May 16, 25sim 100
2090
16(H)94
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+15MIN
MIN
1-0
9984
DAL
0-1
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx went into Dallas Wings and beat them, 99–84.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
24.9Game score
34
Pts
4
Reb
4
Ast
DAL · top performer
Arike Ogunbowale
G · #24
10.6Game score
16
Pts
2
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Dallas Wings · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN1-0
9984
DAL0-1
MIN1-0DAL0-1
MIN
1-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 29 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +20 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 30 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +14 | |
| 32 | 34 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +28 | |
| 28 | 25 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +24 | |
| 25 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +14 | |
| 20 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
| 11 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | |
| 17 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| Team | 99 | 31 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 13 | ||
DAL
0-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -8 | |
| 18 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -11 | |
| 28 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -20 | |
| 26 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -15 | |
| 30 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -19 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 31 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -15 | |
| 14 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| Team | 84 | 33 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 14 | ||
| DNP: L. Geiselsoder | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
53
FG %
45
27
Ast
15
Season series
MIN wins series 4-0
May 16MIN99@DAL84today
MIN99@DAL84todayMay 22DAL81@MIN85
DAL81@MIN85Jun 8MIN81@DAL65
MIN81@DAL65Sep 2DAL71@MIN96
DAL71@MIN96Headlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ DAL
Biggest swing: 10pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:02
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 32 min30+ point game
34 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST
DALA. Ogunbowale
GGame leader · 28 min
16 PTS · 2 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
MIN beat DAL 99-84. N. Collier paced them with 34 PTS, 4 REB, 4 AST. MIN outscored the other side 35-20 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
82 PTS · 26 REB · 20 AST
GS 71
Bench(5)
17 PTS · 5 REB · 7 AST
GS 7
DALstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 22 REB · 9 AST
GS 35
Bench(6)
26 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST
GS 23
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMIN2nd Quarter · 2:02 · 43-40
+10pp→ 71% WP
Diamond Miller · makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL3rd Quarter · 7:43 · 50-51
+8pp→ 48% WP
DiJonai Carrington · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paige Bueckers assists)
MIN3rd Quarter · 7:30 · 51-51
+9pp→ 59% WP
Courtney Williams · makes free throw 1 of 3
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 27 | 35 | 18 | 99 |
| DAL | 21 | 25 | 20 | 18 | 84 |
Period scoring
MIN won 2 · DAL won 1
19
21
Q1
Shepard 7
Harris 5
27
25
Q2
Miller 10
Ogunbowale 8
35
20
Q3
Collier 18
Carrington 5
18
18
Q4
Williams 6
Charles 10
MIN
DAL
Shooting comparison
MIN
DAL
53%
35-66
FG
45%
30-66
35%
7-20
3PT
36%
5-14
79%
22-28
FT
79%
19-24
Play-by-play · 404 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 99·DAL 84
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 99·DAL 84
- Q4·20.2
Courtney Williams enters the game for Natisha Hiedeman
·
MIN 99·DAL 84
- Q4·20.2
Lynx timeout
MIN 99·DAL 84
- Q4·20.2
Kaila Charles makes two point shot (Aziaha James assists)
·
MIN 99·DAL 84
- Q4·24.1
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu bad pass (Aziaha James steals)
·
MIN 99·DAL 82
- Q4·36.1
Bridget Carleton defensive rebound
MIN 99·DAL 82
- Q4·38.0
Aziaha James misses 20-foot two point shot
MIN 99·DAL 82
- Q4·43.0
Kaila Charles defensive rebound
MIN 99·DAL 82
- Q4·45.0
Alissa Pili misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIN 99·DAL 82
- Q4·1:03
JJ Quinerly makes 7-foot two point shot
MIN 99·DAL 82
- Q4·1:13
Diamond Miller out of bounds bad pass turnover
MIN 99·DAL 80
- Q4·1:31
Lynx defensive team rebound
MIN 99·DAL 80
- Q4·1:32
JJ Quinerly misses driving floating jump shot
MIN 99·DAL 80
- Q4·1:43
Diamond Miller makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 99·DAL 80
- Q4·1:43
Lynx offensive team rebound
MIN 98·DAL 80
- Q4·1:43
Diamond Miller misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 98·DAL 80
- Q4·1:43
Teaira McCowan shooting foul
MIN 98·DAL 80
- Q4·1:50
JJ Quinerly bad pass (Bridget Carleton steals)
·
MIN 98·DAL 80
- Q4·2:02
Natisha Hiedeman makes driving layup (Alissa Pili assists)
·
MIN 98·DAL 80
- Q4·2:16
Kaila Charles makes two point shot
MIN 96·DAL 80
- Q4·2:19
Alissa Pili bad pass (Kaila Charles steals)
·
MIN 96·DAL 78
- Q4·2:37
Kaila Charles makes 26-foot three point jumper (JJ Quinerly assists)
·
MIN 96·DAL 78
- Q4·2:51
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu enters the game for Courtney Williams
·
MIN 96·DAL 75
- Q4·2:51
Alissa Pili enters the game for Napheesa Collier
·
MIN 96·DAL 75
- Q4·2:51
Natisha Hiedeman enters the game for Jessica Shepard
·
MIN 96·DAL 75
- Q4·2:51
JJ Quinerly enters the game for Arike Ogunbowale
·
MIN 96·DAL 75
- Q4·2:51
Teaira McCowan enters the game for DiJonai Carrington
·
MIN 96·DAL 75
- Q4·2:51
Aziaha James enters the game for Maddy Siegrist
·
MIN 96·DAL 75
- Q4·2:51
Kaila Charles enters the game for Paige Bueckers
·
MIN 96·DAL 75
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
35-66
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-66
53
FG %
45
7-20
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-14
22-28
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-24
27
Assists
15
13
Turnovers
14
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 13 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
Blocks
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
DAL
50.1%
FG%
◀
44.7
46.6%
34.5%
3PT %
32.6
▶37.3%
88.4
PPG
85.4
88.9
21.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
15.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.3