May 25, 25sim 98
1782
14(H)102
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+14MIN
MIN
2-0
8975
LA
1-1
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx went into Los Angeles Sparks and beat them, 89–75.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
17.0Game score
23
Pts
6
Reb
1
Ast
LA · top performer
Azura Stevens
F · #23
19.8Game score
21
Pts
6
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Los Angeles Sparks · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN2-0
8975
LA1-1
MIN2-0LA1-1
MIN
2-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 40 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +14 | |
| 17 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +14 | |
| 33 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +16 | |
| 30 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +13 | |
| 28 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +13 | |
| 30 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 13 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| Team | 89 | 34 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 8 | ||
| DNP: A. Pili, K. McBride | ||||||||
LA
1-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 20 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -12 | |
| 34 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -14 | |
| 23 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | |
| 35 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -15 | |
| 34 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -17 | |
| 14 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | |
| Team | 75 | 29 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 11 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
40
27
Ast
15
Season series
MIN wins series 4-0
May 18MIN89@LA75today
MIN89@LA75todayJun 14LA78@MIN101
LA78@MIN101Jun 22LA66@MIN82
LA66@MIN82Jul 10MIN91@LA82
MIN91@LA82Headlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ LA
Biggest swing: 22pp · 4th Quarter · 8:02
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 33 min
23 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
LAA. Stevens
FGame leader · 34 min
21 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
MIN beat LA 89-75. N. Collier led with 23 PTS, 6 REB, 1 AST. Kelsey Plum's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LA vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 22 REB · 21 AST
GS 56
Bench(5)
21 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST
GS 20
LAstarters 92% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 25 REB · 12 AST
GS 45
Bench(2)
6 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST
GS 6
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMIN1st Quarter · 7:59 · 5-1
+22pp→ 73% WP
Odyssey Sims · bad pass (Bridget Carleton steals)
MIN4th Quarter · 4:07 · 74-65
+20pp→ 97% WP
Napheesa Collier · blocks Dearica Hamby 's 5-foot driving layup
LA4th Quarter · 8:02 · 72-66
+22pp→ 23% WP
Kelsey Plum · makes free throw 1 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 30 | 16 | 24 | 19 | 89 |
| LA | 25 | 20 | 17 | 13 | 75 |
Period scoring
MIN won 3 · LA won 1
30
25
Q1
Collier 12
Hamby 20
16
20
Q2
Collier 5
Hamby 11
24
17
Q3
Williams 11
Plum 6
19
13
Q4
Collier 10
Stevens 8
MIN
LA
Shooting comparison
MIN
LA
48%
34-71
FG
40%
24-60
40%
10-25
3PT
35%
9-26
85%
11-13
FT
75%
18-24
Play-by-play · 359 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 89·LA 75
−3pp
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 82·LA 75
- Q4·3.0
Dearica Hamby lost ball turnover (Marieme Badiane steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 82·LA 75
−11pp
- Q4·19.1
Jessica Shepard makes free throw 1 of 1
MIN 82·LA 75
+0.6pp
- Q4·19.1
Natisha Hiedeman enters the game for Napheesa Collier
·
MIN 81·LA 75
- Q4·19.1
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu enters the game for Courtney Williams
·
MIN 81·LA 75
- Q4·19.1
Marieme Badiane enters the game for Bridget Carleton
·
MIN 81·LA 75
- Q4·19.1
Odyssey Sims shooting foul
MIN 81·LA 75
−3pp
- Q4·19.1
Jessica Shepard makes layup (Courtney Williams assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 81·LA 75
−14pp
- Q4·40.0
Lynx timeoutBIG MOMENT
MIN 79·LA 75
−6pp
- Q4·40.0
Azura Stevens makes 2-foot layup (Sarah Ashlee Barker assists)
·
MIN 79·LA 75
+4pp
- Q4·50.1
Dearica Hamby defensive rebound
MIN 79·LA 73
+0.7pp
- Q4·52.1
Karlie Samuelson misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIN 79·LA 73
+2pp
- Q4·1:16
Jessica Shepard defensive rebound
MIN 79·LA 73
−1pp
- Q4·1:17
Azura Stevens misses 16-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 79·LA 73
−13pp
- Q4·1:28
Karlie Samuelson personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 79·LA 73
+12pp
- Q4·1:41
Azura Stevens defensive rebound
MIN 79·LA 73
+0.8pp
- Q4·1:43
Courtney Williams misses 16-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 79·LA 73
−16pp
- Q4·2:06
Azura Stevens makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dearica Hamby assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 79·LA 73
−14pp
- Q4·2:26
Dearica Hamby defensive rebound
MIN 79·LA 68
- Q4·2:28
Bridget Carleton misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIN 79·LA 68
- Q4·2:44
Bridget Carleton defensive rebound
MIN 79·LA 68
- Q4·2:49
Odyssey Sims misses 20-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 79·LA 68
- Q4·3:00
Dearica Hamby offensive rebound
MIN 79·LA 68
- Q4·3:01
Sarah Ashlee Barker misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIN 79·LA 68
−0.5pp
- Q4·3:12
Napheesa Collier turnover
MIN 79·LA 68
- Q4·3:12
Napheesa Collier offensive foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 79·LA 68
−13pp
- Q4·3:18
Sarah Ashlee Barker personal foul
MIN 79·LA 68
−2pp
- Q4·3:32
Mercedes Russell enters the game for Kelsey PlumBIG MOMENT
·
MIN 79·LA 68
−10pp
- Q4·3:32
(03:32) [Sparks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Sparks] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
MIN 76·LA 66
−14pp
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
LA
Home
34-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
24-60
48
FG %
40
10-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-26
11-13
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-24
27
Assists
15
8
Turnovers
11
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
- Dearica HambyLA16.0± 8.0low
Rebounds
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
LA
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
50.8%
35.3%
3PT %
33.0
35.0%
89.7
PPG
86.0
▶91.5
21.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
20.8
15.4
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
16.8