyne Howard makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 91·SEA 82
−0.6pp
- Q4·1:12
Rhyne Howard defensive rebound
ATL 89·SEA 82
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:16
Erica Wheeler misses 23-foot three point jumper
ATL 89·SEA 82
−2pp
- Q4·1:27
Storm Full timeout
ATL 89·SEA 82
- Q4·1:27
Rhyne Howard makes 25-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
ATL 89·SEA 82
−6pp
- Q4·1:42
Ezi Magbegor makes tip shot
ATL 86·SEA 82
+3pp
- Q4·1:42
Ezi Magbegor offensive rebound
ATL 86·SEA 80
+2pp
- Q4·1:45
Ezi Magbegor misses layup
ATL 86·SEA 80
−3pp
- Q4·2:00
Brionna Jones makes 3-foot hook shot
ATL 86·SEA 80
−4pp
- Q4·2:12
Ezi Magbegor turnover
ATL 84·SEA 80
- Q4·2:12
Ezi Magbegor offensive foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 84·SEA 80
−7pp
- Q4·2:24
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough turnover
ATL 84·SEA 80
- Q4·2:24
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough offensive foul
ATL 84·SEA 80
+4pp
- Q4·2:43
Gabby Williams bad pass (Brionna Jones steals)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 84·SEA 80
−7pp
- Q4·2:58
Allisha Gray makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 84·SEA 80
+5pp
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
34-76
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-67
45
FG %
51
9-31
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
3-11
17-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-20
18
Assists
17
11
Turnovers
14
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Rhyne HowardATL13.8± 9.6low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Madina OkotATL5.0± 5.3low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
- Stefanie DolsonSEA0.9± 1.3low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Angel ReeseATL1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
SEA
43.5%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.6%
31.7%
3PT %
33.0
▶34.1%
83.5
PPG
◀
86.0
79.5
19.5
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.0
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6