May 17, 25sim 100
1778
9(H)92
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+17LA
LA
1-0
8467
GS
0-1
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks went into Golden State Valkyries and beat them, 84–67.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Kelsey Plum
G · #10
35.1Game score
37
Pts
2
Reb
6
Ast
GS · top performer
Temi Fagbenle
C · #14
16.7Game score
15
Pts
5
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Los Angeles Sparks at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LA1-0
8467
GS0-1
LA1-0GS0-1
LA
1-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 36 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +18 | |
| 32 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | |
| 35 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +12 | |
| 31 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +25 | |
| 40 | 37 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +17 | |
| 12 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| Team | 84 | 27 | 19 | 16 | 4 | 11 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin | ||||||||
GS
0-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -17 | |
| 32 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -17 | |
| 30 | 19 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -21 | |
| 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 17 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 23 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | |
| 27 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -16 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +9 | |
| Team | 67 | 33 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 20 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
37
19
Ast
13
Season series
GS wins series 3-1
May 17LA84@GS67today
LA84@GS67todayMay 24GS82@LA73
GS82@LA73Jun 10GS89@LA81
GS89@LA81Aug 10LA59@GS72
LA59@GS72Headlines · top performers
Game flowLA ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 8pp · 1st Quarter · 9:55
LAK. Plum
GGame leader · 40 min30+ point game
37 PTS · 2 REB · 6 AST
GST. Fagbenle
CGame leader · 32 min
15 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
LA beat GS 84-67. K. Plum led the way with 37 points and 6 assists. LA outscored the other side 18-7 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs LA
Starters vs bench
production by unitLAstarters 98% of ptsStarters(5)
82 PTS · 23 REB · 16 AST
GS 75
Bench(3)
2 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST
GS 1
GSstarters 66% of ptsStarters(5)
44 PTS · 20 REB · 10 AST
GS 32
Bench(4)
23 PTS · 13 REB · 3 AST
GS 5
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLA1st Quarter · 9:55 · 0-0
+8pp→ 45% WP
Kelsey Plum · misses driving layup
GS1st Quarter · 58.2 · 19-20
+8pp→ 56% WP
Tiffany Hayes · makes 25-foot three pointer
LA3rd Quarter · 8:07 · 46-41
+8pp→ 66% WP
Kelsey Plum · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Odyssey Sims assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 19 | 23 | 24 | 18 | 84 |
| GS | 20 | 19 | 21 | 7 | 67 |
Period scoring
LA won 3 · GS won 1
19
20
Q1
Stevens 8
Hayes 13
23
19
Q2
Hamby 7
Fagbenle 6
24
21
Q3
Plum 17
Vanloo 9
18
7
Q4
Plum 9
Billings 3
LA
GS
Shooting comparison
LA
GS
46%
29-63
FG
37%
23-63
37%
7-19
3PT
26%
9-35
90%
19-21
FT
92%
12-13
Play-by-play · 352 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 84·GS 67
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 84·GS 67
- Q4·14.0
Dearica Hamby makes two point shot
LA 84·GS 67
- Q4·15.0
Dearica Hamby offensive rebound
LA 82·GS 67
- Q4·17.2
Rickea Jackson misses 12-foot pullup jump shot
LA 82·GS 67
- Q4·41.0
Temi Fagbenle makes driving layup (Tiffany Hayes assists)
·
LA 82·GS 67
- Q4·52.1
Kelsey Plum makes driving layup (Rickea Jackson assists)
·
LA 82·GS 65
- Q4·1:09
Dearica Hamby defensive rebound
LA 80·GS 65
- Q4·1:10
Julie Vanloo misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
LA 80·GS 65
- Q4·1:32
Monique Billings defensive rebound
LA 80·GS 65
- Q4·1:33
Rickea Jackson misses driving floating jump shot
LA 80·GS 65
- Q4·1:50
Sparks defensive team rebound
LA 80·GS 65
- Q4·1:53
Monique Billings misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
LA 80·GS 65
- Q4·1:57
Rickea Jackson personal foul
LA 80·GS 65
- Q4·2:12
Kelsey Plum makes 15-foot jumper (Odyssey Sims assists)
·
LA 80·GS 65
- Q4·2:14
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 1
LA 78·GS 65
- Q4·2:14
Tiffany Hayes away from play foul
LA 77·GS 65
- Q4·2:26
Sparks defensive team rebound
LA 77·GS 65
- Q4·2:28
Kayla Thornton misses 25-foot three point jumper
LA 77·GS 65
- Q4·2:50
Dearica Hamby makes layup (Rickea Jackson assists)
·
LA 77·GS 65
−0.6pp
- Q4·3:10
Julie Vanloo bad pass (Dearica Hamby steals)
·
LA 75·GS 65
−1pp
- Q4·3:23
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
LA 75·GS 65
- Q4·3:23
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 75·GS 65
+0.5pp
- Q4·3:23
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 74·GS 65
- Q4·3:23
Tiffany Hayes personal foul
LA 73·GS 65
−2pp
- Q4·3:27
Kelsey Plum defensive rebound
LA 73·GS 65
−0.5pp
- Q4·3:30
Julie Vanloo misses 27-foot three point jumper
LA 73·GS 65
−2pp
- Q4·3:34
Tiffany Hayes offensive rebound
LA 73·GS 65
+1pp
- Q4·3:37
Odyssey Sims blocks Julie Vanloo 's 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
LA 73·GS 65
−2pp
- Q4·3:51
shot clock turnover
LA 73·GS 65
+2pp
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
GS
Home
29-63
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
23-63
46
FG %
37
7-19
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-35
19-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-13
19
Assists
13
11
Turnovers
20
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
- Dearica HambyLA16.0± 8.0low
Rebounds
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
GS
50.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
41.3%
34.3%
3PT %
32.6
▶36.1%
91.6
PPG
◀
85.4
86.4
21.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.1
16.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1