Jun 1, 25sim 98
1775
14(H)70
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+7SEA
PHX
2-1
7077
SEA
2-1
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
eattle Storm held off Phoenix Mercury, 77–70.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Monique Akoa Makani
G · #8
10.0Game score
14
Pts
2
Reb
2
Ast
SEA · top performer
Skylar Diggins
G · #4
24.8Game score
24
Pts
4
Reb
14
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Seattle Storm · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX2-1
7077
SEA2-1
PHX2-1SEA2-1
PHX
2-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 27 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +4 | |
| 32 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +6 | |
| 28 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | |
| 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | |
| 15 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -16 | |
| 17 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -10 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -6 | |
| Team | 70 | 34 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 19 | ||
| DNP: N. Mack, M. Musa, K. Copper | ||||||||
SEA
2-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 35 | 24 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | |
| 37 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +8 | |
| 32 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | |
| 37 | 24 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +9 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +11 | |
| 23 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +14 | |
| 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| Team | 77 | 30 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 15 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
47
18
Ast
21
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 18SEA59@PHX81
SEA59@PHX81May 24PHX70@SEA77today
PHX70@SEA77todayJun 8SEA89@PHX77
SEA89@PHX77Aug 17PHX85@SEA82
PHX85@SEA82Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ SEA
Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 6:42
PHXM. Akoa Makani
GGame leader · 23 min
14 PTS · 2 REB · 2 AST
SEAS. Diggins
GGame leader · 37 min
24 PTS · 4 REB · 14 AST
How it ended
SEA beat PHX 77-70. S. Diggins led with 24 PTS, 4 REB, 14 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SEA vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 79% of ptsStarters(5)
55 PTS · 27 REB · 16 AST
GS 38
Bench(4)
15 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
GS 8
SEAstarters 87% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 25 REB · 18 AST
GS 58
Bench(5)
10 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
GS 3
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX3rd Quarter · 4.1 · 61-62
+12pp→ 43% WP
Li Yueru · offensive foul
SEA4th Quarter · 6:42 · 62-66
+13pp→ 85% WP
Monique Akoa Makani · shooting foul
PHX4th Quarter · 4:48 · 70-70
+13pp→ 42% WP
Monique Akoa Makani · makes 23-foot three point shot (Alyssa Thomas assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 24 | 20 | 17 | 9 | 70 |
| SEA | 24 | 18 | 20 | 15 | 77 |
Period scoring
PHX won 1 · SEA won 2
24
24
Q1
Sabally 9
Diggins 9
20
18
Q2
Thomas 8
Diggins 5
17
20
Q3
Sabally 5
Ogwumike 10
9
15
Q4
Makani 8
Diggins 6
PHX
SEA
Shooting comparison
PHX
SEA
43%
27-63
FG
47%
30-64
33%
8-24
3PT
28%
5-18
73%
8-11
FT
86%
12-14
Play-by-play · 362 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 70·SEA 77
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 70·SEA 77
- Q4·18.1
Nneka Ogwumike defensive rebound
PHX 70·SEA 77
- Q4·20.1
Alexa Held misses 20-foot jumper
PHX 70·SEA 77
+1pp
- Q4·28.0
Skylar Diggins makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 70·SEA 77
- Q4·28.0
Storm offensive team rebound
PHX 70·SEA 76
−0.7pp
- Q4·28.0
Skylar Diggins misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 70·SEA 76
- Q4·28.0
Alexa Held personal foul
PHX 70·SEA 76
- Q4·30.1
Alexa Held personal foul
PHX 70·SEA 76
+1pp
- Q4·31.1
Storm Full timeout
PHX 70·SEA 76
- Q4·31.1
Storm defensive team rebound
PHX 70·SEA 76
+0.5pp
- Q4·31.1
Nneka Ogwumike blocks Alyssa Thomas 's 5-foot layupBIG MOMENT
·
PHX 70·SEA 76
+10pp
- Q4·36.1
Gabby Williams personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 70·SEA 76
−9pp
- Q4·38.1
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
PHX 70·SEA 76
- Q4·42.1
Gabby Williams misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 70·SEA 76
- Q4·1:03
Ezi Magbegor defensive rebound
PHX 70·SEA 76
+0.6pp
- Q4·1:05
Satou Sabally misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 70·SEA 76
+2pp
- Q4·1:09
Alexa Held enters the game for Monique Akoa Makani
·
PHX 70·SEA 76
- Q4·1:09
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 70·SEA 76
- Q4·1:09
Nneka Ogwumike makes layup (Gabby Williams assists)
·
PHX 70·SEA 76
+3pp
- Q4·1:23
Nneka Ogwumike defensive rebound
PHX 70·SEA 74
+1pp
- Q4·1:25
Kathryn Westbeld misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
PHX 70·SEA 74
+3pp
- Q4·1:47
(01:47) [Mercury] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
PHX 70·SEA 74
+3pp
- Q4·1:47
shot clock turnover
PHX 70·SEA 74
−4pp
- Q4·2:11
Ezi Magbegor defensive rebound
PHX 70·SEA 74
+2pp
- Q4·2:13
Skylar Diggins blocks Monique Akoa Makani 's 3-foot driving layup
·
PHX 70·SEA 74
+5pp
- Q4·2:22
Nneka Ogwumike makes driving layup (Skylar Diggins assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 70·SEA 74
+9pp
- Q4·2:43
Erica Wheeler defensive rebound
PHX 70·SEA 72
+2pp
- Q4·2:45
Monique Akoa Makani misses 19-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 70·SEA 72
+6pp
- Q4·3:06
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 70·SEA 72
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
27-63
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-64
43
FG %
47
8-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-18
8-11
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-14
18
Assists
21
19
Turnovers
15
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 11 players in cohort
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA3.7± 2.2low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
SEA
43.4%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.6%
32.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶34.1%
85.6
PPG
◀
86.0
79.5
18.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.0
12.9
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
13.6