May 17, 25sim 100
684
129689(H)67
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+14NY
LV
0-1
7892
NY
1-0
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ew York Liberty held off Las Vegas Aces, 92–78.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
25.6Game score
31
Pts
16
Reb
3
Ast
NY · top performer
Breanna Stewart
F · #30
23.6Game score
25
Pts
8
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at New York Liberty · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV0-1
7892
NY1-0
LV0-1NY1-0
LV
0-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 18 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 36 | 31 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -7 | |
| 35 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -8 | |
| 31 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -19 | |
| 33 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -13 | |
| 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 19 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | |
| Team | 78 | 41 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 10 | ||
| DNP: C. Bradford, M. Gustafson | ||||||||
NY
1-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +8 | |
USG%.27771 ORB%.05671 DRB%.24771 | ||||||||
| 30 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +7 | |
| 30 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +19 | |
ORB%.08986 DRB%.25386 eFG%.45529 | ||||||||
| 33 | 22 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +9 | |
| 31 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 11 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 17 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +11 | |
| 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | |
| Team | 92 | 43 | 27 | 7 | 7 | 6 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
34
FG %
49
18
Ast
27
Season series
NY wins series 2-1
May 17LV78@NY92today
LV78@NY92todayJul 9LV78@NY87
LV78@NY87Aug 14NY77@LV83
NY77@LV83Headlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ NY
Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 6:56
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 36 min30+ point game
31 PTS · 16 REB · 3 AST
NYB. Stewart
FGame leader · 27 min
25 PTS · 8 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
NY beat LV 92-78. B. Stewart paced them with 25 PTS, 8 REB, 3 AST. NY outscored the other side 28-13 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
NY vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 35 REB · 15 AST
GS 41
Bench(5)
14 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
GS 8
NYstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
74 PTS · 35 REB · 23 AST
GS 70
Bench(7)
18 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST
GS 19
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV3rd Quarter · 55.1 · 55-61
+8pp→ 17% WP
Chelsea Gray · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jewell Loyd assists)
LV4th Quarter · 6:56 · 63-66
+13pp→ 41% WP
Natasha Cloud · shooting foul
NY4th Quarter · 6:42 · 64-68
+11pp→ 80% WP
Chelsea Gray · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 20 | 13 | 25 | 20 | 78 |
| NY | 19 | 28 | 16 | 29 | 92 |
Period scoring
LV won 2 · NY won 2
20
19
Q1
Wilson 11
Sabally 6
13
28
Q2
Loyd 5
Stewart 11
25
16
Q3
Wilson 11
Stewart 6
20
29
Q4
Evans 8
Cloud 9
LV
NY
Shooting comparison
LV
NY
34%
28-82
FG
49%
35-72
34%
11-32
3PT
19%
4-21
85%
11-13
FT
86%
18-21
Play-by-play · 412 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 78·NY 92
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 78·NY 92
- Q4·18.1
Elizabeth Kitley makes 1-foot two point shot (Dana Evans assists)
·
LV 78·NY 92
- Q4·22.1
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 76·NY 92
- Q4·22.1
Tiffany Mitchell misses driving layup
LV 76·NY 92
- Q4·34.1
Kennedy Burke makes two point shot (Jaylyn Sherrod assists)
·
LV 76·NY 92
- Q4·36.0
Isabelle Harrison enters the game for Jonquel Jones
· ·
LV 76·NY 90
- Q4·36.0
Rebekah Gardner enters the game for Sabrina Ionescu
·
LV 76·NY 90
- Q4·36.0
Marquesha Davis enters the game for Leonie Fiebich
·
LV 76·NY 90
- Q4·36.0
Jaylyn Sherrod enters the game for Natasha Cloud
·
LV 76·NY 90
- Q4·54.0
Sabrina Ionescu defensive rebound
LV 76·NY 90
- Q4·56.0
Aaliyah Nye misses 23-foot three point jumper
LV 76·NY 90
- Q4·1:03
Jonquel Jones makes 10-foot two point shot (Natasha Cloud assists)
·
LV 76·NY 90
- Q4·1:14
Elizabeth Kitley enters the game for Jewell Loyd
·
LV 76·NY 88
- Q4·1:14
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for A'ja Wilson
·
LV 76·NY 88
- Q4·1:14
Tiffany Mitchell enters the game for Chelsea Gray
·
LV 76·NY 88
- Q4·1:14
Kierstan Bell enters the game for Jackie Young
·
LV 76·NY 88
- Q4·1:14
Kennedy Burke enters the game for Breanna Stewart
·
LV 76·NY 88
- Q4·1:14
Liberty Full timeout
LV 76·NY 88
- Q4·1:19
Breanna Stewart defensive rebound
LV 76·NY 88
- Q4·1:22
Jackie Young misses running pullup jump shot
LV 76·NY 88
- Q4·1:26
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
LV 76·NY 88
- Q4·1:28
Natasha Cloud misses two point shot
LV 76·NY 88
- Q4·1:46
A'ja Wilson lost ball turnover (Leonie Fiebich steals)
·
LV 76·NY 88
- Q4·1:46
A'ja Wilson vs. Leonie Fiebich
·
LV 76·NY 88
- Q4·1:48
A'ja Wilson offensive rebound
LV 76·NY 88
- Q4·1:49
Jonquel Jones blocks A'ja Wilson 's 5-foot driving layup
·
LV 76·NY 88
- Q4·2:05
Jonquel Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 76·NY 88
- Q4·2:05
Jonquel Jones makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 76·NY 87
- Q4·2:05
Jewell Loyd personal foul
LV 76·NY 86
+0.6pp
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
NY
Home
28-82
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
35-72
34
FG %
49
11-32
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-21
11-13
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-21
18
Assists
27
10
Turnovers
6
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 13 players in cohort
Jonquel JonesNY · CORB%.08986- Breanna StewartNY · FUSG%.27771
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
- Breanna StewartNY1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
NY
49.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
45.6%
34.9%
3PT %
32.6
▶35.3%
91.0
PPG
◀
85.4
86.6
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
21.7
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.4