Jun 15, 25sim 98
1176
17(H)70
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+5LV
LV
4-2
7570
SEA
3-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces went into Seattle Storm and beat them, 75–70.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
15.0Game score
19
Pts
7
Reb
3
Ast
SEA · top performer
Gabby Williams
F · #5
12.6Game score
20
Pts
4
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Seattle Storm · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV4-2
7570
SEA3-4
LV4-2SEA3-4
LV
4-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 19 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 35 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| 34 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | +2 | |
| 28 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 32 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +14 | |
| 21 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +15 | |
| 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| Team | 75 | 31 | 17 | 11 | 4 | 15 | ||
| DNP: C. Bradford, K. Bell, M. Gustafson | ||||||||
SEA
3-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -13 | |
| 34 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +12 | |
| 33 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +6 | |
| 25 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -9 | |
| 32 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | +11 | |
| 13 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 22 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -19 | |
| Team | 70 | 32 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 19 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, L. Brown | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
43
17
Ast
19
Playoff series
LV wins series 2-1
Sep 15SEA77@LV102
SEA77@LV102Sep 17LV83@SEA86
LV83@SEA86Sep 19SEA73@LV74
SEA73@LV74Headlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ SEA
Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 1:02
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 35 min
19 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST
SEAG. Williams
FGame leader · 33 min
20 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
LV beat SEA 75-70. A. Wilson led with 19 PTS, 7 REB, 3 AST. LV outscored the other side 27-17 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SEA vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
53 PTS · 29 REB · 14 AST
GS 45
Bench(4)
22 PTS · 2 REB · 3 AST
GS 10
SEAstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
52 PTS · 27 REB · 12 AST
GS 35
Bench(4)
18 PTS · 5 REB · 7 AST
GS 8
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV3rd Quarter · 3:32 · 48-40
+8pp→ 83% WP
Skylar Diggins · misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
LV3rd Quarter · 4.1 · 61-47
+15pp→ 97% WP
Dominique Malonga · enters the game for Ezi Magbegor
SEA4th Quarter · 1:02 · 73-68
+16pp→ 23% WP
Chelsea Gray · personal foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 27 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 75 |
| SEA | 17 | 15 | 15 | 23 | 70 |
Period scoring
LV won 3 · SEA won 1
27
17
Q1
Young 8
Williams 5
17
15
Q2
Loyd 6
Williams 10
17
15
Q3
Wilson 7
Diggins 7
14
23
Q4
Gray 5
Malonga 8
LV
SEA
Shooting comparison
LV
SEA
42%
27-64
FG
43%
28-65
40%
10-25
3PT
36%
8-22
79%
11-14
FT
86%
6-7
Play-by-play · 368 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 75·SEA 70
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 75·SEA 70
- Q4·2.1
Chelsea Gray defensive rebound
LV 75·SEA 70
- Q4·5.0
Skylar Diggins misses 20-foot pullup jump shot
LV 75·SEA 70
−0.9pp
- Q4·6.0
Storm timeout
LV 75·SEA 70
- Q4·6.0
Jewell Loyd makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 75·SEA 70
+0.7pp
- Q4·6.0
Jewell Loyd makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 74·SEA 70
- Q4·6.0
Erica Wheeler personal take foul
LV 73·SEA 70
−3pp
- Q4·8.2
Jewell Loyd defensive rebound
LV 73·SEA 70
−3pp
- Q4·10.1
Dominique Malonga misses 9-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
LV 73·SEA 70
−7pp
- Q4·13.0
Storm Full timeout
LV 73·SEA 70
- Q4·13.0
shot clock turnover
LV 73·SEA 70
+1pp
- Q4·37.1
Gabby Williams makes driving layup (Skylar Diggins assists)
·
LV 73·SEA 70
+3pp
- Q4·45.1
Storm Full timeout
LV 73·SEA 68
−0.7pp
- Q4·50.0
Erica Wheeler offensive rebound
LV 73·SEA 68
+3pp
- Q4·53.1
Skylar Diggins misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LV 73·SEA 68
−16pp
- Q4·1:02
Chelsea Gray personal foulBIG MOMENT
LV 73·SEA 68
+16pp
- Q4·1:12
Gabby Williams defensive rebound
LV 73·SEA 68
+0.6pp
- Q4·1:15
Chelsea Gray misses 12-foot pullup jump shot
LV 73·SEA 68
+4pp
- Q4·1:25
Skylar Diggins personal foul
LV 73·SEA 68
−4pp
- Q4·1:39
Erica Wheeler makes 27-foot three point jumper (Skylar Diggins assists)
·
LV 73·SEA 68
+3pp
- Q4·1:43
Nneka Ogwumike offensive rebound
LV 73·SEA 65
+1pp
- Q4·1:45
Gabby Williams misses 26-foot three point jumper
LV 73·SEA 65
−1pp
- Q4·1:54
Nneka Ogwumike defensive rebound
LV 73·SEA 65
- Q4·1:56
A'ja Wilson misses driving layup
LV 73·SEA 65
+0.6pp
- Q4·2:10
Nneka Ogwumike makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dominique Malonga assists)
·
LV 73·SEA 65
+1pp
- Q4·2:21
A'ja Wilson makes 13-foot step back jumpshot
LV 73·SEA 62
−1pp
- Q4·2:39
Erica Wheeler bad pass (A'ja Wilson steals)
·
LV 71·SEA 62
−1pp
- Q4·2:45
Chelsea Gray makes 19-foot pullup jump shot
LV 71·SEA 62
−3pp
- Q4·3:10
Nneka Ogwumike makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Skylar Diggins assists)
·
LV 69·SEA 62
+2pp
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
27-64
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-65
42
FG %
43
10-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-22
11-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
6-7
17
Assists
19
15
Turnovers
19
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
Steals
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
- A'ja WilsonLV1.0± 1.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
SEA
49.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.6%
34.9%
3PT %
◀
33.0
34.1%
91.0
PPG
◀
86.0
79.5
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.0
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
13.6