May 24, 25sim 98
1672
17(H)75
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+20SEA
LV
2-2
82102
SEA
3-1
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
eattle Storm held off Las Vegas Aces, 102–82. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
13.3Game score
15
Pts
5
Reb
4
Ast
SEA · top performer
Erica Wheeler
G · #17
24.0Game score
21
Pts
3
Reb
7
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Seattle Storm · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV2-2
82102
SEA3-1
LV2-2SEA3-1
LV
2-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 17 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -20 | |
| 28 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -19 | |
| 25 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -14 | |
| 34 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -18 | |
| 26 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -21 | |
| 16 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +7 | |
| 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | |
| 19 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 18 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| Team | 82 | 25 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 12 | ||
| DNP: M. Gustafson | ||||||||
SEA
3-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 25 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 29 | 23 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +17 | |
| 30 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +23 | |
| 25 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +16 | |
| 29 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +17 | |
| 12 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 30 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +17 | |
| 11 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| Team | 102 | 34 | 32 | 7 | 2 | 11 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
60
19
Ast
32
Playoff series
LV wins series 2-1
Sep 15SEA77@LV102
SEA77@LV102Sep 17LV83@SEA86
LV83@SEA86Sep 19SEA73@LV74
SEA73@LV74Headlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ SEA
Biggest swing: 7pp · 1st Quarter · 3:39
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 28 min
15 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
SEAE. Wheeler
GGame leader · 30 min
21 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST
How it ended
SEA beat LV 102-82. E. Wheeler led with 21 PTS, 3 REB, 7 AST. SEA outscored the other side 34-20 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SEA vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 62% of ptsStarters(5)
51 PTS · 15 REB · 13 AST
GS 39
Bench(6)
31 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST
GS 26
SEAstarters 65% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 23 REB · 23 AST
GS 59
Bench(5)
36 PTS · 11 REB · 9 AST
GS 35
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV1st Quarter · 7:29 · 9-9
+6pp→ 48% WP
Jewell Loyd · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Chelsea Gray assists)
SEA1st Quarter · 4:43 · 11-16
+7pp→ 65% WP
Gabby Williams · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nneka Ogwumike assists)
SEA1st Quarter · 3:39 · 16-21
+7pp→ 65% WP
Erica Wheeler · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Skylar Diggins assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 20 | 16 | 23 | 23 | 82 |
| SEA | 34 | 24 | 22 | 22 | 102 |
Period scoring
LV won 2 · SEA won 2
20
34
Q1
Loyd 12
Ogwumike 11
16
24
Q2
Gray 7
Wheeler 7
23
22
Q3
Wilson 8
Ogwumike 8
23
22
Q4
Nye 7
Wheeler 7
LV
SEA
Shooting comparison
LV
SEA
44%
29-66
FG
60%
42-70
36%
9-25
3PT
50%
8-16
75%
15-20
FT
83%
10-12
Play-by-play · 348 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 82·SEA 102
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 82·SEA 102
- Q4·9.2
Kierstan Bell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dana Evans assists)
·
LV 82·SEA 102
- Q4·20.0
Erica Wheeler makes driving layup
LV 79·SEA 102
- Q4·33.0
shot clock turnover
LV 79·SEA 100
- Q4·57.0
Zia Cooke out of bounds lost ball turnover
LV 79·SEA 100
- Q4·1:06
Li Yueru defensive rebound
LV 79·SEA 100
- Q4·1:07
Tiffany Mitchell misses driving layup
LV 79·SEA 100
- Q4·1:16
Erica Wheeler makes 23-foot three pointer
LV 79·SEA 100
- Q4·1:29
Aaliyah Nye makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kierstan Bell assists)
·
LV 79·SEA 97
- Q4·1:46
Kierstan Bell defensive rebound
LV 76·SEA 97
- Q4·1:48
Dominique Malonga misses 4-foot jumper
LV 76·SEA 97
- Q4·1:51
Zia Cooke offensive rebound
LV 76·SEA 97
- Q4·1:52
Lexie Brown misses two point shot
LV 76·SEA 97
- Q4·1:57
Dana Evans bad pass (Lexie Brown steals)
·
LV 76·SEA 97
- Q4·2:07
Zia Cooke makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 76·SEA 97
- Q4·2:07
Zia Cooke makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 76·SEA 96
- Q4·2:07
Aaliyah Nye shooting foul
LV 76·SEA 95
- Q4·2:17
Tiffany Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 76·SEA 95
- Q4·2:17
Kierstan Bell enters the game for Jewell Loyd
·
LV 75·SEA 95
- Q4·2:17
Tiffany Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 75·SEA 95
- Q4·2:17
Li Yueru shooting foul
LV 74·SEA 95
- Q4·2:25
Erica Wheeler bad pass (Elizabeth Kitley steals)
·
LV 74·SEA 95
- Q4·2:44
Elizabeth Kitley makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 74·SEA 95
- Q4·2:44
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 73·SEA 95
- Q4·2:44
Elizabeth Kitley misses free throw 1 of 2
LV 73·SEA 95
- Q4·2:44
Li Yueru shooting foul
LV 73·SEA 95
- Q4·3:06
Dominique Malonga makes two point shot (Zia Cooke assists)
·
LV 73·SEA 95
- Q4·3:12
Zia Cooke defensive rebound
LV 73·SEA 93
- Q4·3:14
Tiffany Mitchell misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
LV 73·SEA 93
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
29-66
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
42-70
44
FG %
60
9-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-16
15-20
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-12
19
Assists
32
12
Turnovers
11
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
Steals
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
- A'ja WilsonLV1.0± 1.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
SEA
49.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.6%
34.9%
3PT %
◀
33.0
34.1%
91.0
PPG
◀
86.0
79.5
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.0
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
13.6